Identifying Unit-Dependency and Time-Specificity in Longitudinal Analysis: A Graphical Methodology

Longitudinal analysis in criminology and other social sciences has become an important research tool because it allows us to draw conclusions from observing how multiple units change over time. Unfortunately, its results are more vulnerable to potential influences of unusual observational units or periods of time. Current leverage diagnostics are designed for cross-sectional analysis and are fallible when applied to longitudinal models. This article introduces a graphical diagnostic methodology to systematically examine the sensitivity of longitudinal results to extreme observational units and periods of time—unit-dependency and time-specificity. Further the article illustrates its use with an example testing policy effects on black and white female victimization of intimate partner homicide. Results are displayed in an easily understood graph that provides a snapshot of the results' time-specific patterns and robustness to unit-dependency. Currently, comparable tests for panel analysis are tedious and cumbersome. With this new illuminating methodology, researchers and policy-makers can easily decide whether a time-specific or unit-dependent pattern is consequential.     

Crime patterns and their relation to subjective social stress and support indicators: The role of gender

This study investigated the relationship between the subjective perception of stress and support in the population (as independent variables) and the prevalence of homicide, robbery, and property offenses in society, while controlling for the effect of gender, i.e., how these crimes are related to the differential perception of stress and support among males and females. The theoretical framework is provided by a stress-support model which postulates that crime in society will be positively related to stress factors and negatively related to support systems. Eight stress indicators and four support (solidarity) indicators were included. The data regarding these indicators were derived from continuing surveys of representative samples of the urban population in Israel during the years 1967–1979. The theoretical model was supported by the findings, especially those relating to property offenses. The effects of the female indicators were strongest (and greater than those of males) with regard to property offenses. The regression coefficients of the female indicators were also consistently larger than those of males, indicating that women's perceptions of stress are better predictors of crime rates than those of males. The results are compared to those of previous studies and suggestions are made for future studies in this new line of criminological research.     

中国的县政改革实践：困境与出路

当前,一些地方结合本地实际进行县政改革的实践探索,其中以行政分权为特征的＂省管县＂改革、人大代表专职化改革和县委权力公开透明运行试点改革最为引人注目。这三种不同类型的县政改革探索在实践过程中遇到了各种形式的困难与阻碍。在此情况下,更需要明确指出,县政改革的根本方向和出路应该是县政自治。为此,需要进行真正意义的政治分权和司法分权,通过确立民众对执政者的制约,建立真正意义的责任政府;通过强化司法制衡来制约地方的政治行为,维护公共利益的制度底线。     

以董必武“党政分开”思想考量“县委书记高配”问题

董必武关于依法治国必须坚持党的领导、党与政权机关相对独立、党对政权机关进行正确领导等＂党政分开＂的经典宏观理论为我们提供了对当前＂县委书记高配＂这一相对微观问题进行分析、评价与完善的路径。由于＂县委书记高配＂这一模式在法律依据、逻辑进路、预期结果三个方面都存在大量违反党政分开原则的因素,因此,在董必武相关思想的指导下,通过党内监督和党外民主监督并用的方式,将会对＂县委书记高配＂困境发挥重要的纠偏作用。     

行政法视角下我国县级政府决策模式改革研究

我国县级政府决策模式具有管制色彩重、封闭性强、民主参与程度弱、决策权力缺乏有效监督等特点,围绕县级政府决策模式改革涉及的决策主体、权限、程序、法律责任等行政法问题,未来改革方向包括强化决策与执行的适度分离、增强参与性决策与技术理性决策的比重等。法治视野下的政府权力结构和运行机制研究课题组设计了县级政府决策模式改革的几种方案,并对中央与地方公务员进行认同度调查。调查结果反映出不同府级与地区公务员对改革方案存在较大意见分歧。在进行政府决策模式改革过程中,应当以法治方式推动改革,重点围绕决策权力配置、决策程序、决策的法律责任进行,并充分考虑县级政府的特殊性、不同地区之间的差异性、地方真实信息与地方合理利益等因素。     

制造意外事件型杀人案件的侦查分析

制造意外事件型杀人案件就是行为人通过故意制造意外事件以杀害被害人的刑事案件的总称。该类案件具有极高的刑事案件假象特性，并有不同于其他相似杀人案件的特点，对该类案件的侦破难度相当大。因此,如何制定一套针对该类案件的策略与措施是急需解决的难题。     

Associations between national gambling policies and disordered gambling prevalence rates within Europe

Policymakers and other interested stakeholders currently are seeking information about the comparative effectiveness of different regulatory approaches to minimising gambling-related harm. This study responds to this research gap by exploring associations between gambling policies and disordered gambling prevalence rates. We gathered information about gambling policies for thirty European jurisdictions and past-year prevalence rates for disordered gambling for twelve of these jurisdictions. We present policy trends and prevalence rates and then describe the level of association between policy and prevalence. We observe one statistically significant association between policy and prevalence: rates of sub-clinical (i.e., Level 2) disordered gambling were higher within environments that mandated less strict regulation of advertising for online gambling. Finally, we discuss the implications of our research in the context of the current process regarding the pan-European regulation of gambling. Our findings do not offer evidence for certain assumptions made in the past by the European judiciary.     

超越边缘:一个东南侨乡回族社区文化建设的人类学考察

从一家到一族、从弱小到壮大、从经商务农到读书入仕,陈埭丁氏回族历经数百年调适和变迁,终于从外来小姓变为本地望族。借助侨乡优势,开展社区文化建设推动社区经济发展,依靠特色文化提升自身形象,超越边缘,陈埭丁氏回族成功地开辟了一条属于自己的文化之旅。     

England's New Scheme for Funding Higher Education through Student Fees: ‘Fair and Progressive’?

From September 2012 most home undergraduates at English universities are being charged fees of £9,000 per annum. These are funded by a government loan, which attracts interest from the moment they start their course; after three years their accumulated debt exceeds £30,000. They can also borrow to cover their living costs, on the same terms, so that those studying in London can graduate with a debt of more than £50,000—although those from low‐income families can obtain grants and universities are encouraged to provide bursaries and other support to students from underrepresented groups. Graduates start repaying their debts once their annual income exceeds £21,000—at a rate of 9% of the difference between their income and that figure: until the debt is fully repaid it continues to attract interest, by as much as three percentage points above the current inflation rate. Using data from a calculator on a government website, this paper shows that the highest‐paid graduates pay back less than those on middle incomes: the ‘squeezed middle’ pays back more not only than those on low incomes but also the better‐paid and those whose incomes increase more rapidly. This has differential effects according to occupation—and sex; and middle‐income groups also contribute more to the costs of widening participation programmes, which all universities charging more than £6,000 per annum are required to fund.     

疑似失踪人员案件现场勘查探析

血迹是命案现场上常见的痕迹之一。在整个破案过程中，分析案发现场的血迹，研究其规律特点，揭示同案件之间的内在联系，对于我们确定案件性质，认定杀人凶器，分析作案过程，揭露现场伪装，寻找杀人现场，刻画犯罪嫌疑人，肯定和否定嫌疑对象等都起着十分重要的作用。本研究以一起失踪人员疑似被害的案件为例，通过案件的回顾与详细分析研判，以期为疑似失踪人员案件的现场勘查与侦破提供借鉴意义。