A study on JPEG steganalytic features: Co-occurrence matrix vs. Markov transition probability matrix

Statistical feature selection is a key issue affecting the performance of steganalytic methods. In this paper, a performance comparison method for different types of image steganalytic features was proposed firstly based on the changing rates. Then, for two types of typical steganalytic features – co-occurrence matrix and Markov transition probability matrix, the performances of them were discussed and theoretically compared for detecting two types of well-known JPEG steganography that preserve DCT coefficients histogram and lead the histogram to shrink respectively. At last, a conclusion on the sensitivity comparison between components of these two types of features was derived: for the steganography that preserve the histogram, their sensitivities are comparable to each other; whereas for the other one (such as the steganography that subtract 1 from absolute value of the coefficient), different feature components have different sensitivities, on the basis of that, a new steganalytic feature could be obtained by fusing better components. Experimental results based on detection of three typical JPEG steganography (F5, Outguess and MB1) verified the theoretical comparison results, and showed that the detection accuracy of the fused new feature outperforms that of existing typical features.     

Communist regimes,legitimacy and the transition to democracy in Eastern Europe

The purpose of this article is to clarify the relationship between forms of political legitimacy employed by communist regimes in East and Central Europe and subsequent models of revolutionary change in 1989. The conceptual basis of the analysis lies in Max Weber's theoretical framework of legitimacy. The four cases selected for comparison are Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania. The attempts of de-Stalinization and reformation of these party-state regimes through the introduction of paternalistic and also more goal-oriented measures could not prevent their disintegration in the 1980s and their subsequent collapse in 1989. But, I argue, it was the withdrawal of ideological support by elites that ultimately brought communism to an end. The differences in revolutionary scenarios and transitions to democracy in the four cases indicate the importance of a shift in both rulers and masses towards interest in dialogue and compromise. Hungary and Poland represent the clearest scenarios in which communist parties acted as agents of regime change in a rational-legal direction. The Bulgarian case stands as an intermediary case between these two and Romania. Finally, Romania represents an extreme case of violent revolution and the overthrow of a traditionalist and sultanistic regime and illustrates the difficulties following a complete collapse of political authority.     

The “Pugachev rebellion” in the context of post‐Soviet Kazakh nationalization*

Football (soccer) provides a useful prism for analysis of the long transition of the Serbian state and society since 1991. To a striking extent, the world of professional football and the attendant phenomena of financial corruption and football hooliganism have informed both the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia and the current concerted attempt to create a “European Serbia.” During the 1990s, football in Serbia to a significant extent became synonymous with organized crime and the criminalization of the Serbian state. Since 2000, the persistent phenomena of crime, violent hooliganism and lethargic reforms have mirrored the difficult and halting transition of the post-Milo?evi? state. Although recent events highlight the reluctance of the Serbian authorities to confront these problems, both government and sports officials are coming to see reform of Serbian football as a key element of the establishment of the rule of law.     

Transition modes and post-transition inter-party politics: Evidence from Spain (1977–82) and Argentina (1983–89)

This article tests whether the mode of transition from authoritarian rule affects the competitiveness of inter-party politics in the post-transition democratic regime. It draws on a six-year study of the degree of cross-party collaboration in the legislative arena immediately following the Spanish (1976/77) transition by pact and the Argentine (1982/83) transition by collapse. The study finds that the nascent democracy in Spain experienced more collaborative inter-party politics than the new Argentine democracy, which is consistent with the democratization literature. After discussing the constitutional structure and gravity of economic crisis as alternative explanations of the degree of inter-party competitiveness, the study concludes that the mode of transition is an essential explanatory variable. It also identifies the causal mechanisms that may explain the link between the mode of transition and post-transition inter-party competitiveness, namely the opportunities for political learning, the patterns of political elite continuity and the military's role in the transition process.     

How democracy ends,by David Runciman

In 2006, Poland and Romania embarked on renewed lustration programmes. These late lustration policies expanded the scope and transparency measures associated with lustration as a form of transitional justice. While early lustration measures targeted political elites, late lustration policies include public and private sector positions, such as journalists, academics, business leaders, and others in ‘positions of public trust’. Given the legal controversy and moral complexity surrounding lustration, why lustrate so late in the post-communist transition and why expand the policies? The dominant explanation is that lustration is a tool of party politics and is a threat to democratic consolidation. However, the late lustration programmes do not fit this hypothesis neatly. The new laws have been restructured and packaged with other reform programmes, specifically anticorruption programmes. Late lustration has evolved to include economic and social, as well as political concerns. As such, some post-communist governments in Central and Eastern Europe appear to be trying to use lustration as a way to further the democratic transitions by addressing remaining public concerns about corruption, distrust, and inequality.     

Constraining consolidation: military politics and democracy in Pakistan (2007–2013)

Why do some militaries retain high authoritarian prerogatives during transitions from militarized authoritarian rule? The Pakistan military's 2007 extrication shows that an important part of the answer lies in the level of structural differentiation between the “military government” and the “military institution”. Despite sustained contentious opposition to military rule, the high level of separation between these two military dimensions of the state allowed the institutional military to delink itself from the discredited dictatorship and exit on its own terms. In the post-authoritarian context, the military has preserved its expansive prerogatives by using a variety of adaptive contestation mechanisms – including the mobilization of the media and the judiciary – that act as a continuing source of political instability and uncertainty.     

Explaining (and re-explaining) political change in the Middle East during the Arab Spring: trajectories of democratization and of authoritarianism in the Maghreb

After the 2011 Arab Spring, a pressing concern is to understand why some authoritarian regimes remain in power while others fall when confronted with similar difficulties. Earlier representations of the success of authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa generated common misperceptions concerning politically effective behaviour in the region. These views, shared by local autocrats and international actors alike, led them to propose ad hoc policy reorientations in response to a contagion of popular uprisings. In their turn, these policy responses directly contributed to the failure of authoritarianism and the production of democratic revolutions in several countries of the region. Such revolutionary options, although structured by the (lack of) opportunities for contestation present in each polity, are not predicable events as they depend on elite mis-assessments of the situation to be effective (as in Tunisia, Libya). Reciprocally, when reform pathways are made available by authoritarian regimes, contestation can be channelled into non-revolutionary political action (as in Morocco, Algeria).     

Political Learning as a Catalyst of Moderation: Lessons from Democratic Consolidation in Greece

Utilizing over 100 interviews conducted with Greek political and military elites, this article offers a refinement of the process of political learning, believed to contribute to democratic consolidation by modifying individuals' beliefs about political goals and the best means to achieve them. Using the Greek case as an empirical test, this study confirms the democratization literature's claim that elites learn from singular catastrophic events. It offers a refinement, however, of specific lessons and the related behavioural change. Moving beyond the main conclusions of that literature, the article argues that learning can arise in a variety of ways and from varied experiences. Inductive trial-and-error learning stimulated by success can also play a key role as can slow and cumulative learning, which results from the accumulation of both positive and negative lessons, and can proceed in a two-step process of instrumental learning first, followed by more principled learning later. Learning thus sometimes takes a tangled course: elites take tentative steps, implement small policy changes, observe the effects of their actions, and learn from them as lessons accumulate, interact and slowly reinforce each other. Finally, learning does not always guarantee moderation and the adoption of democratic attitudes, tactics, and policies. As the article illustrates, the political learning process is often best characterized as highly contingent and complex.     

In the name of king,country, and people on the Westminster model and Bhutan's constitutional transition

In 2008 Bhutan inaugurated a written constitution thereby instituting the state as a constitutional monarchy. The constitution is almost unanimously described as democratic by international media and academics. The ease with which this apparent consensus on its democratic character has been achieved, however, raises the important question of how best to approach the theory of constitutional democratization. In approaching the issue of democratization as a move towards popular control, this article discusses the ambivalence of the Bhutanese constitution towards this principle in a cultural context where social order is seen as constituted within the unity of king, country, and people. Curiously, this language is not as unique to Bhutan as one might expect, but influenced by the Westminster legacy in its emphasis on the principle of “Crown in Parliament”, its ritualization, and ideas of political inequality. It raises the question whether this model is suitable as a blueprint model for countries with different historic and cultural trajectories from the European ones? The article advocates a novel approach to the analysis of constitutional transition that transgresses the dichotomy between an institutional and linguistic approach, thus opening up interesting new insights on the waxing and waning of processes of expanding popular control.     

重评礼刑合一的法制构架

学界的主流意见认为,中华法系的主要特征在于法律与道德相融合,“诸法合体、民刑不分”,不融于源自西方的现代法治,某种程度上甚至构成现代法治追求的障碍。这种认识未能深入中华帝国法制构架形成的历史动因,从而也就难以理解和揭示帝国立法的理性方面及其所蕴含的政治智慧。从中华帝国政治使命实现的视角去审视其“礼刑合一”的法制架构,就不仅能洞见它与“三代”礼乐文化传统的契合无间,更能准确把握这一法制架构的理性特征。帝国法制架构的泛刑罚化现象根源于帝国安全的军事化政治使命的实现,具有自治性的礼制规范的创立与维护同样关涉帝国安全与秩序的稳定。这是值得现代人们珍视的古代立法智慧。传统法制之现代转型的成功则有赖于政治家和立法者之现代世界观的真正确立。