The Structure and Stability of Externalizing and Internalizing Problem Behavior During Early Adolescence

The first aim of this study was to examine the structure of externalizing and internalizing problem behavior during early adolescence. Our second aim was to determine the stability of these problems for boys and for girls over time. A total of 650, 13–14-year-olds filled out (an expanded version of) the Youth Self-Report [YSR; Manual for the Youth Self-Report and 1991 Profile. Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, Burlington] 2 times with a 1-year interval. By using confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) to test a series of competing models, a hierarchical model provided the best representation of the structure of problem behavior at both Time 1 and Time 2: externalizing and internalizing problem behavior represent distinct aspects but the model also demonstrates the existence of comorbidity at a higher level. This model appeared to be stable over time for both boys and girls. The relative stability of problem behavior was found to be high for boys and girls. Absolute stability for both externalizing and internalizing problems appeared to be higher for boys scoring in the lower range of problem behavior. Senior Researcher, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. Received PhD in social sciences, University of Amsterdam. Major research interests include problem behavior, family relations, and peer relations during adolescence. Full Professor, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. Received PhD in social sciences: child and family studies, from University of Nijmegen. Major research interests include adolescent social development, problem behavior, and family relations during adolescence. Assistant Professor, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Received PhD in psychology, University of Amsterdam. Major research interests include family influence on childhood illness and problem behavior.     

紧急状态入宪的宪法学思考

把“戒严”改为“紧急状态”成为 2 0 0 4年修宪的焦点之一。本文从五个方面对紧急状态入宪进行宪法学思考 :紧急状态的内涵和外延比戒严更能反映社会现实的宪法要求 ;将戒严修改为紧急状态是宪法职能转变的标志之一 ;紧急状态入宪使得国家紧急权具有正当性 ;紧急状态入宪整合了我国现有法律体系中的各项具体紧急状态立法 ,为制定《紧急状态法》提供了宪法依据 ;紧急状态入宪丰富了宪法秩序的内涵。     

Parity,Power and Representative Politics: The Elusive Pursuit of Gender Equality in Europe

In recent years the concept of parity democracy has rapidly risen up the European political agenda. Using a threefold typology of sex-quotas, this article undertakes a classification of the measures taken by the 15 old E.U. member states to improve the gender balance in representative assemblies. This is then used as the basis for an exploration of the advantages and disadvantages of the parity approach as a tool to promote gender equality, including the constitutional obstacles which stand in its way. The article goes on to present a comparative study of several national systems in which attempts to achieve parity democracy have been pursued, concluding that, in order to maximise their effectiveness, parity measures must operate within a system of unbiased political structures and be properly adjusted to suit the particularities of individual national electoral regimes.     

宪政文化在近代中国的发展及其启示

根深蒂固的传统文化中心主义和"富强为体、宪政为用"的实用理性主义使近代中国的宪政建设多了几分曲折与坎坷。宪政的先声———自由主义的有效性在进入中国之初就潜伏着问题,这些问题消解了它的真正内涵,导致了一种文化上的误读。中国只有传统文化与宪政文化有机结合,才能结出幸福之果。     

宪法监督制度及其完善——《监督法》草案有关宪法监督制度缺位之思考

2002年8月底首次提交人大审议的<监督法>草案,标志着人大对"一府两院"监督的法制化和规范化,但其仍然还有许多议题未获得明确和解决;其中宪法监督制度的缺位就是一大遗憾.建立宪法监督机构本应是<监督法>的首要解决问题,如果监督法回避这个问题,就不能起到其应有的作用,究其原因主要为,如果在人大内设立一个专门委员会,就会出现一个理论上的矛盾,当权力机关自身违宪,这个委员会该怎么处理.按照现行宪法的规.定,专门委员会不能对权力机关实施监督,也不能对违宪问题作出处理.同时,如果在全国人大之外或之上设立这样的机构,显然有违现行体制,原因在于人大本身就是负责监督宪法和法律实施,怎么可能在其之上或之外再设立一个机关?笔者以为,宜在我国设立全国人民代表大会领导下的与人大常委并列的宪法监督委员会,实施宪法监督职能;在三者职权划分上,全国人民代表大会仅负责宪法的制定、修改与废除以及其他立法之外的职能,其他立法职能委托全国人大常务委员会执行;全国人大宪法监督委员会负责实施宪法监督.     

改革是社会主义中国的强国之路——邓小平改革理论探析

改革是邓小平理论最重要的内容,是决定当代中国命运的历史性决策,是新时期我国最鲜明的特征。本文系统探讨分析了邓小平关于我国社会主义改革的必然性、迫切性,改革的对象、目标和性质,以及改革同发展与稳定的关系。这对于深入学习邓小平理论,深化我国改革具有重要的现实意义。     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

The Politics of Universalisation: Establishing National Health Services in Southern Europe

Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain have enacted reform laws during the last 20 years with the intention of turning their health insurance systems into national health services. Universalisation of access to public health care was at the centre of the political debates which led to the passing of the reform laws. This article analyses the policy-making processes that allowed for such institutional change, as well as achievements and shortcomings of the implementation processes that followed. The analysis draws on the insights of the actor-centred neo-institutionalist approach in the policy sciences.     

Bagehot Smiling: Gordon Brown's ‘New Constitution’ and the Revolution that Did Not Happen

The MPs expenses scandal that erupted in May 2009 has certainly rekindled interest in the next stage of constitutional reform and democratic renewal in Britain. This article examines how Gordon Brown's tenure as Prime Minister has differed from Tony Blair's in relation to the ‘new politics’ narrative. It argues that despite his long‐term personal commitment to major constitutional reforms, the role of crises in recalibrating the political opportunity structure and the manner in which electoral incentives can alter elite attitudes to institutional change that Brown's tenure can be characterised by optimism followed by timidity. Gordon Brown may have flown a few kites in relation to a written constitution, electoral reform, English devolution and the future of the House of Lords but he has left things far too late for a ‘constitutional moment’. Brown may have the political inclination but he lacks the capacity to deliver far‐reaching reform; Cameron is likely to have the capacity but not the inclination.     

中美复合战略稳定关系:建构依据、基本框架与发展趋势

中美战略稳定关系已经超越经典战略稳定性,向着复合战略稳定关系的方向演化。建构中美复合战略稳定关系是稳定两国关系的客观需要。彼此战略竞争加剧给中美之间非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性带来负面影响。在美国提高核力量于国家安全战略中的地位、将核武器重新作为霸权工具的背景下,中美战略稳定性面临挑战。特朗普政府对中国挑起贸易争端,经贸关系在中美关系中的“稳定器”和“压舱石”作用减弱,建构中美复合战略稳定关系的必要性凸显。中美之间经济深度相互依存,在维护国际体系稳定方面具有共同利益,这为建构中美复合战略稳定关系奠定了坚实的基础。中美复合战略稳定关系框架包括建立在非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性、双方经济的深度相互依存、战略互信、双方对话交流与合作机制等四根支柱,其中以非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性为核心支柱。虽然中美战略互信存在短板,但随着中国战略核力量的进步、中美经济相互依存的继续维持和双方对话交流与合作机制的成熟和完善,中美复合战略稳定关系将不断巩固。