犯罪统计:刑事政策定量研究的基础——兼评美国两大犯罪统计模式

犯罪学的发展催生了犯罪统计研究,犯罪统计的研究成果也为犯罪学的发展提供了基础资料。在美国,以UCR和NCVS为代表的两种犯罪统计模式运用不同的统计方法,为学者、政府警务部门执法提供了科学可靠的犯罪情况报告。由于犯罪统计数据的缺乏,我国刑事政策研究偏重定性分析而忽视定量研究,借鉴美国的两种犯罪统计模式经验,建立本土化的全国犯罪统计,注重定量与定性研究相结合,是使刑事政策最终走向科学化的重要基础。     

论犯罪构成论体系与罪刑法定、刑事违法性及刑诉法的关系

以往的犯罪构成论体系研究,是一种脱离犯罪构成论体系与其他重要法学范畴的关系而进行的"孤立性"研究。与罪刑法定、刑事违法性及刑诉法的关系应该构成犯罪构成论体系研究的一项重要内容。照应其与罪刑法定、刑事违法性和刑诉法的关系将使得犯罪构成论体系研究也是一种"关系式"研究,而这将丰满犯罪构成论体系,并有助于对中国大陆传统的犯罪构成论体系作出"中肯"评价和"冷静"对待。     

新冠背景下以危险方法危害公共安全罪的界限

在我国刑法典中,以危险方法危害公共安全罪存在立法留白,其罪状描述缺乏明确性.而在司法实践中,此罪的触角已进入生产非食品原料、盗窃井盖、交通肇事等领域.在2020年新型冠状病毒疫情的助推下,两高、两部联合制定了《关于依法惩治妨害新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情防控违法犯罪的意见》,将两种情形以以危险方法危害公共安全定罪处罚,明显...     

An investigation into the differentiating characteristics between car key burglars and regular burglars

Car key burglary has recently become the focus of empirical investigation as offenders, no longer able to steal vehicles without first obtaining their keys, resort to "burgling" target properties. Research surrounding the modus operandi of these offenses is beginning to emerge; however, little attention has been paid to investigating the characteristics of car key burglary offenders. Challenging the assumption that car key burglary offenses are perpetrated by regular burglars, this study aims to differentiate between offenders. Logistic regression analysis of 110 car key and 110 regular burglary offenders revealed that car key burglars are more likely to have previous vehicle theft convictions and are also more likely to be detected on information supplied to the police than regular burglars. Regular burglars are more likely to have previous shoplifting convictions. It was concluded that car key burglars are a distinct sample of offenders and the implications of these findings are discussed.     

MEASURING THE THREAT OF GLOBAL CRIME: INSIGHTS FROM RESEARCH BY THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS INTO THE TRAFFIC IN WOMEN*

Despite increasing concern about the threat of global crime, it remains difficult to measure. During the 1920s and 1930s, the League of Nations conducted the first social‐scientific study of global crime in two studies of the worldwide traffic in women. The first study included 112 cities and 28 countries; researchers carried out 6,500 interviews in 14 languages, including 5,000 with figures in the international underworld. By drawing on archival materials in Geneva and New York, this article examines the role of ethnography in developing a social‐science measure of global crime threats. The discussion covers the Rockefeller grand jury and formation of the Bureau of Social Hygiene; the League's research in Europe, the Americas, and the Mediterranean; controversy concerning the use of undercover researchers; the League's research in Asia; and the end of the Bureau. The League's experience demonstrates the promise of multisite ethnography in research about global crime as well as the difficulty of mapping crime on a global scale.     

THE ECOLOGY OF GANG TERRITORIAL BOUNDARIES*

Within any type of system, the actors in the system inevitably compete over resources. With competition comes the possibility of conflict. To minimize such effects, actors often will partition the system into geographic territories. It is against the larger ecological backdrop of competition and conflict that we examine territory formation among urban street gangs. Although previous studies have examined the social and built environment where gangs form, and how the presence of a gang influences local levels of violence, we know little about how competitive interactions are tied to the formation and maintenance of gang territories. We use formal spatial Lotka–Volterra competition models to derive hypotheses about competition‐driven territory formation. By using data on 563 between‐gang shootings, involving 13 rival street gangs in the Hollenbeck Policing Division of Los Angeles, we show that violence strongly clusters along the boundaries between gangs in a way that is quantitatively predicted by the theory. The results suggest that even weak competitive interactions between gangs are sufficient to drive gang territory formation without recourse to other processes or assumptions.     

LONG‐TERM CRIME DESISTANCE AND RECIDIVISM PATTERNS—EVIDENCE FROM THE ESSEX COUNTY CONVICTED FELON STUDY*

Two conflicting definitions of desistance exist in the criminology literature. The first definition is instantaneous desistance in which an offender simply chooses to end a criminal career instantaneously moving to a zero rate of offending ( Blumstein et al., 1986 ). The second definition views desistance as a process by which the offending rate declines steadily over time to zero or to a point close to zero ( Bushway et al., 2001 ; Laub and Sampson, 2001 ; Leblanc and Loeber, 1998 ). In this article, we capitalize on the underlying assumptions of several parametric survival distributions to gain a better understanding of which of these models best describes actual patterns of desistance. All models are examined using 18 years of follow‐up data on a cohort of felony convicts in Essex County, NJ. Our analysis leads us to three conclusions. First, some people have already desisted at the beginning of the follow‐up period, which is consistent with the notion of “instantaneous desistance.” Second, a three‐parameter model that allows for a turning point in the risk of recidivism followed by a long period of decline fits the data best. This conclusion suggests that for those offenders active at the start of the study period, the risk of recidivism is declining over time. However, we also find that a simpler two‐group model fits the data almost as well and gains superiority in the later years of follow‐up. This last point is particularly relevant as it suggests that the observed gradual decline in the hazard over time is a result of a compositional effect rather than of a pattern of individually declining hazards.     

论农村资金互助社的政府有限监管

合作金融与政府监管存在内生的冲突,农村资金互助社的独立自主性决定了政府对其监管应当是有限的。除非出于维护社会公共利益的需要而由政府对农村资金互助社进行监管,互助社的设立、管理与运行应当主要留给社员自行决定。实际上,农村资金互助社通过其自主制定的章程,依靠当地的习惯规范以及互助社自身的特有优势,可以有效地进行风险管理。因此,就农村资金互助社的监管模式改革而言,我国当前银监会的监管职能需要收缩,监管的范围要改变,同时,农村资金互助社的自我管理能力也需进一步加强,但这些均需纳入法律的框架中。     

论“因侵权而犯罪”与“因犯罪而侵权”

刑事侵权具备"刑事责任"、"侵权责任"双重责任属性,由于刑、民责任在发展进程、互动的路径及效果上的不同,可分化为"因侵权而犯罪"与"因犯罪而侵权",即刑事侵权二分论。"因侵权而犯罪"具有民事责任倾向性,"因犯罪而侵权"具有刑事责任倾向性,解决刑事侵权责任问题须兼顾侵权责任法与刑事法的正义要求。刑民二分论有坚实的法律基础,符合法律价值基础的要求,当刑事责任与侵权责任进行内容接轨与功能互补时,可在实践中实现预期的价值目标和社会效益的最大化。     

金融公正理念的法学阐释

资本扩张所导致的金融危机与两极分化,将弘扬自由与平等为主旨的金融法拖入了目标和现实相背离的现代性悖论之中。从公正理念的维度,重新审视现代金融法的价值取向与功能定位,对于缓解法的服从性与正当性之间的紧张关系,以及维护法的权威性具有重要意义。推进中国金融法制的现代化进程,须对西方的现代性范式扬善抑恶,以求实现金融自由与社会秩序的良性互动。