转型社会的政治决策：期权博弈与公平均衡解释

在转型社会中,政治决策是拥有主要政治权力的行政主体,与反映主要群体利益的社会主体之间的博弈均衡。现实的各种政治后果可以从考虑期权价值的延迟均衡和抢先均衡来说明,也可以表现为考虑心理动机的“公平均衡”。在如同海峡两岸博弈这样复杂的均衡组合中,作者推论存在可以称为“虚妄公平”的均衡概念。转型社会的各个主体因此必须寻求“真实公平”策略选择,才能实现真正公平的政治决策目标。     

Israel's Counter-Terrorism Policy: How Effective?

The percentage of Israelis killed by terrorism is higher than in any other democracy. The article analyzes the threats Israel has faced, the impact terrorism has had on Israel, and the counter-terrorism policies Israel has adopted. Terrorism has had a decisive effect on Israeli elections and national security decisions, but not the economy. Israeli counter-terrorism has often been conducted without a coherent overall policy, has failed to reflect and conflicted with broader objectives, and has greatly undermined Israel's international standing. Conversely, it has enabled Israel to live in relative security and thrive, and provided its leaders with the latitude to pursue various policies, including peace, should they wish to do so.     

决策者到底如何归因?——一项基于美国外交档案的研究

面对充满不确定性的世界。个体通常通过一种被称为归因的心理机制从不完全的信息中解释他人做出某种行为的原因。类似但更为特殊的心理机制也会发生在当一个国家的决策者需要理解另一个国家的行为以采取某种应对之策的时候。当外交决策者们在试图解释他国的行为时,他们会将哪些变量纳入他们的考虑范畴?他们对他国行为进行归因的方式是否会因情境的不同而有所变化?如果确实有所变化,那么他们在归因时将会存在哪些倾向和偏见?外交决策者通常从能力、决心、利益、意图和该国所处的战略环境五个维度来认知另一个国家行为的原因。而恐惧和族群中心主义均会作用于这五个维度,并且在不同的情境下,两者在各维度的作用方式有所差异。为了验证唐世平提出的行为归因理论,作者采用了一种特殊的内容分析技术——逐字解释文本分析——对1945-1947年间的美国外交档案进行了分析和编码,试图利用二战结束至冷战开始这段时间内美国的主要决策者对苏联行为所进行的数以百计的归因,并对上述归因理论进行经验上的探索。验证结果表明,描述性的证据分析部分支持了这一新的归因理论,但也挑战了这一理论中关于能力、决心和环境维度的部分推断。     

论刑事回避制度——以比较法为视角

刑事回避是一种重要的刑事诉讼制度，它对刑事案件的公正、公平审判，犯罪嫌疑人、被告人以及其他诉讼参与人合法权益的保护都具有十分重要的意义。文章以国外刑事诉讼立法与司法实践为基础，以比较法为视角，全面阐述了刑事回避的启动与决定；刑事回避的适用对象与适用原由；刑事回避的法律后果与救济等内容。     

“缝被”的文化隐喻与美国女性主义文学传统的建构

20世纪90年代以来，基于美国黑人妇女缝制“拼贴被”的文化传统，女性主义者提出把女性主义内部的种族、阶级、国别和性取向的差异缝合为文化“拼贴被”的隐喻构想。本文从性别和女性主义文学批评角度，探讨“拼贴被”的隐喻构想与美国女性主义文学批评的互动与影响，以求打开女性主义批评文本的外延，在性别研究、妇女文学史、文化研究等学科之间寻找一条“共同的丝线”。     

以经济建设为中心的论争

目前,学界对以经济建设为中心一直存在种种异议,其中包括多中心论、中心转移论以及中心负面论等等。以经济建设为中心是十一届三中全会以来明确而又持之以恒的战略思想。这些异议虽然反映了理论和实践上的一些问题,但在社会主义初级阶段还要继续坚持以经济建设为中心。对于以经济建设为中心,当前要纠正在实践上的一些偏颇,赋予其理论上新的时代内涵,走科学发展之路。     

政府决策失误的责任追究探讨

政府决策是政府行使国家管理职能的有效工具和手段,它在国家政治、经济、文化、外交领域发挥着巨大的作用。然而“政府决策失误”一旦酿成,轻则会给国家和人民造成重大财产损失,重则会造成人员伤亡。有权力即有责任,问责“政府决策失误”是建立责任政府和构建和谐社会的必然要求。     

公共问题界定：政策研究的新视角

传统的政策规划与政策分析研究,很少将注意力放在公共问题的本质及界定上。从上世纪八十年代起,一些美国公共政策研究学者开始将目光转向关注公共问题的界定方式与政策分析各个环节的关系。这种通过公共问题界定来分析政策过程的视角,对理解议程变化、政策变迁、政策评估等方面都具有重要意义。     

Were Bosnian policy research organisations more effective in 2006 than in 2003? Did technical assistance play a role?

In 2003 the policy development process in Bosnia and Herzegovina was characterised by international community (IC) dominance. The IC provided the vast majority of the analysis of problems facing the country and drafted many of the laws. This article documents developments from fall 2003 to fall 2006 in the use of evidence and analysis in the policy development process and the role of local policy research organisations (PROs—often called think tanks) in it. The likely relation between these changes and the activities of a PRO mentoring project that operated over the same period is also assessed. Evidence comes as a series of interviews in both years with government officials and members of parliament, on the one hand, and leaders of PROs and advocacy NGOs on the other. The broad picture that emerges from the above review is of a substantial positive development in the policy development process in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the period. Factual evidence and analysis are playing a much greater role, and PROs have been a major provider of this information. The evidence indicates that PROs have been successful in convincing the policy community that they are purveyors of objective, disinterested advice and analysis. The improvements occurred in a conducive environment that steadily placed greater responsibility for policy formation on Bosnian officials. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Expert Testimony Pertaining to Battered Woman Syndrome: Its Impact on Jurors' Decisions

Participants (N = 200) were presented with a criminal homicide trial involving a battered woman who had killed her abuser. Within the trial, both the response history (passive, active) and presence of expert testimony pertaining to battered woman syndrome (present, absent) were systematically varied. As well, half of the participants in each of these conditions were provided with a nullification instruction informing them that they were free to disregard the law and acquit should a strict application of the law result in an unjust verdict. Results indicated that, compared to the passive response condition, the mock jurors were no less receptive to the expert testimony in the active response condition. The impact of the testimony on participants' verdicts, however, was moderated by the nullification instruction. That is, although the presence of the testimony did result in greater verdict leniency, this only occurred when the mock jurors had been released from a strict application of the law. The implications of these findings are discussed.