2005年台湾"三合一"选举之评析

2005年底,台湾“三合一”选举结果揭晓,国民党在各项选举中都取得优势性胜利,民进党在县市长选举中遭受重大挫败,县市“议员”和乡镇市长当选数有小幅增长。亲民党、台湾团结联盟和新党,从当选席次、得票率等方面看,都已被边缘化。“高雄捷运”弊案所构成的特殊背景,成为此次选举的最大特征,并且直接影响选举的最终结果。此次“三合一”选举,必对台湾的政党结构体系以及台湾政坛产生重大影响,是当前台湾政局发展及其两岸关系未来走向的参考指标。     

犯罪经济学视野中的命案侦破

命案的边际社会成本明显高于其他案件,其数量应控制在比其他案件更低的水平。降低命案发案率有两条途径:一是加大惩罚力度,二是加大作案者被逮捕与定罪的概率。但命案自身的特性决定了后者的效果优于前者。犯罪经济学分析表明,在一定的约束边界内“,命案必破”是必然和正确的选择。     

西部区域生态移民的科学性和运作模式——对甘肃省民勤县以水定人的调查和分析

本文以对甘肃省民勤县的深入调查为基础,按照以水定人的思路,在认真分析目前该县的水生态环境对人口发展、经济增长和社会进步的严重影响的基础上,提出了具体的生态移民的规划思路、移民设计和运作模式等。     

关于加快县域经济发展的思考

加快县域经济发展 ,事关国民经济的发展大局。必须既立足当前 ,又着眼长远 ;抓点带面 ,以点促面 ;虚实结合 ,正确处理内与外的关系 ;坚持“两手抓”的原则 ,实现软硬两个环境相辅相成 ,协调发展 ,从而不断推动我国县域经济持续、快速、健康发展。     

Examining Space–Time Interaction in City-Level Homicide Data: Crack Markets and the Diffusion of Guns Among Youth

This paper examines the linkage between crack market activity and gunhomicide suggested by Blumstein (1995), who argues that the arrival ofcrack stimulated an increased availability of guns among juveniles. Thisgreater availability of guns, the argument continues, is responsible for thesharp upswing in juvenile homicide experienced in the United States in themid-1980s. Using city-level data on crack arrests and gun-related juvenilehomicide, we fit a change-point version of the Bass (1969) model ofinnovation diffusion. We find that, in most large American cities, thediffusion process for crack cocaine experienced an onset of dramatic growththat was followed by a similar, slightly slower growth in gun homicidescommitted by juveniles. We further use cluster analysis to find that thespatial patterning of the two processes is similar, starting on the East andWest Coasts and working their way toward other regions of the nation. Gunuse in homicide among slightly older offenders (ages 18–24) alsoexperienced a change at roughly the same time as the juveniles, but the rateof diffusion was considerably milder than for the younger group; offendersages 25 or older generally show no growth in gun-related homicide whatsoever. In addition, there is no detectable surge in juvenile nongun homicide activity. Based on these findings, we conclude that the crack cocaine markets–gun availability linkage is highly plausible, and we suggest directions for future research in clarifying the dynamics of the late-1980s surge in juvenile homicide.     

关于提升民族地区县级政府能力的思考

提升民族地区县级政府的能力,就是要使民族地区县级政府变成能做事、会做事、做得好事的政府。为此,应从以下几方面入手：提高民族地区政府工作人员的素质,增强民族地区县级政府工作人员的责任意识和廉洁意识,促进民族地区县域经济的发展,加强民族地区县级政府与人民群众的联系。     

统筹城乡发展 推进农业产业化进程——以松桃县太平营乡为例

发展生产是建设社会主义新农村的首要任务。坚持用统筹城乡发展的方略加快推进农业产业化,是建设现代农业、发展农村经济、增加农民收入的必经之路。松桃县太平乡农业产业化进程并非仅仅依靠行政力量来推动,它运用了市场经济的发展规律,突出农民的主体地位,充分发挥政策的牵引作用,从而将市场的基础性作用与政府的调控作用有机地结合起来,这也是松桃县太平营乡农业产业化发展得以迅速取得成效的基本经验。松桃县太平营乡经验显现了农业发展的新思路:以发展高效生态农业为方向,加快现代农业园区建设和农业龙头企业的扶持,积极培育区域特色农业,推进农业产业化、绿色化和多功能化发展。     

当代民族分离主义兴起的原因探析

冷战结束以后，多民族国家共同体内部所发生的一系列的民族矛盾、民族冲突直接导致了民族分离主义的产生。当代民族分离主义强烈要求将本民族从现有的多民族国家共同体中分裂出来，以实现“民族自决”、“一国一族”的本民族的国家政治体系，其分离行径给国家和民族安全带来极大危害。     

试析统筹城乡发展与乡镇政府改革

乡镇政府作为直接面对农民的基层行政机构，在推动统筹城乡发展中具有重要作用。当前乡镇政府存在着一系列制约其作用发挥的问题,为此,要从乡镇政府的设置、乡镇职能的转变、乡镇机构的确定、乡镇工作人员的优化、乡镇财政管理的创新等方面进行改革，以提高乡镇政府的行政能力和服务水平。     

SCOPE AND CONCEPTUAL ISSUES IN TESTING THE RACE–CRIME INVARIANCE THESIS: BLACK,WHITE, AND HISPANIC COMPARISONS*

Our goal in this article is to contribute conceptually and empirically to assessments of the racial invariance hypothesis, which posits that structural disadvantage predicts violent crime in the same way for all racial and ethnic groups. Conceptually, we elucidate the scope of the racial invariance hypothesis and clarify the criteria used for evaluating it. Empirically, we use 1999–2001 averaged arrest data from California and New York to extend analyses of the invariance hypothesis within the context of the scope and definitional issues raised in our conceptual framing—most notably by including Hispanic comparisons with Blacks and Whites, by examining the invariance assumption for homicide as well as the violent crime index, by using discrete as well as composite disadvantage measures, and by using census place localities as the study unit. The mixed findings we report from our comparisons (across Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics; offense types; and type of disadvantage) suggest caution and uncertainty about the notion that structural sources of violence affect racial/ethnic groups in uniform ways. We conclude that the hypothesis should be regarded as provisional, and its scope remains to be established as to whether it applies only under narrow conditions or is a principle of general applicability.