Narcotics use,property crime,and dealing: Structural dynamics across the addiction career

Structural-equation modeling is used to test causal relationships between narcotics addiction and the associated cost-support activities of property crime and drug dealing across four critical periods of the addiction career. It is argued that structural-equation methodology yields greater insight into the causal dynamics of such activities than the typical methodologies of comparing means and proportions. Using structural coefficients of longitudinal models to infer causal relationships and stability, it is found that (1) dealing is often a predictor of future narcotics involvement; (2) narcotics use, property crime, and dealing are mutually interrelated during periods of elevated narcotics use and are not related during periods of reduced narcotics use; (3) dealing appears to be the most stable of the three variables, although narcotics use and property crime show appreciable stability as well; and (4) property crime and dealing appear to be inversely related to a moderate extent. The relevance of these findings to the understanding of the economic behavior of addicts during the initiation and cessation of addiction, relapse, and maturing out is discussed.     

Unemployment,imprisonment, and the stability of punishment hypothesis: Some results using cointegration and error correction models

A version of the stability of punishment hypothesis is used to illustrate the concept of cointegration and its relationship to error correction models. The hypothesis is then tested and rejected using data from England and Wales. Finally, a dynamic time-series model relating imprisonment to convictions, crime, and Unemployment is developed and tested.The empirical results in this work are based upon those originally prepared for a paper to be given by the author and Steve Box at the meeting of the American Society of Criminology held in Montreal in November 1987. Steve Box died in September 1987 before it could be completed.The paper is dedicated to his memory and it is hoped that he would have approved its content, if not, perhaps, the dryness of its form.     

Party survival in parliament: Explaining party durability in lower-house parliaments

Approximately 70 per cent of the parties emerging in the post-Second World War era failed to keep their seats in parliament. Party survival is an important issue, especially in parliamentary democracies, where parties are the means through which voters’ preferences are linked to government policy outputs. Using an event history modeling framework, and data from 37 democracies, covering 830 parties, this article analyses two questions regarding party durability. First, when do parties fail? Second, which parties survive longer? The article shows that most parties fail at the beginning of their lifespan, and disappear before the end of their fourth term in parliament. Moreover, it is found that moderate policy position, distinct ideology and participation in governing coalitions increase the duration of party survival, even when controlling for party size. This article contributes to the extensive literature about the electoral benefits of ideological moderation and distinct policy positions by showing the long-term benefits of these factors. Moreover, the long-term benefit of party participation in government in terms of survival overcomes the short-term cost of ruling.     

Debunking the myth of a “Traditional” gender gap in the electoral support for Silvio Berlusconi in Italy (1994–2013)

Despite increasing gender realignment in voting behavior of most Western democracies, women are usually believed to have disproportionally supported Silvio Berlusconi's right-wing party in Italy. Using a pooled dataset based on six post-election surveys (one for each general election between 1994 and 2013), we find only spurious evidence for such a traditional gender gap in voting. Going beyond a mere “gender gap” approach, we then look for possible intra-gender differentiation. We find that housewives tend to present those attitudes – voting for the center-right, more leader-oriented –, which were traditionally imputed to “women”. Showing the importance of this “intra-gender occupational gap”, we conclude that heterogeneity among women should be taken more seriously by research that combines gender and electoral studies.     

Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations.     

风险升高与风险降低

由当代客观归责理论提出来的风险升高和风险降低理论都值得进一步反思。首先,任何与法益侵害结果具有因果关系的行为都必然在客观上升高了该结果出现的风险。其次,所谓风险降低理论实际上包含了三种应当运用完全不同的原理来加以解决的情况：第一,在＂真正的风险降低＂中,结果与行为之间根本不存在因果关系。第二,在行为人误认为其行为降低了风险的情形中,应从主观归责而非客观归责的角度出发排除行为的犯罪性。第三,在损害替换的情形中,应当在肯定行为符合构成要件的前提下,运用紧急避险或推定的被害人承诺的原理来探讨行为的违法性问题。最后,对于＂扳道工＂案件,不能以风险降低为名运用假定的因果流程来否定客观归责的成立。     

Circulación de modelos y centralidad de los códigos civiles en el derecho privado latinoamericano

This work presupposes the existence of a family of laws which can be situated in the extensive system of codified laws based on the Roman tradition, and within it a Latin American group, and seeks to organize the material within the context in which it has been produced, with the aim of achieving greater comprehension of the formation of the private law in Latin America, highlighting the models and influences used, the intervention of jurists and the significance it took on for the different societies, the characteristics of the mentioned process and the causes for its early or tardy consolidation.     

跨域治理的概念谱系与研究模型

跨域治理是指跨域事务的利益相关者，为了实现公共目标和解决共同危机所展开的合作与管理活动。在阐释跨域治理概念谱系的基础上，讨论了跨域治理的过程、结构与整合模型，以期从文献整理分析的角度对跨域治理进行深入的理解和探讨，并展望跨域治理研究的发展方向及前景。     

关于开展法哲学研究的几个重要问题

文章阐述了法哲学研究的意义,概述了近20年来我国在该领域的主要成果和不足,提出了为构建中国当代法哲学有可供选择的三种研究方式,论述了并应处理好诸如指导思想与理论内容、传统与现实、国际化与本土化等的关系。     

比较刑事诉讼法的研究进路：从划分模式到探求共性

目前在世界范围内刑事诉讼法比较研究的主流进路是划分刑事诉讼程序模式。达马斯卡的审问/对抗模式和阶层/同位模式是这种进路的代表。唯模式论者往往关注刑事诉讼程序的差异而忽视它们的相似之处。本文参考英格拉姆对于不同法域刑事诉讼程序共性的探讨,提出比较刑事诉讼法还应采用探求共性的进路,寻求相互理解的比较。内容提要：目前在世界范围内刑事诉讼法比较研究的主流进路是划分刑事诉讼程序模式。达马斯卡的审问/对抗模式和阶层/同位模式是这种进路的代表。唯模式论者往往关注刑事诉讼程序的差异而忽视它们的相似之处。本文参考英格拉姆对于不同法域刑事诉讼程序共性的探讨,提出比较刑事诉讼法还应采用探求共性的进路,寻求相互理解的比较。