A Two‐Level Model for Evidence Evaluation in the Presence of Zeros*

Abstract: Likelihood ratios (LRs) provide a natural way of computing the value of evidence under competing propositions. We propose LR models for classification and comparison that extend the ideas of Aitken, Zadora, and Lucy and Aitken and Lucy to include consideration of zeros. Instead of substituting zeros by a small value, we view the presence of zeros as informative and model it using Bernoulli distributions. The proposed models are used for evaluation of forensic glass (comparison and classification problem) and paint data (comparison problem). Two hundred and sixty‐four glass samples were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer method and 36 acrylic topcoat paint samples by pyrolysis gas chromatography hyphened with mass spectrometer method. The proposed LR model gave very satisfactory results for the glass comparison problem and for most of the classification tasks for glass. Results of comparison of paints were also highly satisfactory, with only 3.0% false positive answers and 2.8% false negative answers.     

走向双重维度的研究——德美法学教育的研究性及其启示

研究性教学旨在通过学生主体参与,培养学生理论研究与创新工作的能力。德美法学教育改革中逐步凸显的理论指向与实践指向平衡发展的研究性教学,对我国当前的法学教育深有启迪。借鉴德美研究性教学经验,发展适合我国法学本科研究性教学的具体模式,将为完善我国当前的本科法学教育提供新的思考。     

刑法上的因果关系探究

对刑法中的因果关系的判断应着眼于本国的司法实践。由于我国耦合式的犯罪构成模式,使得我国在刑法因果关系的判断上不可能仅是事实层面的判断,而应是事实层面和价值层面的统一。只有将这两个层面之间的关系理顺,才能对刑法上的因果关系做出合理的判断。     

Integrating Behavioral Health Care and Primary Care: Application of a Clinical and Economic Model in Culturally Diverse Communities

Although mental illness treatment protocols exist, the organization and financing of screening and treatment services inhibit access. These challenges are compounded for refugees, immigrants, and other groups vulnerable due to their ethnicity, race, or culture. By creating a system-wide, collaborative, integrated model that recognizes and addresses critical clinical and economic aspects in the delivery of services, high quality, evidence-based care can be made available to groups susceptible to the burdens of mental illness. Clinically and financially aligning primary and specialty care offers a viable alternative for improving access and quality of mental health services to vulnerable populations.     

Beyond Rational Choice: the Hot/Cool Perspective of Criminal Decision Making

This paper proposes a general framework of criminal decision making that assumes both ‘cool’ cognition and ‘hot’ affect, i.e. feelings, to influence criminal choice. Drawing from judgment and decision making research and social psychology, the hot/cool perspective extends rational choice and deterrence theories by explaining how affect is likely to influence criminal decisions alongside cognitive considerations, such as the perceived costs and benefits of crime. It is shown how the hot/cool perspective offers a more realistic account of criminal decision making processes than existing decision models and approaches and also allows for the explanation of criminal behaviors that are difficult to explain in terms of rational choice.     

Collective and Private Resources and the Inequalities of Non-violent Political Protest in European Countries

Abstract

Political participation is deemed to be a fundamental component of democratic regimes. The literature on political participation has shown that some social groups of citizens tend to be less involved in politics than other social groups, and the consequence is that the interests of these specific groups of less involved citizens are underrepresented in the political process. Given the increasing popularity of non-violent protest in contemporary democracies, it is important to understand whether political inequalities are present in this form of political engagement. In this article, we argue that non-violent protest may present inequalities, that examining the consequences of public social spending can help in understanding the cross-national differences in the levels of non-violent political protest, and that political inequalities in non-violent protest may vary according to public social spending. We test our argument using sources that include the European Values Study (1980–2009), multilevel models, and contextual data provided by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.     

Economic models as devices of policy change: Policy paradigms,paradigm shift,and performativity

Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept into play by arguing that the “performative” embedding of models in institutions is an important aspect of how paradigm shifts unfold that the current literature has neglected.     

互联网电视商业模式的著作权困境与反思

互联网电视刚面世就遭遇了不断的知识产权纠纷,其商业模式的性质各不相同,并引发了不同的侵权行为。利益平衡是知识产权法的基础性原则,司法实践中法院应当按照利益平衡的要求做出合理的判决。为了促进互联网电视制造商和著作权人之间利益的平衡,满足公众的合理需要,应理性地寻求维系利益平衡的作品管理机制和新的商业模式。     

Structural Convergence in Manufacturing Industries between Leaders and Latecomers

This article uses cross-country panel data on three-digit manufacturing to test for progressive structural convergence in industrial output mix between industrialising and industrialised economies. Regressions based on Logistic and Almost-Ideal models show that industrial deepening entails share losses for light and selected heavy manufacturing, and share gains for engineering and consumer durables. While semi-industrial economies manage to shift into petrochemical and engineering industries, the least industrialised nurture a broad spectrum of non-traditional manufacturing. Diversity in factor endowments and policy notwithstanding, growing similarity in demand and technological diffusion appear to produce weak convergence of industrial structures between developing and developed countries.     

In search of enduring information effects: Evidence from a ten-week panel experiment

The extent to which the electorate uses issue information to update their candidate evaluations over the course of political campaigns has often raised questions about citizen competence. Using a ten-week panel experiment designed to capture the low-information context of most congressional races this study contributes to our understanding of when and by what processes issue information produces enduring effects. Findings reveal that when voters need to assess an ideologically moderate candidate, they rely less on partisan cues but instead of storing issue information in long-term memory – either via a memory-based or on-line process – considerations in short-term memory remained one of the most powerful predictors of candidate evaluation, particularly when new issue information deviated from partisan norms.