台湾地区经济动态效率探析

运用西方宏观经济理论中关于经济动态效率模型理论,对近十年来台湾地区经济动态效率的变化情况进行了实证考察,研究发现:近十年来台湾地区经济动态有效状态明显且呈现逐渐增强趋势。由于经典的宏观经济增长理论并不能很好解释台湾地区经济动态效率的变化情况,深入分析发现,近十年来台湾地区资本流动是其经济动态效率改善的关键性因素。中国大陆作为台湾对外投资的最主要地区,是台湾地区经济发展的重要依托,在改善台湾地区经济动态效率方面发挥着重要作用。     

科学建设 强化应用 强力打造“技防江苏”特色品牌

为贯彻落实省委关于平安和谐进入新境界的新的目标定位，打造“技防江苏”品牌，提升公安机关打击犯罪、驾驭治安的能力，按照省厅党委的统一部署，2004-2005年全省开展了年为期两年的城市报警与监控系统建设。2006年又制定出台了《2006-2008年全省社会治安监控系统建设总体规划》，开展了为期三年的新一轮建设。[第一段]     

论治安防控中的时空整合

治安防控是中国公安机关为适应新形势下动态治安管理需要所采取的新举措。在治安防 控中将时空整合,有利于提高快速反应的实战能力,有利于提高发现和预防犯罪的能力,有利于发现 和打击现行犯罪和预谋犯罪。     

Quantitative Analysis of the Morphological Changes of the Pubic Symphyseal Face and the Auricular Surface and Implications for Age at Death Estimation

Age estimation methods are often based on the age‐related morphological changes of the auricular surface and the pubic bone. In this study, a mathematical approach to quantify these changes has been tested analyzing the curvature variation on 3D models from CT and laser scans. The sample consisted of the 24 Suchey–Brooks (SB) pubic bone casts, 19 auricular surfaces from the Buckberry and Chamberlain (BC) “recording kit” and 98 pelvic bones from the Terry Collection (Smithsonian Institution). Strong and moderate correlations between phases and curvature were found in SB casts (ρ 0.60–0.93) and BC “recording kit” (ρ 0.47–0.75), moderate and weak correlations in the Terry Collection bones (pubic bones: ρ 0.29–0.51, auricular surfaces: ρ 0.33–0.50) but associated with large individual variability and overlap of curvature values between adjacent decades. The new procedure, requiring no expert judgment from the operator, achieved similar correlations that can be found in the classic methods.     

Legislative Committees as Uncertainty Reduction Devices in Multiparty Parliamentary Democracies

Most research on committees in multiparty legislatures in parliamentary democracies focuses on their role in solving intra-cabinet delegation problems. Using a straightforward spatial model, this article discusses how committees can also solve uncertainty problems that arise in settings characterised by unstable coalitions, weak governmental agenda control and a lack of government change. In order to explore empirically how committees solve these problems, the article focuses on the success (and later decline) over the last 30 years of the sede legislativa, a law-making procedure that formalises ‘universalism’ in Italian legislative committees. The statistical results largely confirm the theoretical expectations.     

几种"社会主义"模式的比较和科学社会主义在中国的实行

介绍西方在一百多年来探索优于资本主义制度的几种社会主义模式的情况,并阐述了他们寻找到的科学社会主义的模式,这种模式被中国的知识分子接受并广为传播,而最终成为中国共产党人的选择.     

论汉语诗歌的内在音乐境界

诗歌语言是一种音乐化语言,但诗歌不能等同于韵语。诗歌的音乐形式既是其外部声音特征,也是其内在规定,节奏、韵律仅是其本质的外在显现。音乐和诗歌都是时间艺术,其共同逻辑起点是人对于世界的时间化感知。时间是内省形式,因而不可言说,但可通过时间对象——意象得以揭示。只有当诗歌语言被用于呈现生命时间本身,诗歌才达到旋律的境界,声韵一变而为神韵。动态意象成就了诗歌的内在节奏,它使得体验者当下的时间音乐化了。律化时间片断的延续构成了生命过程本身,由此抵达诗歌的内在旋律。动态意象所形成的内在节奏与声音节奏统一,内在旋律也与声调之曲折相呼应。如此,诗、音乐、思共在。     

城市公共文化审美特征探究

形式美与内涵美的交融、静态美与动态美的契合、传统美与现代美的汇聚,是公共文化的主要审美特征。准确把握公共文化的审美特征,对于建立内涵丰富、形式优美的公共文化设施与场所,对于举办广大市民群众喜闻乐见的公共文化活动,对于营造和谐融洽的公共文化氛围,对于卓有成效地广泛开展城市公共文化建设,都具有十分重要的意义。     

Party survival in parliament: Explaining party durability in lower-house parliaments

Approximately 70 per cent of the parties emerging in the post-Second World War era failed to keep their seats in parliament. Party survival is an important issue, especially in parliamentary democracies, where parties are the means through which voters’ preferences are linked to government policy outputs. Using an event history modeling framework, and data from 37 democracies, covering 830 parties, this article analyses two questions regarding party durability. First, when do parties fail? Second, which parties survive longer? The article shows that most parties fail at the beginning of their lifespan, and disappear before the end of their fourth term in parliament. Moreover, it is found that moderate policy position, distinct ideology and participation in governing coalitions increase the duration of party survival, even when controlling for party size. This article contributes to the extensive literature about the electoral benefits of ideological moderation and distinct policy positions by showing the long-term benefits of these factors. Moreover, the long-term benefit of party participation in government in terms of survival overcomes the short-term cost of ruling.     

Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations.