Intellectual and developmental disabilities and Ontario’s forensic inpatient system: a population-based cohort study

Individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) in forensic inpatient beds are both complex and understudied. Previous studies have been limited and largely based on smaller clinical samples. We used data from a population-based cohort of Ontario adults with IDD (H-CARDD cohort, n?=?66,000) to describe their prevalence in forensic inpatient beds during 2005–2015 and compare their demographic and clinical profiles with non-IDD forensic patients. Results show that forensic patients with IDD and without IDD have similar profiles, with the exception that patients with IDD are more likely to have a psychiatric disorder and to be younger, rural, and have high or very high morbidity. Strong support was found for disproportionate admission: individuals with IDD are 12.2% of forensic inpatients but only 0.8% of the general population (d?=?1.57). Support for disproportionate utilization was less dramatic and mixed. Little difference was found in terms of the per cent of longer-stay (treatment) admissions or multiple forensic admissions; however, patients with IDD did have longer number of bed days over 10 years (averaging 220.6 days more, d?=?0.28). A better understanding of the barriers to discharge for individuals with IDD will support implementation of appropriate pathways out of the hospital.     

AGE,PERIOD, AND COHORT EFFECTS ON DEATH PENALTY ATTITUDES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1974–2014

In this article, we further the understanding of both changes in public opinion on capital punishment in the United States and changes in the factors associated with public opinion on the death penalty. Support for the death penalty may be motivated by events happening during specific time periods, and it can vary across birth cohorts as a result of cohort‐specific socialization processes, demographic changes, and formative events that are specific to each generation. An explication of the sources of and variation in death penalty attitudes over time would benefit from the accounting for the age of the respondent, the year of the survey response, and the birth cohort of the respondent. We improve on previous research by using multiple approaches including hierarchical age–period–cohort models and data from the General Social Survey (N = 41,474) to examine changes in death penalty attitudes over time and across birth cohorts. The results showed curvilinear age effects, strong period effects, and weak cohort effects on death penalty support. The violent crime rate explained much of the variation in support for the death penalty across periods. The examination of subgroup differences suggests that support for the death penalty is becoming concentrated among Whites, Protestants, and Republicans.     

War,democratization, and generational cohort effects on participation in Japan

Studies show that both democratization and war mobilization boost levels of participation enduringly among members of the generational cohort that come of age around the time. But little is known about the relative effects of war mobilization and democratization on long-term participation rates among impressionable generations that experience both. We address this question by examining generational cohort effects by gender, drawing on newly available data on the case of Japan. Age-period-cohort analyses of the Survey on Japanese Value Orientations (1973–2013) show that the increase in lifelong participation rates of the “war generation” over prewar generations was much greater for men than for women, thus suggesting that the high rates of participation among members of this cohort are driven more by mobilization than by democratization. This finding yields significant implications for the analysis of democratic consolidation in different parts of the world.     

Questioning generational replacement. An age,period and cohort analysis of electoral volatility in the Netherlands, 1971–2010

Political behavior has been changing all over Western Europe and electoral volatility is one of the facets of politics in which this change is apparent. Theories on stabilization of political attitudes and behavior in lifetime and the slow rate at which change in the electoral arena is found to proceed, have led to the assumption of generational replacement as the mechanism driving change. The Netherlands, however, provide a remarkably different case of this trend in electoral volatility. The country has shifted from an example of how cleavages stabilize politics to one of the most electorally volatile countries in Europe. The Dutch surge in electoral volatility thus contrasts with expectations of a slow process driven by generational replacement. Starting from this apparent contradiction between the evolution of volatility in the Netherlands and theories on generational replacement, this article investigates time effects of electoral volatility. The study is based on an age, period and cohort analysis on the repeated cross-sectional data of the Dutch Parliamentary Election Studies, 1971–2010. Based on characteristics of such repeated cross-sectional data, individuals are cross-classified in birth cohorts and election years respectively, which overcomes the identification problem inherent in cohort analyses. Results of a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model (CCREM) indicate that, contrary to the hypothesis of new generations causing the increase in volatility, the Dutch change can be attributed primarily to period effects. As such, the analyses indicate that a general shift in the Dutch electorate has caused the growth in volatility and that supply-side factors should probably be analyzed when trying to explain electoral volatility.     

Selective incapacitation and the Philadelphia cohort data

The University of Pennsylvania study of delinquency in a Philadelphia birth cohort has been described byNewsweek as perhaps the most influential piece of criminal justice research in the last decade (March 23, 1981). Many have construed the findings as showing that, if imprisonment were focused on the minority of offenders with especially bad prognoses, the rate of crime could be reduced substantially. But others have taken the opposite view that the cohort data, far from endorsing such a selective incapacitation strategy, might actually provide strong evidence that such an approach is futile. Through some further analyses of the Philadelphia data, we attempt to clarify their policy implications.     

Continuity in crime: Sex and age differences

This study deals primarily with the question of continuity in serious criminality. The study follows a cohort consisting of 15,117 individuals from the age of 15 years through the age of 30 years. The age-based transition probabilities are studied, both for males and for females, showing that the transitions for females conform to a first-order Markov chain, so that the original matrices can be seen as estimates from a single parent matrix. This was not the case for males. The predictive power of prior criminality for later transition probabilities is also studied. Finally, the difference between stating that a given percentage will relapse in crime and the ability to make real prediction is emphasized.     

Subterranean Sources of Juvenile Delinquency in China: Evidence from Birth Cohort Surveys

This article examines possible reasons for the dramatic rise in Chinese juvenile delinquency rates that have occurred since the start of economic reform. The article focuses on the degree to which relatively recent modifications in the ideology and practice of Chinese communism have engendered new social pressures and strains on young people. Delinquents’ social values are compared with those of non-delinquent youth, drawing heavily from data collected in a longitudinal birth cohort study. The dataset is assessed for evidence of subterranean values; i.e., subculture-based reflections of principles found within the dominant political culture; based on the theory that youthful deviance and delinquency in China are fueled primarily by the relatively rapid diffusion of often-contradictory market-based precepts. The lingering impact of Maoism is also assessed, particularly with regard to incongruous ideological influences on youth.

Risk assessment vs real prediction: The prediction problem and public trust

Confusing risk assessment and the prediction of individual behavior has led to false claims which, if translated into juvenile court or adult sentencing policies (selective incapacitation, for example), may lead to further erosion in public confidence in the justice system. Considerable emphasis has been placed on the consequences of false positives in the literature and in this paper. The false negative has different but equally damaging effects because the impression may be given that increasing the severity of sanctions for selected serious offenders is the solution to juvenile delinquency and adult crime. Analysis of official police records for three birth cohorts from Racine, Wisconsin, reveals that, although high-risk groups produce a disproportionate share of the delinquent and criminal behavior recorded in police reports and juveniles in high-risk groups continue into adult crime disproportionately to others, serious juvenile offenders still account for only a portion of the serious offenses that will ultimately be committed by adults. Therefore, selective incapacitation of early offenders may take only a small bite out of crime. When referrals rather than police contacts were utilized as the predictor variable, there was little difference in predictive efficiency.     

An economic model of social sensitivity: The case of individual criminal behavior

In general, economists have modeled criminal behavior as a problem in time allocation under uncertainty. Their Friedman-Savage utility models have been based on the binomial probability distribution and then tested using aggregate data on crime rates and neglect the nonpecuniary aspects of crime. This paper overcomes the shortcomings of previous work. Specifically, criminal activity is modeled with an underlying geometric probability process and explicitly accounts for the moral and social compromise involved in becoming a criminal. The empirical model enables the quantification of the criminal's moral and social sensitivity using data based on a consolidated file of police records and a cohort survey of criminals and noncriminals. On the basis of this unique data set, it is found that the included individual criminals are risk averse and that gang membership reduces social sensitivity.