Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

民事诉讼审级制度的新思考

在我国民事诉讼实践中 ,两审终审的审级制度有蜕化为“一审终审”的危险 ,加上其他一些弊端 ,两审终审制度渐呈难以为继的趋势。在构建我国三审终审制过程中 ,不必拘泥于三审上诉为“法律审”的限制 ,而应当考虑审级制度与再审程序的互相协调、作用互补。同时 ,要对现行各级法院的职能作出调整和分工 ,从组织机构上保障三审终审制度真正得到实施。     

构成要件与诉讼证明关系论纲

刑事程序法以证据来证明犯罪事实，刑事实体法以犯罪事实符合犯罪构成要件来认定犯罪。构成要件与诉讼证明以犯罪事实为纽带紧密关联，相互影响。犯罪构成要件通过对犯罪事实的勾勒和形塑决定证明方向，划定证明范围，依据不同要件的分类影响证明责任的分配。诉讼证明对犯罪构成要件的影响主要是通过实践中惯常性的证明困难倒逼犯罪构成要件就其结构和具体要素作出必要的调整和修正。引入绝对责任和客观处罚条件、构建阶梯型罪名、设立抽象危险犯、建立推定制度以及通过刑法解释合理缩减证明范围，将主观要件类型化为若干客观情节都是刑法为了满足证明的需要就犯罪构成要件作出的完善。     

Firearm examination: Examiner judgments and computer‐based comparisons

Forensic firearm examination provides the court of law with information about the source of fired cartridge cases. We assessed the validity of source decisions of a computer‐based method and of 73 firearm examiners who compared breechface and firing pin impressions of 48 comparison sets. We also compared the computer‐based method's comparison scores with the examiners' degree‐of‐support judgments and assessed the validity of the latter. The true‐positive rate (sensitivity) and true‐negative rate (specificity) of the computer‐based method (for the comparison of both the breechface and firing pin impressions) were 94.4% and at least 91.7%, respectively. For the examiners, the true‐positive rate was at least 95.3% and the true‐negative rate was at least 86.2%. The validity of the source decisions improved when the evaluations of breechface and firing pin impressions were combined and for the examiners also when the perceived difficulty of the comparison decreased. The examiners were reluctant to provide source decisions for "difficult" comparisons even though their source decisions were mostly correct. The correlation between the computer‐based method's comparison scores and the examiners' degree‐of‐support judgments was low for the same‐source comparisons to negligible for the different‐source comparisons. Combining the outcomes of computer‐based methods with the judgments of examiners could increase the validity of firearm examinations. The examiners' numerical degree‐of‐support judgments for their source decisions were not well‐calibrated and showed clear signs of overconfidence. We suggest studying the merits of performance feedback to calibrate these judgments.     

Egocentric Ethics

Ethical judgments are often egocentrically biased, such that moral reasoners tend to conclude that self-interested outcomes are not only desirable but morally justifiable. Although such egocentric ethics can arise from deliberate self-interested reasoning, we suggest that they may also arise through unconscious and automatic psychological mechanisms. People automatically interpret their perceptions egocentrically, automatically evaluate stimuli on a semantic differential as positive or negative, and base their moral judgments on affective reactions to stimuli. These three automatic and unconscious features of human judgment can help to explain not only why ethical judgments are egocentrically biased, but also why such subjective perceptions can appear objective and unbiased to moral reasoners themselves.     

发达国家发展循环经济的历程及启示

走可持续发展之路是人类对未来发展的共识，发展循环经济则是实现资源节约、减少环境污染和实现可持续发展的科学途径。认识国外的发达国家的发展历程，结合中国的实际情况，深入提高循环经济是个系统的整体的可持续的发展模式，是系统构建和谐社会发展的必由之路。     

"形式"论

艺术作品的形式是由“物”转化而来的 ,是以极为感性的形态而存在着的 ,这种形态总括、浓缩了艺术家对世界和人生的某个方面的总体感受、评价、认识 ,并使它们由内隐、抽象、难以言传而变得具体可感。它们也包含了读者既有的审美经验的作用 ,一种主观的投射 ,进行审美再创造的契机。提炼新的“形式”是艺术创造的关键     

加拿大的强制执行制度

加拿大是一个联邦制国家。加拿大对民事判决的执行由各省制定的强制执行法令来调整。本文比较详细地介绍了加拿大强制执行制度的基本内容和操作程序 ,包括登记生效判决、执行令的申请、询问债务人、收集债务人财产的途径、不得执行的财产范围、扣押、对债务人的监禁及对债务人恶意转移财产的补救等内容。     

我国行政诉讼全面审查制度再思考——法院对行政机关认定事实的态度分析

我国人民法院对行政机关认定事实采取怀疑或否定态度,对行政机关认定事实实行全面审查。英美法系国家法院对行政机关的事实认定采取尊重态度,对事实问题采用宽松的审查标准。大陆法系国家行政诉讼一般不区分事实问题和法律问题,都进行全面审查。我国应当重新思考人民法院的全面审查制度,对专业性和技术性强的行政案件,以及行政机关适用简易程序当场作出决定的案件,人民法院应当尊重行政机关对事实的认定。对一般案件事实,如果法律规定以具备某种性质为要件时,审查行政机关对事实性质的判断是否符合法律的规定。对于重大的或对当事人利益有重大影响的行政案件,进行全面审查。     

The arc and the zip: Deleuze and lyotard on art

Lyotard and Deleuze made extensive use of modern art to mount a critique of representation as part of their attack on the enlightenment subject. Art breaks out of received rules, conventions, forms, and cliches and is an instance of ethical if not revolutionary activity. Lyotard first developed these ideas through the concept of the Figure, which Deleuze later adopted. Figure is the desire or force that transgresses and deforms the good form of mimetic representation. Using Cezanne and Francis Bacon as paradigmatic examples, they argue that art creates new feelings and desires (Lyotard) or intensities and sensations (Deleuze). For Deleuze this is the model of ethical behavior -- the creation of new, productive forms of life free from the negativity of judgment. While Lyotard and Deleuze started from a common point, Lyotard changed his position in his later work on the sublime. Rather than positing a subject of purely affirmative desire and ideally free of the limitations of judgment, he posited a subject seized by and limited by the law. The subject is by nature divided: always already seized by and hostage to an Other, an unrepresentable excess or remainder. He is under an obligation to recollect and respond to the Other by bearing witness to it. The sublime experience of seizure by the law is exemplified in the paintings of Barnett Newman. While Deleuze would have done with judgment, Lyotard can never have done with it.