Quantitative Analysis of the Morphological Changes of the Pubic Symphyseal Face and the Auricular Surface and Implications for Age at Death Estimation

Age estimation methods are often based on the age‐related morphological changes of the auricular surface and the pubic bone. In this study, a mathematical approach to quantify these changes has been tested analyzing the curvature variation on 3D models from CT and laser scans. The sample consisted of the 24 Suchey–Brooks (SB) pubic bone casts, 19 auricular surfaces from the Buckberry and Chamberlain (BC) “recording kit” and 98 pelvic bones from the Terry Collection (Smithsonian Institution). Strong and moderate correlations between phases and curvature were found in SB casts (ρ 0.60–0.93) and BC “recording kit” (ρ 0.47–0.75), moderate and weak correlations in the Terry Collection bones (pubic bones: ρ 0.29–0.51, auricular surfaces: ρ 0.33–0.50) but associated with large individual variability and overlap of curvature values between adjacent decades. The new procedure, requiring no expert judgment from the operator, achieved similar correlations that can be found in the classic methods.     

Legislative Committees as Uncertainty Reduction Devices in Multiparty Parliamentary Democracies

Most research on committees in multiparty legislatures in parliamentary democracies focuses on their role in solving intra-cabinet delegation problems. Using a straightforward spatial model, this article discusses how committees can also solve uncertainty problems that arise in settings characterised by unstable coalitions, weak governmental agenda control and a lack of government change. In order to explore empirically how committees solve these problems, the article focuses on the success (and later decline) over the last 30 years of the sede legislativa, a law-making procedure that formalises ‘universalism’ in Italian legislative committees. The statistical results largely confirm the theoretical expectations.     

Deterrence and delinquency: An analysis of individual data

Is commission of crime deterred by fear of arrest? Individual self-reported data on the commission of three crimes are analyzed in relation to perceived probabilities of arrest for more than 3000 French-speaking teenagers of the Montreal school population in 1974. The crimes are shoplifting, drug use, and stealing an item worth more than $50.00. In addition to the effect of the individuals' perceptions of the probability of arrest for the three crimes, age, sex, and previous arrest record are also taken into account. The data are all categorical. A multivariate log-linear probability model is estimated in order to test hypotheses concerning the direction and magnitude of bivariate associations among the variables. We conclude that there is clear evidence of a negative association between the subjective probability of arrest for each crime and the frequency of commission of that crime. We also find some negative cross-effects of the perceptions of the probability of arrest for one type of crime on the commission of another, holding constant the direct effects.     

Recidivism among drug offenders: A survival analysis of the effects of offender characteristics,type of offense,and two types of intervention

The determinants of recidivism are increasingly becoming the focus of public concern. This study explores the relative effect of type of intervention, offender characteristics, and type of incident offense on time to a petition to revoke probation and time to a probation revocation. Our analysis of intervention effects includes both parametric and nonparametric estimation procedures. Estimating five distributional forms of survival and a proportional hazard model for each measure of recidivism, the analysis indicates no difference in the effect of a program of drug monitoring and treatment, compared to drug monitoring only, for either of the two measures of recidivism. In addition, findings indicate that younger offenders and African American offenders have a shorter time to a petition to revoke probation. We also found a reduced time to failure for a probation revocation for African American offenders and offenders with a prior arrest record. Our findings offer empirical support for a reconsideration of the type of intervention effective in deterring offenders while on probation.     

城市公共文化审美特征探究

形式美与内涵美的交融、静态美与动态美的契合、传统美与现代美的汇聚,是公共文化的主要审美特征。准确把握公共文化的审美特征,对于建立内涵丰富、形式优美的公共文化设施与场所,对于举办广大市民群众喜闻乐见的公共文化活动,对于营造和谐融洽的公共文化氛围,对于卓有成效地广泛开展城市公共文化建设,都具有十分重要的意义。     

Micro-models of criminal careers: A synthesis of the criminal careers and life course approaches via semiparametric mixed poisson regression models,with empirical applications

Much recent research and debate in criminology have centered around how to conceptualize and model longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal acts committed by individuals. Two approaches dominate this controversy. One originates in thecriminal careers paradigm, which emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offending groups in the general population—thus leading to a distinction between incidence and prevalence of criminal offending, a focus on the onset, persistence, and desistence of criminal careers, and the possibility that criminals are a distinctive group with constant high rates of offending. Another approach places criminal events within a broader context ofstudies of the life course by explicitly substituting the conceptualization of “social events” for that of “criminal careers”. With respect to analytical models, this approach emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offenders with respect to order of criminal events from first to second to higher orders and thus suggests an analysis of the “risks” or “hazards” of offending by order of offense. Some extant commentaries on the criminal careers and life course approaches to conceptualizing and modeling longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal events committed by individuals have emphasized their differences and incompatibilities. In contrast, we apply recently developed semiparametric mixed Poisson regression techniques to develop conditions under which the two conceptual/modeling approaches are formally equivalent. We also modify the semiparametric mixed Poisson regression model of criminal careers to incorporate information on order of the delinquent/criminal event and develop an empirical application. This modification demonstrates the complementarity of the criminal careers and life course approaches, even though they have somewhat different foci.     

乌头碱在兔尸中的降解动力学研究

本文研究了灌服短柄乌头（ＡｃｏｎｉｔｕｍｂｒａｃｈｙｐｏｄｕｍＤｉｅｌｓ，简称ＡｂＤ）后，乌头碱（Ａ－ｃｏｎｉｔｉｎｅ，简称ＡＣ）在４℃保存兔厂中的降解动力学规律。结果显示，乌头碱在克厂中的降解符合表观二级动力学过程，乌头碱在肝、肾中的降解动力学方程分别为：Ｃ－１（肝）＝０．０３３９（ｔ—５）＋０．１９１８，ｃ－１（肾）＝０．０７８８（ｔ—５）＋０．５１７６，其半衰期分别为５．６６和６．５７天。     

论道德主体及主体性

道德主体及主体性的深入探讨对我国社会主义精神文明和现代化建设具有重大的现实意义,是构建社会主义道德规范和体系的重要途径。当前,为了实现中华民族的伟大复兴,必须高扬社会主义道德的主体性,完善、发展社会主义道德新风尚,净化党风,净化社会风气,提高全民族的道德意识。在民族优秀道德基础上,融合社会主义市场经济的客观要求,确立具有时代特色的邓小平道德范式。     

犯罪案前心理全景酝思博弈论

犯罪心理的欲望过滤、内审克度、雕塑目的、行为创想、连环记忆、加速期盼 6种状态反映了主体犯罪行为发生前期的一个完整的横向过程 ,它们彼此由一种酝思性的原创逻辑相联而构成案前心理的全景。在这个横向的认识截面中 ,始终存在着一类由异心理与同心理所衍生出的相反与相生、互克与互吸、对立与对应、排斥与排拉的两极精神磁场 ,从正反极点的动力机制上演绎出了一组鲜活的犯罪心理案前全景酝思博弈现象     

比较美学研究方法略论--兼论周来祥先生的贡献

中国比较美学的研究方法已日趋成熟,相继出现了同中求异、异中求同以及理论联系实际、逻辑和历史相结合等方法。周来祥先生强调的微观比较与宏观比较、求同中之异与异中之同、动态比较与静态比较相结合的原则,为比较美学的健康、深入发展提供了有普遍启示意义的方法论指导。