Owning the issue agenda: Party strategies and vote choices in British elections

Explanations of party competition and vote choice are commonly based on the Downsian view of politics: parties maximise votes by adopting positions on policy dimensions. However, recent research suggests that British voters choose parties based on evaluations of competence rather than on ideological position. This paper proposes a theoretical account which combines elements of the spatial model with the ‘issue ownership’ approach. Whereas the issue ownership theory has focused mainly on party competition, this paper examines the validity of the model from the perspective of both parties and voters, by testing its application to recent British general elections. Our findings suggest that as parties have converged ideologically, competence considerations have become more important than ideological position in British elections.     

论神话的交流模式

神话话语的神话性,典型地反映了与经验思维完全不同的神话思维模式.对神话话语的传播过程的探讨,是研究人类文明传承机制的重要一环.神话话语的交流或传播,只有放在人类一般交流方式的总体框架内加以考察,才有可能揭示其中的本质规律.     

全覆盖预算绩效管理的内容建构和路径探讨

经济新常态下,预算绩效管理已不再仅是对支出效率评估的工具,而是成为了实现国家治理现代化的保障机制。全覆盖预算绩效管理作为构建预算绩效管理体系的重要组成部分,以目标导向为原则,一方面旨在弥补传统预算绩效中存在的问题,另一方旨在构建起包括一般公共预算绩效管理体系、其它政府预算绩效管理体系和解决政府与社会企业的"五种合作模式"存在的部分问题的预算绩效管理体系。为推动全覆盖预算绩效管理的践行,应积极推进全覆盖与全方位预算绩效管理格局紧密配合、与全过程预算绩效管理链条有机联动的路径机制。同时,弥补全覆盖预算绩效管理相关的法律不足、建立健全全覆盖预算绩效考评监督体系等相关配套措施的顶层设计,从而推进"绩效管理平面化"向"绩效管理立体化"转变、实现财政支出效率和预算绩效管理的战略规划目标。     

Do parties perceive their voter potentials correctly? Reconsidering the spatial logic of electoral competition

Political parties strive for maximizing their vote shares. One way to achieve this goal is to attract voters from competitors. A precondition for strategies aiming at attracting these voters is that parties perceive their voter potentials among their rivals' electorates correctly. Yet, hardly anything is known about such perceptions. To fill this gap, we develop analogue measures of a party's perceived and its actual voter potential for each competitor in a party system. Combining elite and mass surveys conducted in Germany, we show that perceived and actual voter potentials depend on spatial considerations but also that not all parties are able to correctly evaluate their potentials. These deviations can be traced back to differences in the perceived placement of political actors between elites and citizens. This supports the spatial logic of party competition but it also points to potential pitfalls for strategic behavior of political parties.     

Applying Stone in a Western Landscape: Ranchers,Conservationists, and Causal Stories in the “American Serengeti”

As the emergence of nongovernmental conservation efforts generates conflict among various stakeholders, the causal story that each party articulates regarding conservation and the causes of land degradation reflects their unique interests. This study uses existing literature to evaluate causal stories surrounding a contemporary conservation effort: Montana's American Prairie Reserve. Through qualitative review of web‐based documents and newspaper articles, it generates a preliminary account of key stakeholders' causal stories. The case study suggests that parties who might be disadvantaged by ascribing responsibility for environmental harms in an adversarial fashion may instead elect to articulate causal stories that are more neutral than existing approaches might forecast. The study concludes by suggesting that further development of causal story literature may enable it to better address contemporary conservation efforts.     

关于“一国两制”台湾模式的新构想

在现行“一国两制”构想用来解决台湾问题遇到阻力的情况下,本文深挖国家结构形式的理论资源,提出用“一国两制”来解决台湾问题的新构想。新构想在“一个中国”的前提下,借鉴联邦主义的某些做法,以期建构一个两岸同胞均能接受的国家统一模式。该构想扩大了“一国两制”的包容量,增强了“一国两制”的适用性,具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Ebola vaccines,evidentiary charisma and the rise of global health emergency research

Abstract

The 2013–2016 West African Ebola outbreak was both a catastrophic public health disaster and a rare research opportunity. This paper analyses how the tensions between the humanitarian imperatives of disease control and the epistemic conventions of bioscientific inquiry played out in the accelerated development, testing and licensure of Ebola vaccines. Beginning with the epidemiological projections of the disease’s spread, the paper develops the notion of evidentiary charisma to capture the power of experimental designs and data packages to marshal public health salience, recruit moral legitimacy and short-circuit scientific contestation. Attention to the charismatic dimensions of Ebola vaccine R&D helps to unpick the simultaneous appeals to exception and convention in the unfolding of a global health crisis, and to trace the normative and technical contours of the emerging paradigm of emergency research.     

Structural change versus turnpike optimality: A Polish perspective

Using a modified dynamic IO model for Poland which allows taking into account actual trends observed in recently available statistical data we compare the rate of economic growth calculated for different growth paths resulting from the model. The goal of the research was to examine the distance between the actual structure of production and the structure on the turnpike and its impact on the economic growth of the economy under study. The results of the study indicate that the impact of structural change on output takes place in three general stages. The benefits of structural change do not outbalance the corresponding costs immediately, since it takes several periods until the growth rate of those paths which are closer to the von Neumann ray become larger than the corresponding growth rate of the benchmark growth path.     

Age,period and cohort analysis in a comparative context: Political generations and political participation repertoires in Western Europe

This paper presents a method for studying age-period-cohort effects in a comparative context where repeated cross-sectional data are available covering a suitably long period of time. The method consists in the application of multi-level models with country as the higher level of analysis and random coefficients to model variables which vary at the country-level. Additionally, the application of generalized additive models (GAMs) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) provides robust empirical tests of cohort categorizations applied in this and previous studies to estimate otherwise collinear effects. To illustrate the method, I derive and test the theory that generations will be differentiated in their patterns of participation based on the ascendancy of certain repertoires in the era of their political socialization.     

对影响我国服务业发展因素的实证分析

当今世界经济，尤其是发达国家的经济发展轨迹中显示：服务业已成为各国着重发展的重要产业。这使得各国学者对服务业发展影响因素和服务业发展模式的研究逐渐兴起。本文通过对我国1994--2008年间三类服务业数据进行计量回归，得出实证模型，分析出影响我国服务业发展的重要因素。