Is the Department of Defense Properly Sized and Configured to Meet Future Needs? A Post‐September 11 Perspective,

Abstract

With the events of September 11 still fresh and with the “war” on terrorism in progress, now is the ideal time to discuss the most important single issue in the Department of Defense (DoD)—the mission/budget mismatch. Prior to the September 30, 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, the stated mission of DoD was to be able “to deter and defeat nearly simultaneous large‐scale, cross‐border aggression in two distant theaters in overlapping time frames, preferably in concert with regional allies.” To accomplish this mission, DoD needed significantly more resources in the order of $50 billion to $100 billion per year. Also to fight and win two major theater wars required that DoD maintain especially large forces, which, with limited resources, could lead to “hollowness” or under funding of certain key force components such as airlift and sealift. While not abandoning the two‐war requirement, the most recent Quadrennial Defense Review took an important step in modifying this requirement by moving toward a “win‐hold‐win” strategy. Although still two war requirements, this new strategy required that we would “win” on one front, “hold” on in a second front, and then shift our forces to the second front after a victory on the first front. Should DoD size its forces around two major theater wars, a “win‐hold‐win” strategy, or around only one major theater war? This article argues for the latter option and thus for a “transformational” force which is smaller than past forces but is a highly mobile, highly trained, and highly equipped military force.     

Contracting for Energy Efficiency: The Diffusion of Novel Contracting Practices at Local Government Level

Abstract

Studies on contracting out have provided much needed knowledge about the effect of contracting on different types of services, yet much remains unknown about the antecedents driving the adoption of new contracting practices. The focus of previous studies that have addressed the antecedents of contracting has been on the financial benefit of specific services. This study incorporates the innovation diffusion literature to explore organisational and managerial influences on a novel contracting practice: the contracting out of energy efficiency improvement services in Danish municipalities. The paper finds that the antecedents driving the adoption of contracting out may result from inter-organisational influences as much as managerial factors.     

An education in homecoming: peace education as the pursuit of ‘appropriate knowledge’

In this paper, we argue that two key trends – an unfolding ecological crisis and a reduction in the amount of (cheap) energy available to society – bring into question both the relevance and the resilience of existing educational systems, requiring us to rethink both the content and the form of education in general, and peace education in particular. Against this background, we consider the role education might play in enabling citizens and societies to adapt peacefully to conditions of energy descent and a less benign ecological system, taking seriously the possibility that there will be fewer resources available for education. Drawing on Wes Jackson’s and Wendell Berry’s concept of an education in ‘homecoming’, and on E.F. Schumacher’s concept of ‘appropriate technology’, we suggest a possible vision of peace education. We propose that such education might be focused around ‘appropriate knowledge’, commitment to place, and an understanding of the needs and characteristics of each local context. We then consider an example of what this might mean in practice, particularly under conditions of increasing resource scarcity: Permaculture education in El Salvador, we suggest, illustrates the characteristics and relevance of an education that aims to foster ‘appropriate knowledge’ within a particular and very challenging context. The paper concludes by considering the wider implications of our argument.     

Geopolitical Implications of the US Unconventional Energy Revolution

The unconventional oil and gas revolution is certainly a game changer in the current international political setting, since it will bring the United States close to energy self-sufficiency. However, it seems unlikely that this new energy status will dramatically redefine US foreign policy and security priorities. In strategic regions such as the Middle East, US interests are expected to remain unchanged, while the new energy status will contribute only in part to modifying the US approach towards the EU’s energy posture vis-à-vis Russia. What the new American energy condition is likely to change are the tools and policy options available to Washington to cope with the strategic challenges – China’s power in primis – emerging in the multipolar international relations system.     

Battle Losses and Rebel Violence: Raising the Costs for Fighting

In many armed conflicts, rebel groups deliberately target civilians. This article examines whether such violence is related to the performance of the rebels on the battlefield. It is proposed that rebel groups who are losing battles target civilians in order to impose extra costs on the government. When rebels attack civilians, the government may incur both political and military costs. Violence against civilians is thus used as an alternative conflict strategy aimed at pressuring the government into concessions. The argument is evaluated by using monthly data for rebel groups involved in armed conflict from January 2002 to December 2004.     

A Counterterrorism Strategy for the Obama Administration

This article assesses the scope and nature of the current terrorist threat to the United States and suggests a strategy to counter it. Al-Qaeda continues to pose the most serious terrorist threat to the U.S. today. If the September 11, 2001 attacks have taught us anything, it is that al-Qaeda is most dangerous when it has a sanctuary or safe haven from which to plan and plot attacks. Al-Qaeda has acquired such a sanctuary in Pakistan's Federal Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and its North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and surrounding environs. Accordingly, the highest priority for the new American presidential administration must be to refocus our—and our allies'—attention on Afghanistan and Pakistan, where al-Qaeda began to collapse after 2001, but has now re-grouped. This will entail understanding that al-Qaeda and its local militant jihadi allies cannot be defeated by military means alone. Success will require a dual strategy of systematically destroying and weakening enemy capabilities—that is, continuing to kill and capture al-Qaeda commanders and operatives—along with breaking the cycle of terrorist recruitment among radicalized “bunches of guys” as well as more effectively countering al-Qaeda's effective information operations. The U.S. thus requires a strategy that harnesses the overwhelming kinetic force of the American military as part of a comprehensive vision to transform other, non-kinetic instruments of national power in order to deal more effectively with irregular and unconventional threats. This article first discusses the scope and details of the terrorist threat today and then proposes a counterterrorism strategy for the new presidential administration. It focuses first on creating a micro approach to address the deteriorating situation in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. It then considers the requirements of a broader macro strategy to counter terrorism and insurgency.     

China's security agenda after the cold war

The end of the cold war has changed China's basic perception of world politics and its conception of national security. In the cold war era, Chinese leaders tended to view national security from the perspective of global balance of power and China's strategic relations with the two superpowers. It was in Beijing's security interests to maintain a comfortable position in a strategic triangular relationship with the Soviet Union and the United States. When the Soviet Empire and the East European communist regimes collapsed, the structure of the postwar international system dissolved, and the old parameters for Beijing's security strategy disappeared. The Chinese leadership suddenly found itself in a totally new world in which China needed to reorient and redefine its security strategy on a new strategic axis.

Beijing's security strategy after the cold war is redefined by its domestic priorities, growing foreign economic relations, the new security environment in Asia, and concerns over territorial disputes. In a sense, the myopic conception of security based on war and peace is fading away. Beijing's thinking on national security becomes more inclusive, diverse, and complicated. The nature and intensity of external threats has changed. China's growing economic ties with the outside world have redirected Beijing's attention to economic interests and security. The Chinese leadership realizes that its security is affected not only by the military forces of other countries, but also by political, economic, societal, and environmental factors in international relations Beijing needs to employ both traditional military defence and non‐military actions to safeguard its territorial integrity and to realize its full capacity in world affairs.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse China's security agendas after the cold war. It first examines the impact of the end of the cold war on China's thinking on national security, then discusses Beijing's threat perception and changing defence strategy. This is followed by an examination of domestic stability considerations and economic interests in Beijing's security strategy. Finally, it discusses the implications of China's growing power for regional security.     

Rethinking the Europe‐Taiwan relationship

This article attempts to construct an overview of Japan's defence problematique in the post‐cold war era. Its approach is to survey the historical legacies that have shaped Japan's defence policies and perceptions, and to assess how these fit, or do not fit, with the new security environment within which Japan now finds itself. The purpose is to argue that a policy of non‐offensive defence (NOD) could solve many of the difficult defence questions that Japan now faces. As a consequence, the discussion will concentrate mainly on military and political issues, mostly leaving aside questions of economic, societal and environmental security on the grounds that these issues interact less strongly with NOD. Section 1 considers the geopolitics of Japan's security that arise from its being an island country. Section 2 analyses some crucial historical considerations, particularly Japan's status as a great power, and the particular circumstances of its historical relationship with its neighbours. Section 3 looks at Japan's position during the cold war, examining how the legacies of its defeat in the Second World War blended into the demands placed upon it as a front‐line ally of the United States against Chinese and Soviet power. Section 4 surveys the actual and possible changes in Japan's security environment consequent upon the ending of the cold war. It focuses on Japan's relationships with the United States, the East Asian region, the international system as a whole, and finally on Japan's relationship with itself. Section 5 considers the requirements for a Japanese defence and security policy in the post‐cold war era.     

Political Marketing Matters

ABSTRACT

The effects of political marketing are difficult to measure. This article contends that “multi-dimensional case analysis”-i.e., the comparison of similar elections across demographic levels and across time-can reliably assess the impact of political marketing on campaign outcomes. A multi-dimensional examination of Congressman Harold Ford Jr.'s sophomore surge demonstrates the potential impact of candidate positioning. Specifically, the congressman's shift to the center of his Memphis, Tennessee, constituency significantly enhanced his electoral performance. This substantive finding carries a methodological lesson: the evaluation of marketing effects is greatly improved through the use of a tightly structured research design that employs, not large-scale statistical analysis or controlled field experimentation, but in-depth, case-by-case investigation.     

Tempus Fugit

SUMMARY

This study examines campaign schedules from a sample of congressional and legislative candidates in Texas in the November 2002 general election. The schedules show that candidates focus most of their time on voter contact activities, followed by political activities. Despite expectations, fund raising is not the most common activity on campaigns. The data further demonstrate that congressional candidates spend much more time on the campaign trail than state legislative candidates, and a great deal more time raising money. Also, candidates in rural districts spend a greater proportion of their time on political activities, while urban and suburban candidates focus more attention on fund raising. The structure of these different types of districts seems to provide campaigns with different avenues of most efficiently contacting voters.