城市消费舒适物的产业结构升级效应研究——基于人才集聚的中介作用

消费舒适物不只是城市经济活动的附属物，更是吸引人力资本集聚、驱动产业结构升级的重要因素。本文利用中国282个城市面板数据，研究了城市消费舒适物对产业结构升级的影响及其作用机制。结果显示：从总体上看，城市消费舒适物对产业结构升级具有促进作用。从中介效应看，人才集聚是考察城市消费舒适物对当地产业结构升级影响的重要渠道。从空间效应看，存在空间溢出效应，也即是周边地区消费舒适度提高，也有利于本地区产业结构升级。在新的发展格局下，注重城市消费舒适物建设，发挥其区域联动性，使之成为创新高地建设和产业结构升级的重要支撑。     

Negative voting and party polarization: A classic tragedy

Elections around the globe attest to the persistence of polarization in democratic politics. Popular support for antagonistic elite strategies defies standard predictions of ideological convergence. This paper develops a new solution to the theoretical puzzle: The centrifugal drive in representative democracy is a byproduct of voters’ disposition to evaluate policy platforms on the basis of issue positions that they dislike—to wit, negative voting. While reasonable individually, this behavior backfires collectively as elections dominated by negativity produce more polarized legislatures. Quite tragically, party polarization ultimately reflects an uncoordinated struggle of the electorate to avoid the worst rather than to pursue the best. Support for these claims comes from a theoretical model and a large comparative analysis of vote choice and party platforms. The evidence also favors the negativity model over earlier spatial models of elections. In light of negativity, normative concerns about polarization and democratic representation stand to be reconsidered.     

Estimating postmortem interval for human cadavers in a sub‐tropical climate using UV‐Vis‐near‐infrared Spectroscopy

Estimating postmortem interval (PMI) of surface found skeletal remains is challenging. This novel study used UV‐Vis‐NIR spectroscopy to scan soil collected from cadaver decomposition islands (CDIs) ranging from 15‐ to 963‐d postmortem and control soils. A decomposition product spectra model (DPS model) was constructed by deducting the control soil spectra from the CDI soil spectra for the estimation of postmortem indices: PMI (d), ADD₄, ADD₁₀, and ADD₂₀. The DPS model (n = 55) was calibrated and subjected to a full cross‐validation. Calibration R² and RPD for the DPS model ranged from 0.97 to 0.99 and from 6.1 to 9.9, respectively, for the four postmortem interval indices. Validation R² and RPD for the DPS model ranged from 0.73 to 0.80 and from 1.9 to 2.2, respectively. The DPS model estimated postmortem intervals for three test CDIs in a clay soil under perennial grassland (test set 1; n = 3) and six CDIs in a sandy soil under a loblolly pine forest (test set 2; n = 6). Test set 1 had PMI prediction ranges from ?69 to ?117 days, ?796 to +832 ADD₄, +552 to +2672 ADD₁₀, and ?478 to ?20 ADD₂₀ of observed PMI. Test set 2 PMI prediction ranged from ?198 to ?65 days, ?9923 to +2629 ADD₄, ?6724 to +1321 ADD₁₀, and ?2850 to +540 ADD₂₀ of observed PMI. Test set 2 had poor predictions for two CDIs, for all measures of postmortem indices resulting in discussion of sampling depth, effect of body mass index (BMI), and scavenging.     

安源精神：中国工人运动革命精神的典范

长期以来，安源精神未引起社会足够的重视，其历史地位也未得到全面的揭示。研究从中国共 产党早期工人运动、近代工业文明遗产和中国共产党精神谱系的维度对安源精神进行解读。研究认为，安源工 人运动，是中国工人运动的代表作，其所形成的安源精神，是中国共产党早期工人运动一面光辉的旗帜，是中 国近代工业文明的一份宝贵红色遗产，也是中国共产党精神谱系演进中的一个重要枢纽，堪称中国工人运动革 命精神的典范。它是整个中国革命和国家工业化共同的历史记忆和宝贵的精神财富。     

高校线上教学现状分析及对策研究

后疫情时代，线上教学已经成为高校教学手段的主要组成部分，将继续发挥重要作用，与此同时, 也暴露出诸多问题，有待改进。本研究从学生、授课教师、平台技术和管理制度四个方面对高校线上教学的现 状进行分析，并提出优化高校线上教学的建议。研究认为，线上教学虽然符合教学发展的要求，有利于传统学 习模式的变革，但也带来了缺少师生互动、教学管理缺少标准和规范等问题。研究建议，应釆取线上线下教学 相结合、提高教师线上教学能力、改进平台服务技术水平、改革教学管理制度、做好基础服务等措施，进一步 优化高校线上教学效果。     

A novel multiplex assay system based on 10 methylation markers for forensic identification of body fluids

Identifying the source of body fluids found at a crime scene is an essential forensic step. Some methods based on DNA methylation played significant role in body fluids identification. Since DNA methylation is related to multiple factors, such as race, age, and diseases, it is necessary to know the methylation profile of a given population. In this study, we tested 19 body fluid-specific methylation markers in a Chinese Han population. A novel multiplex assay system based on the selected markers with smaller variation in methylation and stronger tissue-specific methylation were developed for the identification of body fluids. The multiplex assay were tested in 265 body fluid samples. A random forest model was established to predict the tissue source based on the methylation data of the 10 markers. The multiplex assay was evaluated by testing the sensitivity, the mixtures, and old samples. For the result, the novel multiplex assay based on 10 selected methylation markers presented good methylation profiles in all tested samples. The random forest model worked extremely well in predicting the source of body fluids, with an accuracy of 100% and 97.5% in training data and test data, respectively. The multiplex assay could accurately predict the tissue source from 0.5 ng genomic DNA, six-months-old samples and distinguish the minor component from a mixture of two components. Our results indicated that the methylation multiplex assay and the random forest model could provide a convenient tool for forensic practitioners in body fluid identification.     

“美国模式”公共住房制度及其对我国的启示

公共住房建设及其管理政策作为美国政府公共事务管理方面的重要内容之一,已经走过了80多年的漫长发展历程.历经最初尝试、持续调整、发展完善三个重要阶段,美国的公共住房建设及其政策体系越来越成熟和完备.由此形成了所谓的“美国模式”.“美国模式”公共住房建设及其制度体系,主要得力于相关法案、财政政策、税收政策和管理政策等多方面的支持与保障,其在法律体系、制度建设、管理政策、市场运作、社会参与等方面的一些做法和成熟经验,对现阶段我国建立健全公共住房制度体系都有着重要的借鉴意义.     

Biased Budgeting in the Public Sector: Evidence from Italian Local Governments

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse, in terms of presence, determinants and purposes, the misrepresentation of expected revenues during budget formulation and the misrepresentation of actual revenues during budget execution. To this end, we use six-year panel data from Italian municipalities with populations above 15,000. Our results suggest that overestimations of current revenues are more frequent than underestimations, during both budget formulation and budget execution. In terms of determinants, our results highlight the impact on revenue misrepresentation of both political orientation and fiscal stress. Finally, in terms of purposes, we show that revenue underestimation during budget formulation and revenue overestimation during budget execution may contribute to the formation of surpluses. The former, in particular, may allow mayors to create a ‘war chest’ in non-election years, which can then be used to increase net borrowing on the eve of elections.     

Statistical Challenges in the Quantification of Gunshot Residue Evidence

The discharging of a gun results in the formation of extremely small particles known as gunshot residues (GSR). These may be deposited on the skin and clothing of the shooter, on other persons present, and on nearby items or surfaces. Several factors and their complex interactions affect the number of detectable GSR particles, which can deeply influence the conclusions drawn from likelihood ratios or posterior probabilities for prosecution hypotheses of interest. We present Bayesian network models for casework examples and demonstrate that probabilistic quantification of GSR evidence can be very sensitive to the assumptions concerning the model structure, prior probabilities, and the likelihood components. This finding has considerable implications for the use of statistical quantification of GSR evidence in the legal process.     

Urban Irregular Warfare and Violence Against Civilians: Evidence From a Colombian City

Defining terrorism and explaining how it occurs remains a contentious issue. This article attempts to generate new understandings on these topics by applying the work of Ehud Sprinzak's delegitimatization model to the Sea Shepherds. Evidence presented in the article suggests that the Sea Shepherd's present level of political violence passed through gradual phases. In this respect, it is possible to suggest that Sprinzak's model has applicability for maritime organizations, as well as terrestrial based groups. However, we also note that on the one hand, it may be possible to argue that in some respects the Sea Shepherds may constitute either a “blind spot” in the literature on terrorism and political violence, because its actions could in some circumstances be considered activism, militant direct action, piracy, vigilantism, terrorism, or eco-defense, which makes it very difficult to classify. On the other hand, that both the Sea Shepherds and the whalers may both engage in illegal activities, but are not prosecuted, may indicate that states and the international community may have neither the will nor the means to enforce laws against them. Therefore, they may be turning a blind eye to their actions. Throughout the article we maintain that the Sea Shepherds constitute an example of a gray area phenomenon. Despite the ambiguity surrounding their legal status and academic interpretations of their actions, the results of nearly three decades of the organization's activities, including its 2007 campaign to disrupt Japanese Antarctic Whaling, suggest that the Sea Shepherds may be best categorized as a vigilante group, because they claim they are seeking to enforce a legal status quo because of states' and the international community's inabilities or unwillingness to do so.