Selective Attrition and the Age-Crime Relationship

One of the most widely accepted findings in criminology is the strong curvilinear association between age and crime. Studies have indicated that involvement in criminal behavior rises throughout the teenage years until it levels off during the late teenage and early adult years and then declines throughout the remainder of the life span. Many of these studies, however, have relied on cross-sectional or repeated cross-sectional officially recorded data. In recent years, researchers investigating changes in self-reported criminal behavior among the same individuals as they age have discovered that involvement in criminal behavior actually declines during the adolescent years. Although there are a number of possible explanations for this phenomenon, we explore the extent to which this decline can be attributed to selective or non-random panel attrition.     

A Bayesian Approach to Age Estimation in Modern Americans from the Clavicle*

Abstract: Clavicles from 1289 individuals from cohorts spanning the 20th century were scored with two scoring systems. Transition analysis and Bayesian statistics were used to obtain robust age ranges that are less sensitive to the effects of age mimicry and developmental outliers than age ranges obtained using a percentile approach. Observer error tests showed that a simple three‐phase scoring system proved the least subjective, while retaining accuracy levels. Additionally, significant sexual dimorphism was detected in the onset of fusion, with women commencing fusion at least a year earlier than men (women transition to fusion at approximately 15 years of age and men at 16 years). Significant secular trends were apparent in the onset of skeletal maturation, with modern Americans transitioning to fusion approximately 4 years earlier than early 20th century Americans and 3.5 years earlier than Korean War era Americans. These results underscore the importance of using modern standards to estimate age in modern individuals.     

A balance between candidate- and party-centric representation under mixed-member systems: The evidence from voter behavior in Taiwan

Mixed-member systems are usually defined as electoral systems that combine SMDP and CLPR, both of which are more likely to induce party reputation-seeking. Building on the literature of electoral institutions, this article provides an explanation of how mixed-member systems structure voter behavior and achieve a balance between candidate- and party-centric representation. Using Taiwan as a case of MMS, this article tests hypotheses against survey data and investigates the determinants of voting decisions for the two ballots. By employing a Bayesian bivariate probit model, this article shows that, first, partisan factors affect voter behavior in both nominal and list ballots. However, it is affective rather than rational considerations for political parties that play the major role. Second, personal reputation influences voters' choices of the nominal and list vote, but only negative elements matter for the list vote. Finally, there is a moderately positive correlation between the two ballots, which potentially results from affective, partisan considerations.     

Are repeatedly victimized households different?

Much recent victimization research has concentrated on predicting who will be victimized, with relatively little concern for the number of events suffered. This study turns to the latter issue by focusing attention on the prediction of repeat victimization. A statistical methodology is employed which allows for the explicit recognition that an initial victimization must occur prior to any repeat event. When applied to property crime information from the 1984 British Crime Survey, we find little evidence that repeat victims have distinctive characteristics compared with single victims. Nevertheless, households with characteristics which protect from victimization, in the sense of giving rise to a low initial risk, have this protection reduced for a subsequent event. Moreover, comparing two households with different risk characteristics, their repeat victimization probabilities are more similar than were those for the initial occurrence.     

美国民众涉台观点的Biprobit研究——基于美国人对华态度实证调研

自从台湾问题形成以来,美国历任总统都实行“双轨政策”,一方面承认“台湾是中国的一部分”,但又从没有放弃对“台独”的支持,如对台军售。了解美国民众涉台观点的形成和受到哪些因素的影响对我国制定相应的涉台政策有着重要意义。本文先后采用univariateprobit、bivari-ateprobit和seeminglyunrelatedbivariateprobit模型对美国民众在台湾省地位的认同和对台军售支持进行回归分析。分析结果显示美国民众对中国台湾省地位的认同显著地影响对台军售支持,认同“台湾是中国一部分”的美国民众在对台军售方面的支持也显著要高。这充分证实了美国是典型的现实主义者,他利用台湾问题来阻滞中国大陆的发展和海峡两岸的和平统一。     

Court processing and sentencing of drinking drivers: Using new methodologies

Driving while intoxicated (DWI) offenses provide a unique focal point for research in criminology. In recent years, legislative and media attention has increasingly focused on the harmful acts of drunk drivers, but little is known of the characteristics of individuals arrested for driving while drunk or of the court processing and sanctioning of such offenders. The research presented here uses a variety of methodological techniques to analyze individual-level court processing data for persons convicted of DWI on a revoked license. We find that the population of persons processed for this offense have certain characteristics which are not unlike those of persons processed for street crimes. Further, we find evidence of differential sanctioning related to ethnicity and level of education. We conclude with a call for future investigation of court processing to understand better why the DWI legislative mandate is being applied differently across social groups.     

Delegation of Clinical Authority,Administrative Culture and Policy Adoption: A Comparative Analysis

Numerous countries have adopted reforms that allow medical personnel other than physicians to engage in tasks that traditionally were exclusively performed by physicians. This policy is controversial because it challenges the medical profession’s traditional boundaries. This study is an exercise in comparative policy research based on the experience of 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. It evaluates the contribution of different structural factors – socioeconomic, cultural, and institutional – to policy adoption. Based on both quantitative analysis and an examination of how delegation unfolded in Israel, the role of administrative culture is highlighted: a category that combines cultural legacies and institutional properties in explaining policy adoption. It is argued that because, in entrepreneurial administrative cultures, administrators are more likely to possess a managerial mindset than in Rechtsstaat cultures, and also have more institutional leeway for action, delegation is more likely to be adopted in the former.     

Estimation and evidence in forensic anthropology: age-at-death

A great deal has previously been written about the use of skeletal morphological changes in estimating ages-at-death. This article looks in particular at the pubic symphysis, as it was historically one of the first regions to be described in the literature on age estimation. Despite the lengthy history, the value of the pubic symphysis in estimating ages and in providing evidence for putative identifications remains unclear. This lack of clarity primarily stems from the fact that rather ad hoc statistical methods have been applied in previous studies. This article presents a statistical analysis of a large data set (n = 1766) of pubic symphyseal scores from multiple contexts, including anatomical collections, war dead, and victims of genocide. The emphasis is in finding statistical methods that will have the correct "coverage."Coverage" means that if a method has a stated coverage of 50%, then approximately 50% of the individuals in a particular pubic symphyseal stage should have ages that are between the stated age limits, and that approximately 25% should be below the bottom age limit and 25% above the top age limit. In a number of applications it is shown that if an appropriate prior age-at-death distribution is used, then "transition analysis" will provide accurate "coverages," while percentile methods, range methods, and means (+/-standard deviations) will not. Even in cases where there are significant differences in the mean ages-to-transition between populations, the effects on the stated age limits for particular "coverages" are minimal. As a consequence, more emphasis needs to be placed on collecting data on age changes in large samples, rather than focusing on the possibility of inter-population variation in rates of aging.     

Curbing Corruption in Public Administration: A Case Study from Italy

The aim of this article is to verify whether the historic sentence, no. 500/1999 of the Italian Legitimacy Court (Corte di Cassazione) in Plenary Session, may have contributed to diminishing bribery in Italy, by increasing the area of liability for both civil servants and the public administration. The empirical analysis is based on a case study conducted in Sicily, in the province of Catania, using a unique data set. The main results of the article are: paying bureaucrats by means of an incentive wage regimes may not be effective in reducing corruption; an extension of the liability rule for the public administration and civil servants may discourage the phenomenon of bribery; and, the perfect specification of property rights helps to reduce corruption.     

Persistence of innovation: stylised facts and panel data evidence

This paper investigates whether firms innovate persistently or discontinuously over time using an innovation panel data set on German manufacturing and service firms for the period 1994–2002. It turns out that innovation behaviour is permanent at the firm level to a very large extent. Using a dynamic random effects discrete choice model and a new estimator recently proposed by Wooldridge (2005), I further shed some light on the driving forces for this phenomenon. The econometric results show that past innovation experience is an important determinant for manufacturing as well as for service sector firms, and hence confirm the hypothesis of true state dependence. In addition, the results highlight the important role of knowledge provided by skilled employees and unobserved individual heterogeneity in explaining the persistence of innovation.