Economic voting in Latin America: A general model

Economics and elections have been much-studied in the highincome democracies of North America and Europe. However, little is known, especially comparatively, about economic voting in low-income democracies, such as those of Latin America. Here we offer the first comparative election study of the economic vote in this region. We apply a series of ever-more demanding statistical tests to an election survey pool of 12 Latin American nations, measured at three time periods (total N > 7000). Unambiguously, the finding is of highly significant, even strong, sociotropic retrospective economic effects on the incumbent vote. In Latin America, as in other democratic nations studied thus far, governments are rewarded or punished, according to the economic performance they command.     

International terrorism in the Mediterranean: A legal response

The new French scheme for a Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), officially inaugurated on 13 July, has stirred up a great deal of controversy inside the EU. Even in its watered-down form, the initiative promises to relaunch the stalled relations between the two sides of the Mediterranean in the context of the Barcelona Process. Though vulnerable to all manner of external shocks linked to the multiple inter- and intra-state conflicts around the Mediterranean, the Sarkozy plan is a welcome move to a greater degree of “co-ownership” through the institution of a joint presidency. Of great importance in the interest of overcoming at least some of the problems that have bedeviled the Barcelona Process is further “decentring” of Euro-Med politics away from Brussels and more comprehensive trade opening by the EU.     

First-order,second-order or third-rate? A comparison of turnout in European,local and national elections in the Netherlands

Second-order elections are characterized by low turnout. According to the second-order theory this is because people feel there is less at stake. This study tests whether the less at stake argument holds at the macro and micro level using panel survey data obtained in three different Dutch elections. Furthermore, it examines whether campaigns' mobilizing potential differs between first- and second-order elections. We find that at the macro level perceived stakes and low turnout go hand in hand and differ strongly between national, local and European elections. At the micro level the impact of perceived stakes on turnout is limited and contingent on the type of election. Also, campaign exposure affects turnout, but the effect is substantially larger in second-order contests.     

La descentralización de los procesos de selección de candidatos en los partidos y su impacto en la nominación de mujeres en los Congresos Estatales de México

The analysis of state democratization includes recent studies of the methods by which political parties are selected, and their possible effect on the political participation of women. Considering the renewal of Mexican federalism, which took place since the dismantling of the presidential regime at the end of the 1990s, this article brings together issues of decentralization and party nomination processes, as well as “selectorate agencies” and the formal institutions that limit them in order to question the effect of the combined presence of these factors on women’s political participation patterns. The article analyzes local election data from twelve states in Mexico, focusing on the period 1998 to 2012. The evidence reveals that in the case of Mexico, decentralization has had no effect on nominations made by a relative majority. Furthermore, it suggests that centralization in decision-making is an important factor in achieving the nomination of more women based on the principle of proportional representation.     

Potholes,pensions, and public opinion: the politics of blame in Putin's power vertical

What are the risks and rewards of power centralization in competitive authoritarian regimes, and who in the regime bears those risks and enjoys the rewards? The elimination of gubernatorial elections in Russia in late 2004 provides a unique opportunity to study public reaction to policies that replaced democratically elected regional leaders with Kremlin appointees, thereby further concentrating power in the hands of the central state while simultaneously reducing the level of democratic accountability in Russian politics. Using a 2007 survey of 1500 Russians, it is possible to observe how key measures of public opinion and regime support were influenced by the elimination of gubernatorial elections. Because the timeline of gubernatorial appointments was determined exogenously based on the expiration of elected incumbent governors' terms, by 2007 some regions had governors who still held electoral mandates, while others had Kremlin appointees with no electoral mandate. This quasi experiment allows us to draw surprising conclusions about whom Russians blame – and do not blame – when power becomes increasingly centralized in the hands of the president.     

Aid ‐ a seriously flawed concept: The case of Zimbabwe

From near self‐sufficiency at independence in 1980, Zimbabwe is now suffering from the repercussions of an addiction to aid that is leaving the country increasingly debilitated and dependent.     

Choosing Coalition Partners in Belgian Local Government

Government formation is a crucial phase after elections. This article focusses on coalition formation in Belgian local government after the elections in 2006. Coalition theories have mainly been developed at the national level, but they are also applicable to the local level where there is no shortage of coalitions. This level offers the opportunity to not only test rather classic coalition theories such as minimum size theories or the coalitions’ incumbency status. In a federal state like Belgium we can compare the local coalitions with coalitions made at higher levels. The results show that the local political parties prefer to form minimal winning and minimum parties coalitions, but not the smallest coalition that is possible. Coalitions are also more likely to form when they represent the incumbent coalition. Finally, political parties prefer congruent coalitions with the federal and regional government.     

Evaluating authorial ‘objectivity’ and ‘stancetaking’ in reporting the making of a new constitution in Zimbabwean newspapers

ABSTRACT

Zimbabwe held ‘fresh’ elections on July 31, 2013 under a new constitution. This was in line with the provisions of the Global Political Agreement (GPA), a political power-sharing compromise signed between Zimbabwe's three main political parties, following the heavily disputed 2008 harmonised presidential and parliamentary elections. The GPA established in Zimbabwe a Government of National Unity (GNU). On the road to making a new constitution, political differences and party politicking always seemed to take precedence over national interest. This political polarity in Zimbabwe resulted in the heavy polarity of the media, especially along political ideological grounds. The new constitution-making process and all its problems received heavy coverage in almost all national newspapers. This article analyses the discourse-linguistic notion of ‘objectivity’ in ‘hard’ news reports on the new constitution-making process by comparing the textuality of ‘hard’ news reports from two Zimbabwean national daily newspapers: the government-owned and controlled Herald and the privately owned Newsday. Focusing on how language and linguistic resources are used evaluatively in ways that betray authorial attitudes and bias in news reporting, the article examines how the news reports uphold or flout the ‘objectivity’ ideal as explicated through the ‘reporter voice’ configuration, and within Appraisal Theory.     

No Return to the Past for Russia

Russian society is awakening and issues of domestic political and economic performance have come under closer scrutiny. To respond to the change, the Kremlin has moved to modify its method of governance – and strengthen its instruments of control – but there can be no return to the past. How the political process will evolve, and what the results will be, is impossible to predict, but the change will impact on Russia's domestic and foreign policies. In the meantime, Russia's international partners will have to deal with a familiar set of policies aimed at balancing between Moscow's real needs, its views of Russia's role and the opportunities which present themselves.