Evidence-Informed Prevention of Civil Wars and Mass Atrocities

Abstract

The prevention discourse in all its forms has tended to ignore or at least downplay the epistemic problems with prevention. Forecasting political violence is not as easy as the debate on early warning often assumes. Effectively forestalling political violence and mass atrocities is much more difficult than the often used rhetoric of a ‘tool box’ implies, which creates the impression that one knows what works. An evidence-informed prevention policy needs to be aware of the limits of our knowledge, but at the same time knowledgeable of what social science research can provide – even if the results are provisional, often controversial and fraught with methodological problems.     

The criminal career of men convicted of rape: evidence from a Norwegian national cohort

The extent to which sexual offenders are a group separate from other types of offenders has been debated for many years and investigated from different perspectives. The present study investigated similarities and differences regarding socio-economic background, criminal history and recidivism involving new crimes between rape offenders and three other groups: other sexual offenders, non-sexual violent offenders and other offenders. Data came from Norwegian population registers containing information on all crimes investigated from 1992 to 2012. The sample consisted of all persons convicted in 2002 and 2003 (N = 36,951). Background characteristics and estimated recidivism risk was described using hazard models. Results indicated that men convicted of rape (n = 142) had lower levels of education and that a higher percentage of them were on social benefits compared to the other crime groups. A large majority (79%) of rape-convicted men had previous convictions. Rape offenders were considerably more criminally active and diverse than the other crime groups. Prior criminal record, irrespective of type, increased the risk of recidivism in general. Controlling for other background characteristics did not alter this outcome. Treatment of convicted rapists needs to take into consideration that this offender group has much in common with violent offenders in general.     

Multi-sector cooperation in preventing crime: the case of a South African Neighbourhood Watch as an effective crime prevention model

Abstract

This case study describes the experience of effective and sustainable multi-sector co-operation in the prevention of crime between the Roodekrans Neighbourhood Watch (RNW) in Roodepoort, South Africa, the South African Police Service, private security businesses and the local business sector. This case study is illustrated in the context of empowering communities to take ownership of community safety by facilitating a multi-sector approach. Many studies have highlighted the role of the police in driving crime prevention, however, this paper focuses on the role and contribution of communities themselves as an effective vehicle of crime prevention drawing on multi-sector co-operation. Knowledge regarding best practices in this field of crime prevention remains a work in progress, therefore this paper aims to contribute to the general framework for the growth of successful multi-sector community-based crime prevention initiatives.     

Temporal transaction patterns in an open-air cannabis market

This article describes the results of a nine-month covert surveillance operation of Scandinavia’s principal open-air cannabis market, an area known as Christiania in Copenhagen Denmark. The data detail the time of day of retail transactions from four different sale positions, both outdoor (daytime: n = 1.123, nighttime: n = 1.282) and indoor (n = 63,413). The analysis provides insights into the tempo, rhythm and timing of cannabis transactions, over the course of a day, on weekends compared to weekdays and in relation to payday. It is found that buyers prefer lower price over wider selection and that sellers adapt their opening hours according to temporal patterns in transaction frequency. The findings are relevant for deployment of police resources in regards to maintaining post-crackdown residual deterrence.     

Designing tools for ‘joined up’ homelessness prevention: Insights from one case study

Homelessness is a complex social problem with significant health and economic consequences. Prevention-based responses seek to reduce the number of people who go on to experience homelessness, but effective homelessness prevention is challenging to implement and can require service integration across mainstream referral organisations and specialist homelessness service agencies. The ‘At-Risk Screening Tool’ was piloted over August 2018 to March 2019 to enable such mainstream and specialist organisations to coordinate their screening and referral process in the context of homelessness prevention. The tool was used by mainstream referral agencies to assess a client's risk of homelessness, and a tailored referral pathway to a specialist homelessness agency was produced based on this assessment. This article discusses the evaluation of the pilot, exploring three key insights around service integration in a community service context. These insights emphasise the importance of embedding an awareness of staff needs and organisational constraints into the design and application of similar tools.     

马克思死刑思想研究——兼论对中国死刑改革的启示

马克思认为,在一个文明的社会裹,死刑是残暴的、不文明的、不人道的、不公正的、无效的、没有正当根据的,从而提出了在文明社会彻底废除死刑的主张。这必将封中国的死刑改革具有重大的指导性意义。     

手机短信诈骗犯罪的预防与控制——从法社会学的视角思考

犯罪是一种复杂、流变的社会现象。随着社会新兴领域研究的不断拓展,科学技术的大踏步前进,犯罪中的高科技、高技能含量正日益扩大,手机短信诈骗便是在时代发展过程中出现的一种新型的诈骗犯罪形式。只有认真研究其特点及发展规律,才能因案施策,迅速侦破此类犯罪案件,并以此把握犯罪发展的轨迹,做好防控和打击工作。     

试论社会转型及现代化治安秩序的重建

我国的社会转型和体制转轨必然导致社会失序。若要重建社会秩序,必须首先建立良好的社会治安秩序。在深化改革开放和发展社会主义市场经济的条件下,一些传统的社会治安控制手段表现出明显的滞后性,原有的运行机制和管理体制也难以适应新的需要。因此,要从根本上实现社会治安面貌的明显好转,必须趋利避害,重构中国特色的社会治安管理长效机制。     

公安信息预警与犯罪防控研究

犯罪防控的关键是掌握犯罪征兆信息,并利用对征兆信息的超前预判来实现及时预警,以有效扼制犯罪和减少犯罪危害。防控犯罪是一个复杂的系统工程,公安机关可以通过研究犯罪规律、挖掘犯罪原因、掌控犯罪重点和感知征兆信息来提高防控犯罪的效率,促进公安临战处置机制与现代警务发展模式的无缝对接。     

充分发挥基层民主自治组织在预防和阻止家庭暴力中的作用——浅谈有效预防和阻止家庭暴力制度的构建

家庭暴力由于其循环性、私密性等特征是世界各国普遍存在且难以解决的社会危害,而在我国由于反家庭暴力法律体系尚未形成,现行规定空白较多,宣传力度不够,专管不明确,维权成本过高,政府与非政府组织未形成合力等原因,使家暴问题尤为显著。为预防和阻止家庭暴力,应从改造我国现有制度,充分发挥基层民主自治组织的作用入手,加快构建有效预防和阻止家庭暴力的制度。