Patterns of precursor behaviors in the life span of a U.S. environmental terrorist group

Research Summary
This article discusses the paucity of data available for assessing the "life span" of a terrorist group. It introduces a new methodology that allows researchers to examine when terrorist groups perform their preincident activities. The findings suggest that differences exist in the temporal patterns of terrorist groups: environmental terrorist groups engage in a relatively short planning cycle compared with right-wing and international terrorists. The article concludes by examining a case study on "the Family," which is a unique environmental terrorist group that conducted activities over a relatively long period of time. This group provides an interesting contrast to other environmental terrorists. Despite significant organizational differences, their patterns of preparatory conduct were highly similar.
Policy Implications
The findings suggest that (1) temporal and spatial data about preincident terrorist activity can be collected from unclassified and open sources and (2) law-enforcement agencies that are investigating environmental groups have relatively little time to observe and infiltrate their individual cells (compared with right-wing and international terrorists). Finally, the data suggest that environmental terrorists—at least so far—have engaged in attacks that are less deadly than the comparison groups.     

检法分歧现象的审视与思考

检法分歧是司法实践中的客观现象,观察这一现象可以发现问题、探寻规律。本文以实证考察为出发点,以点代面,全面展示了司法实践中的这一现象,深入剖析其中的原因,探寻规律,并在此基础上进行了理性反思和对策研究。     

宗教批判之图式:知性、理性和实践

从启蒙思想家的理智性宗教到黑格尔的理性宗教再到马克思对宗教的解构,宗教批判图式经历了从知性、理性再到实践的深度延展。启蒙思想家和黑格尔对宗教之批判仍停驻于观念的王国中,费尔巴哈使批判从天国下降到尘世,实现了神学世俗化之还原,马克思以生产实践为解读依据,通过对宗教奥秘的经济学解码,敞开了被宗教遮蔽的历史内容,完成了宗教批判的实践转向。启蒙对宗教采取知性形而上学之批判方法,规避了宗教中飘忽不定的非理性要素,避居于理智之无可辩驳、永恒的自然法则中,建立了理智性宗教。黑格尔站在理性辩证批判之立场上,从宗教中汲取了人性最深刻的灵感和富源,克服了理智性宗教的道德缺位,把全部理智力量和道德力量扩展到上帝的概念中,使神学置于绝对理性辩证演化之下,建立了真正的理性宗教。马克思在实践基础上廓清了宗教史上对宗教本质的迷雾般幻象,以经济科学为依据,深度解读了经济异化与宗教异化之间的隐秘链接,显示了历史决定论的方法论力量。     

论结合犯

我国刑法存在大量的结合犯条款,且其类型并不限于以往学界所界定的类型。承认结合犯存在的客观现实有助于理解不同的罪数形态以及法条竞合。对于结合犯立法的缺陷,可以通过适当解释加以完善。     

北京文化金融发展模式研究

文化创意产业发展需要金融的大力支持。北京市不断创新文化金融发展模式,通过财政拨款、银行贷款、股权融资、债权融资和民间资本等方式,实现了文化创意产业的跨越式发展。但在发展文化金融的过程中,北京仍存在着许多问题。为此,建议北京继续深化文化金融改革,创新财政资金支持政策,建设文化金融创新试验区,开发建设综合服务平台,营造文化金融发展环境,不断推动文化创意产业的发展。     

新就业形态中非典型雇佣关系影响因素及优化

在相关理论模型的基础上,通过对 10 个典型的 C2C 互联网企业的深入调研及访谈构建了非典型 雇佣关系影响因素模型,并进行了实证检验。研究发现,宏观政策、宏观经济、平台企业、劳动者、消费者等 多个层面因素都对非典型雇佣关系有显著作用效果。在此基础上,本文还提出了非典型雇佣关系优化的调解机制、 制度安排和政策选择。     

早期文明与美感类型

在各类早期文明中,美感的总特征是以实体之神为主和以神庙为主的美感体系,具体来讲,又可分为以埃及为代表的人兽一体之神为主,以两河为代表的人兽相伴为主,以及从克里特到希腊的人形为主、中国的以天地四方为结构进行安排的人体和物饰一体,印度的把历史演进整合为神的多面形象的美感体系。     

Sequential angulation,spatial dispersion and consistency of distance attack patterns from home in serial murder,rape and burglary

Abstract

Three related measures of spatial movement (sequential angulation, spatial dispersion and consistency of distance in attack target) were compared across three serial offence types: serial homicide (n=35), serial rape (n=41) and serial burglary (n=30). In each case, each offender had committed at least five offences. “Spatial dispersion”, defined as the extent to which an offender distributes his offences across either a focused or relatively more evenly distributed area, revealed that burglary was less evenly distributed (i.e. more focused) than rape and murder. “Sequential angulation”, defined as the degree of rotational movement around the home of the offender from one offence to the next, revealed that serial murderers have higher angulation scores than do rapists who, in turn, have higher angulation scores than burglars. Lastly, a comparison of the offender's consistency in the relative distance travelled from home to each attack site (“consistency of distance in attack target”) was relatively similar across the three groups. This was despite the comparison of different serial offence types from disparate geographical areas. The supposition that differences in dispersion and sequential angulation scores across crime types are related to the perceived risk of the crime has been confirmed. The specificity and the mobility of the targets are also discussed.     

Network migration,marriage patterns,and adaptation in rural Portugal and among Portuguese immigrants in Argentina, 1870–1980

This article examines marriage patterns among immigrants and their children as a way to analyze the interplay of primary social networks and local conditions in the social adaptation of two communities of Portuguese immigrants in Argentina. Its main focus is on the factors involved in marriages within the same ethnic group and their evolution over time from a comparative perspective. The analysis considers aspects of marital selection in the main places of origin of the immigrants in the Algarve, southern Portugal, and their influence in the places of settlement; the factors that influenced the selection of spouses in both communities by gender and over time; and the changes from the first to the second generation. Factors, such as gender, the nature and rhythm of immigration, and the occupation of the immigrants and their families, proved very important in marital selection. Environmental factors were also significant. Oil production dominated Comodoro Rivadavia, while intensive family farming in a suburban setting characterized Villa Elisa. Through the comparative analysis of these two contrasting, receiving societies, the article examines the interplay between primary social networks based on national and ethnic origin and socioeconomic local conditions.     

Jewish–Gentile intermarriage in pre-war Amsterdam

Intermarriage is generally regarded as the litmus test in the process of assimilation of ethnic-minority groups. The Jewish community in Amsterdam was a religious minority. When a Jew married a Gentile it was assumed that Judaism lost a family. Odds ratio calculations based on marriage tables for 1911–1941 show that the rate of intermarriage among Jews was much lower than among Catholics, Protestants and religious unaffiliated. Although the Jewish community might still be more homogeneous than the Protestant and Catholic communities, it was rapidly assimilating as the log odds ratios for Jews dropped more heavily. While mutual aversion is reflected in the remaining high log odds ratios for Jewish–Catholic marriages, Jewish–Protestant marriages and Jewish–unaffiliated marriages increased because of the higher propensity among Protestants to marry a Jew and the higher propensity among Jews to marry an unaffiliated spouse from the 1920s onwards. Next, we created life courses for a sample of 480 descendants from Jewish grandparents living in Amsterdam in 1941 of whom we know were married to a Gentile or to a Jew. The collected data from the Amsterdam registry allow us to test several hypotheses on preferences, opportunities and third parties in a logistic regression analysis. One's own affiliation significantly influenced the preference to marry a Gentile or a Jew. Successive marriage cohorts showed a higher chance to marry a Gentile among those who had Jewish parents at birth. A similar but weaker effect is found for those born in the old Jewish neighborhood. These differences in effect on later marriage cohorts indicate that religious and social barriers within the Jewish community had largely diminished. Opportunities like the social network of the mother and the living district during one's adolescents' age also significantly influenced the choice of a spouse.