Structural Convergence in Manufacturing Industries between Leaders and Latecomers

This article uses cross-country panel data on three-digit manufacturing to test for progressive structural convergence in industrial output mix between industrialising and industrialised economies. Regressions based on Logistic and Almost-Ideal models show that industrial deepening entails share losses for light and selected heavy manufacturing, and share gains for engineering and consumer durables. While semi-industrial economies manage to shift into petrochemical and engineering industries, the least industrialised nurture a broad spectrum of non-traditional manufacturing. Diversity in factor endowments and policy notwithstanding, growing similarity in demand and technological diffusion appear to produce weak convergence of industrial structures between developing and developed countries.     

In search of enduring information effects: Evidence from a ten-week panel experiment

The extent to which the electorate uses issue information to update their candidate evaluations over the course of political campaigns has often raised questions about citizen competence. Using a ten-week panel experiment designed to capture the low-information context of most congressional races this study contributes to our understanding of when and by what processes issue information produces enduring effects. Findings reveal that when voters need to assess an ideologically moderate candidate, they rely less on partisan cues but instead of storing issue information in long-term memory – either via a memory-based or on-line process – considerations in short-term memory remained one of the most powerful predictors of candidate evaluation, particularly when new issue information deviated from partisan norms.     

Electoral coordination in mixed‐member systems: Does the level of democratic experience matter?

A number of institutional and non‐institutional factors hamper electoral coordination and, hence, increase party system fragmentation in the nominal tier of mixed electoral systems. Contrary to expectations, the number of electoral parties is not lower in all old democracies. Nevertheless, the level of democratic experience modifies the effect of other variables like the type of mixed electoral system or the closeness of the races. Econometric tests evaluate this phenomenon in a diverse sample of 15 countries and a total of 57 elections with more than 10,000 observations at the district level.     

A theoretical framework for the online consumer response process The article is based on Janette Hanekom's Master's dissertation entitled A theoretical framework for the online consumer response process,Department of Communication Science,Unisa, April 2007.

Abstract

This article describes the foundation and development of a theoretical framework for the online consumer response process. It is based on theoretical criteria for web-based commercial communication and the online consumer response process. Central to this article is the development of the concept of web-based commercial communication. This includes all advertising, marketing communication, public relations and promotional messages on the World Wide Web which are intended to move the consumer through certain response phases to the point of purchasing or proceeding to any other type of action; the identification of the marketing communication paradigm shift from offline to online; and the comparison between online and traditional mass media audience characteristics. A theoretical conceptualisation of the online consumer response process is undertaken and an analysis of consumer response models and the theory of the general consumer response process is performed. This article is a theoretical exploration of the phenomenon of ‘online consumer response’ and the proposed theoretical framework is intended to address the dearth of literature on the topic.     

Predatory versus developmental rule in Africa

Political economy predicts that national leaders opt for economic development when institutions encourage them to extend their time horizons. By contrast, leaders turn predatory if they feel at risk. Leaders are most able to bear risk right upon taking office, but this can be offset by a perception of high volatility in office holding or by concern about catastrophic losses. Political institutions can therefore discourage predation by fostering recurrent, predictable replacement of leaders without harsh payback for ex-leaders who acted developmentally. Cataloguing all national leadership transitions in Africa since 1960, the article demonstrates that electoral cycles, term limits and the prospect of judgement before international tribunals have lately led to declines in the volatility of top office holding and in the risk of catastrophic loss to the occupants. These new institutions have yet to establish full credibility, but they show promise of altering African leaders' risk assessments to encourage more developmental rule.     

“抢劫致人死亡”研究

"抢劫致人死亡",是抢劫罪法定刑升格条件之一,由于涉及到行为人的生命健康安全,司法机关不得不慎重认定"致人死亡"的结果是否可归咎于行为人实施的抢劫行为。要解决好抢劫致人死亡行为具体认定,必须要先解决好行为人对死亡结果的罪过形式、抢劫行为与死亡结果之间的因果关系和致人死亡中"人"的范围。只有做到这样,才能具体认定"抢劫致人死亡"情形。     

Caught in the middle? How voters react to spatial indifference

According to one of the tenets of the Spatial Theory of Voting (SToV), spatial indifference is positively associated with abstention. However, the political behaviour literature has not yet fully settled whether this is always the case and, if not, why individuals still vote despite the differential utility they extract from the two closest candidates equals zero. In this letter we explore the effect of spatial indifference on political behaviour by analysing survey data from American elections since 1972 and through a survey experiment that randomizes candidates’ ideological position on different dimensions. Findings show that spatially indifferent individuals are more likely to abstain—mainly moderate voters. Yet, around two-thirds still vote for a candidate. We advance two tentative explanations: First, when spatially equidistant, individuals that vote are more likely to consider valence attributes. Second, they are more likely to resort to a directional logic. Results have implications for our understanding of the spatial models and, in particular, of the behaviour of spatially equidistant individuals, which represent a non-negligible group of the electorate.     

社会治理创新的结果差异研究--基于多项目实践过程的实证分析

从"主体-客体"分析视角出发,构建地方政府、社会力量、创新项目三个维度的社会治理创新结果影响因素研究模型,通过采用多值定性比较分析方法对30个社会治理创新案例进行分析,探究影响社会治理创新结果差异的因素及路径模式。研究发现:社会治理创新结果差异是多种因素的交叠效应;项目影响力是社会治理创新结果差异的基础性条件;公民参与对社会治理创新结果差异影响不显著;稳定存续型、内生动力持久型、阶段性目标主导型和治理效果不佳型是影响社会治理创新结果差异的主要路径模式。     

Incorporating Co-offending in Sentencing Models: An Analysis of Fines Imposed on Antitrust Offenders

Analyses of sentencing (and other criminal justice processes such as the decision to prosecute, plea bargaining, and contact with the police) often use the isolated individual as the unit of analysis. However, the criminal justice system often processes either offenses or court cases rather than persons. If court cases always involved one individual, this would have little impact. However, offenses involving co-offending—two or more persons acting together—comprise a substantial proportion of criminal activity (Reiss, 1980, 1986). Depending on the prevalence of co-offending, it may be very likely that two or more individuals involved in the same case will be selected as members of the same sample of criminal justice or criminological data. Unless it can be shown that both the individual-level variables of co-offenders and their error terms are mutually independent, analyses based on methods such as ordinary least-squares multiple regression would violate the underlying assumptions of such models. However, alternatives to linear models assuming either type of independence are available. Among the most useful of these are mixed models, specifically those assuming compound symmetry. This is illustrated with an analysis of fines imposed on criminally convicted antitrust offenders. These models may yield results which are substantially different than those from models which ignore co-offending. In a model of fines imposed on antitrust offenders, models which ignore co-offending generally overstate both estimates and statistical significance of offense-level variables and understate those of offender-level variables.