突发事件预警指标选择偏好与权重赋值阈值研究

调查情况表明,在可能引起各类突发事件的资源与环境安全、社会安全、政治安全、经济安全、价值观念和涉外安全6大类问题中,生态环境、社会差距、少数民族文化与宗教民族主义诉求、国有资产流失、行政执法混乱与行政行为不规范、恐怖主义、腐败、金融风险、通讯与网络安全和"三农"等问题,是中国未来10年内可能引起各类突发事件不确定性的重大因素,可能对经济社会的持续、和谐、全面发展带来一定程度的冲击,必须引起高度关注.     

Searching for historical analogies in political economy: the Baltic states and the gold standard regime

This article compares the contemporary politico-economic regime in the Baltic countries with the classical gold standard regime, which successfully functioned in the Western world from 1870 until 1914. Both the classical gold standard system and the Baltic political economies were based on a hard currency peg policy supported by a high degree of economic flexibility. Politically, this flexibility was ensured by a strong insulation of economic policy-making due to a weak political left. Furthermore, the classical gold standard system and the Baltic regimes shared an ideational consensus supporting economic liberalism in general and hard currency peg policy in particular.     

羊传染性脓疱病毒SYBR GreenⅠ实时荧光定量PCR检测方法的建立

针对羊传染性脓疱病毒(ORFV)B2L基因序列设计合成了1对引物,以含有该引物扩增序列的重组质粒作为阳性标准品,建立了检测ORFV核酸的SYBRGreenⅠreal-timePCR方法。结果显示,该方法线性关系良好,标准曲线的相关系数为0.999;检测灵敏度可达9.4×104copies/μL;与绵羊痘病毒(SPV)不发生交叉反应,具有良好的特异性;组内Ct值相同,组间变异系数小于2%。应用建立的方法检测20份疑似羊传染性脓疱病病料,结果17份为阳性,同时用常规PCR进行检测,结果仅10份为阳性。结果表明,建立的实时荧光定量PCR方法具有特异、敏感、快速、定量、重复性好等优点,可初步用于ORFV的检测。     

A Comparison of Methods for Analyzing Criminological Panel Data

We demonstrate that fixed- and random-effects models for pooled cross-sectional and time series data, and latent growth curve models for panel data are special cases of a more general model. We compare the estimates obtained from each type of model for a data set consisting of homicide rates and a vector of explanatory variables for 400 US counties over a 15-year period. Most, but not all, estimates are similar in the two models. We identify circumstances under which one approach may be advantageous to the other.

A Third Verdict Option: Exploring the Impact of the Not Proven Verdict on Mock Juror Decision Making

In most adversarial systems, jurors in criminal cases consider the binary verdict alternatives of "Guilty" and "Not guilty." However, in some circumstances and jurisdictions, a third verdict option is available: Not Proven. The Not Proven verdict essentially reflects the view that the defendant is indeed culpable, but that the prosecution has not proven its case beyond a reasonable doubt. Like a Not Guilty verdict, the Not Proven verdict results in an acquittal. The main aim of the two studies reported here was to determine how, and under what circumstances, jurors opt to use the Not Proven verdict across different case types and when the strength of the evidence varies. In both studies, jurors were more likely to choose a Not Proven verdict over a Not Guilty verdict when the alternative was available. When evidence against the defendant was only moderately strong and a Not Proven verdict option was available (Study 2), there was also a significant reduction in the conviction rate. Results also showed that understanding of the Not Proven verdict was poor, highlighting inadequacies in the nature of judicial instructions relating to this verdict.     

中西文化冲突与清末宪政模式之选择

中国传统政治文化与西方宪政文化是两种不同的价值体系,前者凸显君权主义,后者以保障人权为诉求.西方宪政文化的输人及其对清末立宪的影响,是在"中体西用"的思维定式下被纳入中国传统政治体系后才发生作用的,因此,其价值含量和基本功能无不受到贬损和扭曲.在中西不同文化相互冲突、交融和互动的形势下形成的清末宪政模式,对中国近代宪政实践产生了复杂的影响,留下了深刻教训.     

WTO有关协议对中国烟草产业发展的影响及对策建议

中国加入WTO的进程已日益加快.WTO协议中对烟草业产生重大影响的农业框架协议、贸易技术壁垒协议、反倾销协议、补贴与反补贴协议等有明确规定,对这些问题进行综合研究,提出相应对策,将为政府部门、烟草行业主管机构及烟草工商企业的走向和发展起到一定的理论参考作用.     

Rise of the temporary employment industry in Namibia: A regulatory ‘fix’

The role of the temporary employment industry as an active intermediary in the job market can only be fully understood in the context of wider processes of restructuring and regulation at a particular time and place. In Namibia, the rise of poorly regulated employment relationships occurred in a context of expanding institutional and statutory regulation of the labour market. Here the temporary employment industry thrives within the interstices left by the limits in regulatory coverage. Nonstandard jobs are premised on a selective decoupling of the employment relationship from statutory, and hence almost invariably also collective, protective measures. The mediating role of the employment agency between the client firm and the temporary labourer allows management to evade or dilute the protections that insulate permanent employees from competitive pressures in the external market. As such, temporary agency employment constitutes both a regulatory ‘fix’ for the dilemmas associated with the deployment of labour and a mechanism for the social reproduction of a nonstandard labour supply. However, the role of labour market intermediary varies depending on whether an agency is located at the top or the bottom of the temporary employment industry.     

Trajectories of Peer Social Influences as Long-term Predictors of Drug Use from Early Through Late Adolescence

The present study analyzed the long-term effects of perceived friend use and perceived peer use on adolescents’ own cigarette, alcohol and marijuana use as a series of parallel growth curves that were estimated in two developmental pieces, representing middle and high school (N = 1,040). Data were drawn from a large drug abuse prevention trial, the Midwestern Prevention Project (MPP). Results showed that both perceived peer and friend cigarette use predicted own cigarette use within and across the adolescent years. For own alcohol and marijuana use, peer and friend influences were limited primarily to middle school. The findings suggest that strategies for counteracting peer and friend influences should receive early emphasis in prevention programs that are targeted to middle school. The findings also raise the question of whether cigarette use may represent a symbol of peer group identity that is unlike other drug use, and once formed, may have lasting adverse effects through the adolescent years.

农民工劳动力供给行为的经济学分析

农民工在城市从事的都是以"生存经济"为特征的低收入工作,收入的效用对他们比较大,因而他们的无差异曲线比较平坦;农民工的技能水平低并且可支配时间被人为地缩短了,因此他们的预算线也比较平坦,由此决定了农民工的效用最大化水平相对于城市居民要低.但农民工所参照的群体是农村居民而非城市居民,因此进城打工的收入只要高于农村收入,他们就会接受这份工作.