Reply to ‘The politics of evidence: a response to Rulli and D'Odorico’

ABSTRACT

Indicators of carbon storage in forests and other land uses have gained much prominence to evaluate and endorse land-based climate change mitigation policies. The outcomes of such assessments can have direct livelihood implications for dwellers living at the forest–agriculture frontier, such as shifting cultivators or subsistence farmers. This contribution critically discusses the methodological relevance of carbon stock indicators to assess long-term emission dynamics of land uses, and furthermore addresses the ‘politics of measurement’ that can be involved in policy practice. From a complex socio-ecological systems perspective, the paper argues that carbon stock indicators provide necessary but not sufficient information to endorse land use policies with mitigation aims. While they may indicate one-off sequestration gains through vegetation and land-use change, they cannot account for permanent hidden emissions that emerge as part of the broader agrarian transitions that accompany land-use change. Over the long term, this may render related mitigation interventions ineffective, if not counterproductive. Furthermore, carbon stock estimates for future land-use scenarios sometimes draw on biased assumptions, or are constructed within histories of discrimination, through which they may further marginalize subaltern groups such as shifting cultivators. A paradigm shift is needed that includes more integrative assessment approaches.     

影响女性生育二孩意愿的因素预测及女性权益保护 —— 基于马尔科夫链模型

在全面放开二孩的政策背景下,女性的生育意愿受到越来越多的关注,影响女性生育二孩意愿的因素和女性权益的保护问题,已经成为社会关注的热点。本文通过发放问卷收集数据,应用马尔科夫模型分析预测影响生育意愿的因素和选择影响生育意愿因素之间的转移概率。通过概率推测出女性身体健康为影响生育意愿的最重要因素,其次为经济因素,与以往研究相比,经济因素不再是面对生育问题时考虑的最重要因素,新时代的生育观点已经发生改变,身体健康状况和女性的权益保护备受关注。根据模型的分析结果提出:女性权益适度保护;加强顶层设计,完善二胎配套措施;大力推动诚信服务业的发展,营造环境友好型工作氛围等相关政策建议。     

Popular Attitudes toward Distributive Injustice: Beijing and Warsaw Compared

Popular reactions to the transition from centrally planned socialism to a market-based economy are explored through an examination of survey data on distributive justice and injustice attitudes in Beijing, China, in 2000, and in Warsaw, Poland, in 2001. In both capitals objective socioeconomic status characteristics of respondents have weaker and less consistent associations with distributive injustice attitudes than measures of subjective social status and self-reported trends in family standards of living. When objective and subjective respondent background characteristics are controlled for statistically, residents of democratic and enthusiastically capitalist Warsaw have stronger feelings of distributive injustice than respondents in undemocratic and only partially reformed Beijing. However, one exception to this pattern is that Beijing residents favor government redistribution to reduce income differences more than their Warsaw counterparts. Conjectures about the sources of these differences in distributive injustice attitudes are offered. Martin King Whyte is Professor of Sociology at Harvard University. His recent research focuses on changing family patterns in contemporary China, China’s distinctive economic development path, and popular attitudes toward distributive injustice issues. His recent publications include two edited volumes: China’s Revolutions and Intergenerational Relations (University of Michigan Center for Chinese Studies) and One Country, Two Societies? Rural-Urban Inequality in Contemporary China (Harvard University Press, forthcoming). Chunping Han recently completed her PhD in Sociology at Harvard, with a doctoral thesis entitled, Rural-Urban Cleavages in Perceptions of Inequality in Contemporary China.     

From Command Economy to Hollow State? Decentralisation in Vietnam and China

In Vietnam and China, decentralisation is a by‐product, both by default and design, of the transition to a state‐managed market economy. A dual process of horizontal and vertical decentralisation is occurring simultaneously in both the economic and political arena. There is an increasingly high level of de facto political/fiscal decentralisation, much of it occurring by default as local governing units try to meet rising demand for services. This is accompanied by the marketisation and socialisation of services such as education and health. Accompanying both of these processes is a trend towards greater ‘autonomisation’ of service delivery units, including the emergence of new ‘para‐state’ entities. Most of these decentralisation processes are the by‐product of marketisation, rather than part of a process of deliberate state restructuring in pursuit of ideals of decentralised government. The cumulative effects include a significant fragmentation of the state, a high potential for informalisation and corruption, and a growing set of performance accountability problems in the delivery of public services.     

A dynamic analysis of partisan voting: The issue salience effect of unemployment in South Korea

This paper examines the electoral effects of the salience of unemployment issue. While increasing employment volatility has spawned exciting research, evidence of how unemployment affects vote choice is inconclusive. I refine partisan voting theory by focusing on issue salience of unemployment and the dynamics of voter choice. Voters are more likely to make a transition to support left parties when they identify unemployment as the most important and salient issue. The study also examines voter heterogeneity in the link between issue salience and the propensity for transition to the left. The effect of issue salience of unemployment is more pronounced among lower income groups than their counterparts. Analysis of a transition model using the 1997 and 2002 Korean presidential election surveys finds evidence supporting my arguments.     

生育政策调整对我国劳动力供给规模的影响评估

全面二孩政策的实施,是中国生育政策的一次重大调整,研究该政策的实施对劳动力供给的影响具有十分重要的意义.本研究利用2010年的人口普查数据,设置全面二孩政策实施后生育水平可能的变化方案,并在此基础上对全面二孩政策的实施对我国未来劳动力供给规模的影响进行测算.研究结果表明,无论生育政策是否调整,我国未来劳动力供给都将呈现...     

东北亚的历史变局与中国的战略调整——以中日力量转移为线索

近一个半世纪以来,东北亚经历了"数千年未有之变局"。造成这一局面的原因纷繁复杂,但有一个因素十分关键,那就是发生在中日间的力量转移。历史和东北亚地缘结构均证明:作为地区主体板块,中国的强大是东北亚地区稳定的核心要素,东北亚力量中心向中国转移有助于促进东北亚安全机制的形成。但是,随着中日力量转移进入持平期,中日安全关系也将更加敏感、更加复杂,变数加大。中国必须充分把握这一趋势,塑造强国心态,构建新的身份认同,更加主动地推动地区安全与共同发展。     

Crucial relationship between the privatized sector and the generic private sector in post-communist privatization: Determinants of economic performance

This article looks at the issue — largely neglected in the transition literature — of the relative weights of the privatized sector and the generic private sector (of de novo private firms) in the emerging private sector of post-communist economies in transition. The present writer posits that the relative weight of each in the aggregate share of a private sector (generally expanding over time as transition progresses) strongly influences economic performance, both during correctional recession and during recovery and expansion period. Another, interrelated issue considered here is the interaction between the evolving institutional framework and the expansion of the generic private sector, that is the most dynamic one in the transition economy. It is true that the interaction between institutions and performance has been a staple of a very large number of books, articles, and papers.However, this article concentrates on one component of a private sector only, that is the generic private sector. But at the same time it looks beyond the ‘Holy Trinity’ of transition (stabilization, liberalization, and privatization) towards a wider institutional framework of political liberty, law and order. The foregoing wider framework, and the emerging general trust, matters as much — if not more — for the present writer as the standard transition program.It is the relative dynamics of both components of the private sector, affected by both standard transition programs and the above-mentioned wider institutional framework, that is of primary importance for the economic performance in post-communist transition. In the last part of the article I will try also to answer, tentatively, the question under which circumstances the wider institutional framework may emerge in the transition process.     

Women in Contemporary Democratization

Over the past two decades authoritarian regimes in many parts of the developing world, as well as in East/Central Europe, have been replaced by democracies. This paper looks at the issue of democratization from a gender perspective. While many of the problems afflicting the new democracies, such as the elitist character of political parties, and the failure of the state to guarantee civil and political rights or make a significant dent in poverty affect all citizens, they are manifested and experienced in gender-specific ways. Women's persistent exclusion from formal politics, in particular, raises a number of specific questions about how to reform democratic institutions since these institutions are not automatically gender-equitable.     

大陆经济转型与台商投资演变趋势——以昆山市为例

本文基于对大陆经济发展转型的内涵及空间格局的理论分析,结合对大陆台资企业的总体特点及昆山个案分析,讨论和分析大陆台资企业面临的问题及因应策略,从而力图揭示大陆台资企业的发展演变趋势。