Using "Shocks and Rumors" to Teach Adaptive Thinking

The business landscape is constantly changing. Moreover, because of globalization, increased competition, and instant communication, the rate of change is accelerating. A student who has practiced only static scenarios is ill prepared to recognize, process, or adapt to changing negotiation issues and interests. Thus, negotiation instructors must change our practices to prepare students to succeed in the increasingly dynamic negotiation situations they will face by utilizing simulations that are also dynamic. This article reviews research on adaptive thinking, applies it to negotiation training, and provides examples of dynamic simulations that require students to adapt. Finally, it offers advice on how to make existing cases dynamic by using "shocks and rumors."     

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0–12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation.     

Forensic Analysis of Digital Dynamic Signatures: New Methods for Data Treatment and Feature Evaluation

This study explored digital dynamic signatures containing quantifiable dynamic data. The change in data content and nature necessitates the development of new data treatment approaches. A SignPad Omega digitizing tablet was used to assess measurement reproducibility, as well as within‐writer variation and the occurrence of correctly simulated features. Measurement reproducibility was found to be high except for pressure information. Within‐writer variation was found to be higher between days than on a same day. Occurrence of correct simulation was low for features such as signature size, trajectory length, and total signature time. Feature discrimination factors combining within‐writer variability and the occurrence of correctly simulated features were computed and show that signature size, trajectory length, and signature time are the features that perform the best for discriminating genuine from simulated signatures. A final experiment indicates that dynamic information can be used to create connections between simulation cases.     

论经济法调整对象范围的动态性

经济法的调整对象是在国家协调本国经济运行过程中发生的经济关系 ,具有特定性 ,其调整对象的范围不是恒定不变的 ,呈现动态性特征。不同国家不同时期的经济法 ,由于社会关系、价值目标不同 ,调整对象的范围也不同。以经济法调整对象范围的动态性为基点 ,结合我国的基本国情 ,阐释现阶段建立以宏观调控和市场规制并重为核心的经济法体系的合理性。     

The dynamic character of disguise behavior for text-based, mixed, and stylized signatures

The aims of this study were to determine if dynamic parameters (duration, size, velocity, jerk, and pen pressure) differed for signing style (text-based, stylized, and mixed) and if signing style influences handwriting dynamics equally across three signature conditions (genuine, disguised, and auto-simulation). Ninety writers provided 10 genuine signatures, five disguised signatures, and five auto-simulated signatures. All 1800 signatures were collected using a digitizing tablet resulting in a database of each signature's dynamic characteristics. With genuine signatures, there were significant differences between styles for size, velocity, and pen pressure, and there were significant differences between genuine signatures and at least one of the un-natural signature conditions for all parameters. For velocity and size, these changes with condition were dependent on style. Changes with condition for the other parameters were similar for the three styles. This study shows that there are differences among natural signature styles and disguise behaviors that may be relevant in forensic signature examinations.     

Three-dimensional modeling of the various volumes of canines to determine age and sex: a preliminary study

Canines are usually used in anthropological and forensic sciences for sex and age determination. The best methods to estimate age are based on secondary dentine apposition, evaluated from periapical X-rays. The aim of this study was to propose a new method of sex and age estimation using 3D models to obtain more precise predictions using tooth volumes. Fifty-eight dental CT scans of patients aged 14-74 with a well-balanced sex ratio composed the sample. One hundred and thirty-three healthy canines were modeled (Mimics 12.0). The sample was divided into a training sample and a validation sample. An age formula was determined using the "pulp volume/tooth volume" ratio. Sex prediction was adjusted with total volumes. Applying the equations to the validation sample, no significant difference was found between the real and predicted ages, and 100% of the sex predictions were correct. This preliminary study gives interesting results, and this method is worth being tested on a larger data sample.     

公安机关处置群体性事件研究

群体性事件是当前影响我国社会政治稳定的主要因素之一,而公安机关作为维护社会政治稳定的基础力量,其处置机制的建立健全具有重要意义。因而,需要对公安机关处置群体性事件的理论基础加以阐释,并对我国现行的群体性事件进行动态和静态的分析,从中找出问题并加以完善。     

A Two‐Level Model for Evidence Evaluation in the Presence of Zeros*

Abstract: Likelihood ratios (LRs) provide a natural way of computing the value of evidence under competing propositions. We propose LR models for classification and comparison that extend the ideas of Aitken, Zadora, and Lucy and Aitken and Lucy to include consideration of zeros. Instead of substituting zeros by a small value, we view the presence of zeros as informative and model it using Bernoulli distributions. The proposed models are used for evaluation of forensic glass (comparison and classification problem) and paint data (comparison problem). Two hundred and sixty‐four glass samples were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer method and 36 acrylic topcoat paint samples by pyrolysis gas chromatography hyphened with mass spectrometer method. The proposed LR model gave very satisfactory results for the glass comparison problem and for most of the classification tasks for glass. Results of comparison of paints were also highly satisfactory, with only 3.0% false positive answers and 2.8% false negative answers.     

走向双重维度的研究——德美法学教育的研究性及其启示

研究性教学旨在通过学生主体参与,培养学生理论研究与创新工作的能力。德美法学教育改革中逐步凸显的理论指向与实践指向平衡发展的研究性教学,对我国当前的法学教育深有启迪。借鉴德美研究性教学经验,发展适合我国法学本科研究性教学的具体模式,将为完善我国当前的本科法学教育提供新的思考。