Distinguishing between the effects of swing ratio and bias on outcomes in the US Electoral College, 1900–1992

We review a number of different statistical techniques for creating seats-votes curves and apply the most reliable of these to estimate seats-votes relationships in the US electoral college 1900–1992. We consider the now rejected claim, once firmly established as part of the common journalistic and even academic wisdom, that the US Electoral College has recently been strongly biased in favor of Republicans, and show that this claim was based largely on a confusion between bias (asymmetry in the electoral college gains earned by the votes received by different parties or candidates) and swing ratio (responsiveness of change in electoral college seat share to change in popular vote). Although there has been substantial bias during this century in the way the electoral college translates Democratic and Republican votes into electoral college seats, and for the earlier party of this century (from 1900 to 1940) that bias has been in favor of Republicans, to explain why many recent electoral college majorities have been so lopsided we must look not at bias but at swing ratio.We show that the swing ratio in the electoral college has generally been increasing since 1900, rising from an average value (1900–1924) around three to an average value (1976–1992) ranging from about five to about eight, depending upon which of the various statistical estimation techniques we use. Thus, for every one point vote share gain above 50 per cent, a winning presidential candidate in a two-candidate competition can now expect to pick up somewhere between a 5 percentage point and an 8 percentage point increase in electoral college seats—giving the illusion of mandate even for relatively close contests and frequently creating apparent landslides. We show that this historical rise in swing ratio in presidential elections is due almost entirely to changes in the responsiveness of outcomes in the US South as the influence of the Civil War slowly (very slowly) erodes. Drawing on the analysis of the determinants of bias and of swing ratio in the House of Representatives in Brady and Grofman (1991b), we show that the increases in electoral college swing can be accounted for by the nationalization of presidential competition as signaled by the decrease over time in the standard deviation of Democratic share of the two-party vote across states, and that changes in bias can be linked to changes in the magnitude of differences between the mean and the median of that distribution.     

台湾2012年选举与两党体系的强化

2012年台湾地区最高领导人和立法机构选举说明,单名选区相对多数当选制有利于两党体系的强化。这次选举延续了"蓝大于绿"的政治版图,体现了单名选区制对现任"立委"和既有政治生态的照顾,而"总统"和"立法院"合并选举,则加强了两党对决的氛围。此外,"北蓝南绿"、"蓝大于绿"的县市执政格局,也影响到两位"总统"候选人的具体得票多寡和选举的最终结果,强化了台湾的两党体系。     

职代会的定位与功能重塑

职代会制度是我国颇具特色的一项职工参与制度。随着市场经济体制的建立以及企业治理制度的变革，职代会的地位和作用发生了变化，需要重新审视职代会的正当性。目前，有关职工参与的各种理论从不同角度论证了职代会的正当性，职代会对完善公司治理、加强公司监督、维护公司利益也具有积极作用。我国应通过完善职代会设立规则、职权设置，使传统的职代会与市场经济体制下的现代公司治理机制相契合，让职代会成为职工与企业协商沟通的主要平台，在新的体制环境下发挥协商和监督等功能。     

民进党执政时期台湾社会治安评析

政党轮替与民进党上台后，台湾社会治安恶化趋势并未得到有效遏止，相反，各项指标显示岛内社会稳定形势仍不容乐观。2000年后台湾治安持续紊乱与其社会转型密切相关，陈水扁当局“政治挂帅”也难辞其咎。虽然岛内公民社会的建构、民众理性的觉醒及当局管理的增强，客观上有利于改善总体治安形势，但“统独”纠纷及台澎最终政治定位将长期困扰其社会稳定。     

WHY A LAWYER?—THE IMPORTANCE OF CLIENT‐DIRECTED LEGAL REPRESENTATION FOR YOUTH

This article begins with a discussion about the importance of ensuring that all children have lawyers in abuse and neglect cases. Lawyers provide a vital role in giving youth a voice in proceedings that sound profoundly affect their lives. The article then discusses why the client‐directed lawyer's role is consistent with federal law and legal ethics. Finally, the article discusses the growing support for client‐directed representation and what the American Bar Association has done to support this type of child representation.     

EMPOWERMENT,INNOVATION, AND SERVICE: LAW SCHOOL PROGRAMS PROVIDE ACCESS TO JUSTICE AND INSTILL A COMMITMENT TO SERVE

Law schools around the country seek to fill the legal needs of their communities in ways that are both innovative and mutually beneficial to clients and students. This article describes five pro bono and clinical programs, at the University of Richmond School of Law, The Earle Mack School of Law at Drexel University, Catholic University Columbus School of Law, the Thomas Jefferson School of Law, and Vermont Law School, where law students, under the supervision of law professors or community professionals, provide assistance or legal representation to underserved and often marginalized populations needing help with family law problems, including parents accused of abuse and neglect, youth aging out of foster care, homeless families, survivors of domestic violence, homeless veterans with addiction problems, and female prisoners. To develop their programs, the five law schools from the outset collaborated with partners in the community, and they continue to do so as their programs expand and evolve. In addition to helping and empowering clients, these law schools are providing experiential learning opportunities that are transformative for their students. The authors hope that these programs will be instructive for law schools, other academic institutions, the legal community, and community organizations in developing creative collaborations to ensure better access to justice.     

Support for electoral system reform among voters and politicians: Studying information effects through survey experiments

Does information about the consequences of proposals to change the Norwegian parliamentary electoral system influence voters' and politicians' attitudes towards the system? Is the willingness to accept change greater among voters/politicians who “lose” under the present electoral system? These questions are illuminated using empirical data from two identical survey experiments, with responses from both voters and politicians about 1) increased proportionality between parties (more seats for smaller parties) and 2) increased geographical proportionality (stronger representation for the more populous counties). The results show that being informed about the consequences of the proposals has a major effect on voters' and politicians' attitudes. This applies especially to the question of increased proportionality between parties, where feedback was particularly negative from respondents who were told that the proposal might weaken the larger parties’ representation and make it more difficult to establish viable governments. The responses to the question about increased proportionality between parties were also influenced by partisanship; politicians who belonged to or voters who voted for one of the smaller parties favour increased proportionality. We also find that there is limited support for the proposal to distribute parliamentary seats according to the number of inhabitants in the counties, and this support is further reduced when the respondents are informed that the measure will increase representation from the more populous parts of the country.     

The electoral roots of unequal representation. A spatial modelling approach to party systems and voting in Western Europe

For a number of Western democracies, it has been observed that the preferences of poor and rich citizens are unequally represented in political institutions and outcomes. Yet, the causes of this phenomenon are still under debate. We focus on the role of elections in this process, by disentangling biases towards different income groups that stem from the party system and from voters’ behaviour. Our aim is to uncover whether elections as selection mechanisms contribute to unequal representation by analysing factors of the supply and demand sides of the electoral process. On the supply side, we focus on the congruence of parties’ policy offers and voters’ preference distributions. This shapes citizens’ possibilities to express their policy preferences. On the demand side, we are interested in the extent to which citizens from different income groups base their vote decisions on their policy preferences. The empirical analysis relies on the European Social Survey and the Chapel Hill Expert Survey and covers 13 Western European countries. Our results indicate, first, that the economic and cultural preferences of poor and rich citizens differ significantly, and second, that party systems in the countries under investigation represent the lowest income groups the worst, and the middle income groups the best. This makes it difficult for citizens at both the lower and the higher end of the income distribution to voice their preferences in elections. Additionally, we show that low income citizens tend to take policy less into consideration when making an electoral choice than richer citizens. Thus, while the rich make up for their representation bias by taking policy more into account in their voting behaviour, the electoral stage poses another obstacle for the poor to overcome the representation bias. In summary it can be said that already on the supply side there is an unbalanced disadvantage in terms of representation for the very poor and the very rich, but the pattern leads to an even more asymmetrical misrepresentation of the poor due to the election act.     

State Duma of the Russian Federation of the 7th Convocation: Between “Sleeping Potential” and Party Discipline

In the run-up to the elections of 18 September 2016, suggestions were made that a change in the rules for electing the State Duma (a return to a mixed majority-proportional system) would affect the qualitative composition of the deputy corps.^11. See for example Kynev, Lyubarev, Maximov 2015; Mintusov (ed.) 2016; Mixed districts 2016. Today, a year since the Duma campaign, we already have sufficient information to move from hypothetical arguments to a specific study not only of the composition, but also the style of work of the new parliament.

Existing data allow us to say that two different tendencies exist in the Duma. One of them is connected with the change in the composition of the deputy corps, caused by the addition of a majority component, which has influenced the principles of selecting candidates, and by a number of other causes—from the assumption of a low turn-out to the emergence of new bans and restrictions in legislation. Another involves the change in style of work of the lower chamber of the Federal Assembly. Besides efforts directly toward reducing scandalous behavior and overcoming the reputation of a “maniacal printer,” this concerns attempts by the leadership of the Duma in general and individual parliamentary groups to regulate and centralize the lawmaking process as much as possible. If the first tendency involves increasing political independence of deputies (as a consequence of the increase of the importance of their personal qualities at elections), the second means an even greater reduction of their influence on decisions taken by the Duma. This article provides a detailed analysis of these tendencies.