当下中国的举国动员何以可能?

本文对中国成功抗击非典的举国动员机制进行探讨,从单位组织和社区动员、权力技术运作、媒体对社会意识的建构、理性选择机制等四个方面论述了举国动员何以可能,以期对理解当下中国的举国动员提供帮助,为我们抗击眼下席卷全球的甲流有所启示。     

国际“碳政治”博弈与中国的对策

作为一种新型国际政治,"碳政治"一词伴随全球变暖问题而出现,为国际政治舞台增添了新的博弈因素。需要指出的是,我们欢迎"碳政治"这一新型国际政治,但反对把国际气候问题政治化。把国际气候问题政治化、寻求实现其他目的,无助于切实解决气候变化问题给人类社会带来的挑战。     

自我救赎与伦理情怀——《布朗德》中的道德困境与伦理选择

作为一部伦理悲剧,《布朗德》围绕着“母亲抱憾西归”、“幼儿患病夭折”、“妻子绝望自杀”和“悬崖葬身雪山”的剧情而展开,其悲剧的根源在于他淡薄的伦理意识、偏执的自我中心,以及空泛的道德说教、伪善的道德行为,不切实际地追求“全有或全无”的宗教事业,逐步失去了对自己的控制从而多次做出错误的伦理选择,因而走向毁灭。文章以文学伦理学批评为研究视角,关注作为牧师的布朗德同时为“人子”、为“人父”、为“人夫”的多重伦理身份及其感情纠葛,探讨布朗德所遭遇的道德困境及其颇有争议的伦理选择。作家一方面以外部聚焦的叙述方式关注布朗德的道德行为及其布朗德周边人们对布朗德的道德评价,另一方面以内视聚焦关注着布朗德自我赎罪的心路历程。剧本围绕着布朗德的家庭、婚姻、亲情和事业等伦理关系而展开,由此讨论所引发的关于责任、义务、使命、孝顺、仁爱、仁慈、信仰、死亡、恐惧、绝望、自责、自杀、负罪、救赎等伦理命题,透视了戏剧人物的生命历程中对道德力量的渴望以及以死赎罪的自我诉求,体现了作者易卜生对于人类理想道德法则的追求与向往。     

Perceived Sanction Threats and Projective Risk Sensitivity: Auto Theft,Carjacking, and the Channeling Effect

Although sanction threats promote fear, among committed offenders, that fear can become a resource with which to sculpt emerging crime preferences. In such cases, criminality is not deterred but channeled. We explore the channeling process here as it relates to auto theft and carjacking. Our qualitative findings reveal that auto thieves are reluctant to embrace the violence of carjacking due to concerns over sanction threat severity they attributed to carjacking—both formal (higher sentences) and informal (victim resistance and retaliation). Meanwhile, the carjackers are reticent to enact auto theft because of the more uncertain and putatively greater risk of being surprised by victims, a fear that appears to overcome the enhanced long-term formal penalty of taking a vehicle by force. We examine the implications of offenders’ decision-making for the analytic intersection of rational choice and deterrence, offering the notion of projective risk sensitivity to encapsulate the process.     

Make and Buy—An Alternative to Make or Buy? An Investigation of Four Theoretical Explanations in Danish Municipalities

The question of whether public organizations should provide services themselves or buy them from external suppliers has become increasingly relevant due to public-sector modernization. The literature has focused on it as a question of either make or buy. Contrarily, we focus on the reasons for public organizations to simultaneously produce and contract out similar services. The article investigates different theoretical explanations for concurrent make and buy. A survey of Danish municipalities shows that make and buy seems to be a steady choice. However, the results show little support for the theoretical explanations indicating the need for more public-oriented explanations.     

文化传承创新视域下的高校思想政治教育

高校开展思想政治教育工作的重要目的是为了实现文化的传承创新,两者之间是辩证统一的关系。从高等教育的基本职能、大学生思想现状等来看,高校在开展思想政治教育工作时,需要通过以下三个方面加强文化传承创新：一是要增强思想政治教育的人文内涵和底蕴,不断加强校园文化建设;二是要坚持思想政治教育课程改革创新,以文化教育为载体,做到政治性与文化性兼具;三是要坚持以人为本,培养大学生文化自觉和自信,以实现思想政治教育、自我教育双赢。     

Beyond Rational Choice: the Hot/Cool Perspective of Criminal Decision Making

This paper proposes a general framework of criminal decision making that assumes both ‘cool’ cognition and ‘hot’ affect, i.e. feelings, to influence criminal choice. Drawing from judgment and decision making research and social psychology, the hot/cool perspective extends rational choice and deterrence theories by explaining how affect is likely to influence criminal decisions alongside cognitive considerations, such as the perceived costs and benefits of crime. It is shown how the hot/cool perspective offers a more realistic account of criminal decision making processes than existing decision models and approaches and also allows for the explanation of criminal behaviors that are difficult to explain in terms of rational choice.     

论声纹鉴定意见的表述形式

本文针对目前国内外讨论比较热烈的声纹鉴定意见表述问题进行了评述.首先介绍了实践中正在使用的听觉分析法、声谱比对分析法、声学分析法、听觉-声学分析法和说话人自动识别五种鉴定方法,指出了各种方法的优缺点;然后对现存的二元判决、可能性等级、似然比和英国立场声明四种鉴定意见表述形式进行了介绍和评析,通过分析发现,上述四种意见表述形式都存在一定的问题,实践中选择何种形式表述鉴定意见要综合考虑其科学性、逻辑性、现实性和可行性等多种价值选项;最后认为解决该问题的根本方法是各相关领域的专家应加强在鉴定方法上的合作性的基础研究.     

服务型政府视域中的价值取向和路径选择

服务型政府的建设是深化行政管理体制改革的重中之重。"以人为本"是服务型政府的价值追求,"以人为本"、以公民权利为本位以及公众利益最大化是服务型政府的首要目标。如何才能建设好服务型政府是摆在我国行政体制改革面前的重大课题和任务。在对服务型政府科学内涵分析的基础上,探讨了服务型政府价值取向及路径选择问题,以期在理论和实践中为新疆更好地推动服务型政府的建设提供政策建议。     

TARGET CHOICE DURING EXTREME EVENTS: A DISCRETE SPATIAL CHOICE MODEL OF THE 2011 LONDON RIOTS

Riots are extreme events, and much of the early research on rioting suggested that the decision making of rioters was far from rational and could only be understood from the perspective of a collective mind. In the current study, we derive and test a set of expectations regarding rioter spatial decision making developed from theories originally intended to explain patterns of urban crime when law and order prevail—crime pattern and social disorganization theory—and consider theories of collective behavior and contagion. To do this, we use data for all riot‐related incidents that occurred in London in August 2011 that were detected by the police. Unlike most studies of victimization, we use a random utility model to examine simultaneously how the features of the destinations selected by rioters, the origins of their journeys, and the characteristics of the offenders influence offender spatial decision making. The results demonstrate that rioter target choices were far from random and provide support for all three types of theory, but for crime pattern theory in particular. For example, rioters were more likely to engage in the disorder close to their home location and to select areas that contained routine activity nodes and transport hubs, and they were less likely to cross the Thames River. In terms of contagion, rioters were found to be more likely to target areas that had experienced rioting in the previous 24 hours. From a policy perspective, the findings provide insight into the types of areas that may be most vulnerable during riots and why this is the case, and when particular areas are likely to be at an elevated risk of this type of disorder.