Full circle? Ideas and ordeals of creating a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific

Abstract

In 2004 and 2006, proposals were made at APEC summits to establish a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). This was an essentially a reworking of an idea first raised in the mid-1960s to create a Pacific Free Trade Area, or PAFTA. Although the PAFTA initiative never advanced, it helped lay the first organizational foundations for regional economic community building in the Asia-Pacific. The recent FTAAP proposal thus brings us full circle to the antecedent origins of APEC itself. If realized, an FTAAP would also create a free trade zone that would encircle the Pacific Rim economy and thereby subsume the region's now large number of bilateral and sub-regional free trade agreements (FTAs) into one unified agreement. Yet there are many inherent problems with establishing an FTAAP. These broadly relate to deconstructing the preferentialism of existing bilateral and sub-regional FTAs, achieving a consensus on the technical policy content and ideational principles on which an FTAAP would be based, and addressing various geopolitical issues such as reconciling the formation of a pan-regional Asia-Pacific FTA with an already fragile multilateral trading system. Growing interest in a ‘rival’ East Asia Free Trade Area project presents another geopolitical challenge. In considering these and other questions, it is concluded that many obstacles will remain in the path to realizing an FTAAP, and that this may not actually be a desirable objective to pursue for some time yet.     

Multilateralising regionalism: what role for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement?

Abstract

The Asia-Pacific region is home to a large and rapidly growing number of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). These agreements differ widely in design, scope and purpose. The “noodle bowl” that has resulted runs the risk of distorting investment and trade. Neither global institutions (the WTO) nor regional institutions such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping have successfully addressed these issues. Amidst this increasingly messy situation, the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement stands out for a range of important economic and political reasons, not least of which is its potential to take existing PTAs in the Asia-Pacific region in a new direction. The aim of the TPP negotiators is to produce a comprehensive, high quality, multi-party agreement to tame the tangle of PTAs and be a potential stepping stone to achieving the goal of liberalizing regional trade on a non-discriminatory basis. The economic gains from removing border barriers among the countries involved in the initial TPP negotiations are likely to be limited, however, given the small size of many of the economies and the existing PTAs among them. To date, the US has been unwilling to offer a single set of arrangements for all TPP partners, preferring to build on existing bilateral agreements. Pessimism about the immediate results from the TPP should be tempered, however, by considerations of the dynamics that it might set in train; on the other hand, it has the potential to divide the region and exacerbate China's concerns about “containment”.     

Victimage and mortification: Terrorism and its coverage in the media

This article analyzes the state of aviation security, beginning with the characteristics of the air transportation system that complicate the achievement of a high level of security. It analyzes the situation that existed prior to 9/11 and then evaluates the changes that have occurred since. It concludes that no overall systematic program has yet been put in place to deal with the threats that terrorism poses to the various elements of aviation. It also argues that aviation security, indeed homeland security, requires incorporating antiterrorism into foreign policy and ongoing attempts to deal with the underlying factors that promote terrorism.‐     

Quantitative Analysis of the DNA Distribution on Cigarette Butt Filter Paper*

The distribution of DNA on the filter paper of smoked cigarette butts was quantitatively mapped using real‐time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The filter papers from smoked cigarette butts collected from indoor and outdoor sources were sliced into equal pieces and the amount of DNA on each slice was determined. This study found that the cigarette butt filter papers sliced parallel to the seam of the cigarette had more uniformly distributed DNA on the slices and in most cases, there was enough DNA on each slice to obtain a complete DNA profile. The perpendicular slices had a less uniform pattern of distribution and some slices did not have enough DNA to obtain an interpretable DNA profile. Cigarette butts found indoors also had more DNA per cigarette on average than cigarette butts found outdoors.     

我国省域经济社会发展协调度的实际测度与空间分布研究

正确地把握经济社会发展协调度,是有效推进我国省域经济社会协调发展的前提.本文从两个维度、八个领域遴选了29项指标,建立了具有较高信度和效度的我国省域经济社会发展协调度的测度体系.采用变异系数分析法,确定各项指标的权重系数,计算得到31个省、市、自治区的经济发展度、社会发展度和经济社会综合发展度;采用离差分析法和几何平均数法,计算得到31个省、市、自治区的经济社会发展协调度.从测评结果可以得到以下启示：重点发展民生,藏富于民;调整产业结构,推进环境保护;重视科教事业和人才培养;注重宏观整合,促进区域协调.     

Free Vote Patterns in the New South Wales State Parliament

This research note examines patterns of MPs’ voting behaviour during ‘conscience’ or ‘free’ votes on three ‘morality politics’ issues in the lower house of the New South Wales state parliament in Australia: adoption rights for gay couples; scientists’ use of therapeutic cloning; and the status of the Sydney Medically Supervised Injection Centre. First, the research note reviews the literature on conscience voting and hypothesises that party will be the main predictor of voting patterns, but also establishes that previous studies have almost exclusively focused on national legislatures. Next the research note discusses methodological issues. Third, it presents the analysis of free vote patterns in the New South Wales parliament on the three ‘morality politics’ issues, along four key variables: party; sex; social ideology; and religion. The analysis of voting in the New South Wales parliament challenges existing explanations of free voting, where party is the key predictor of voting patterns. Intra-party unity figures show that party membership is a weaker predictor of voting behaviour in the two main political parties in New South Wales than in either the Australian parliament or in overseas parliaments. It is argued that at the subnational level other factors are more important in explanations of free vote patterns.     

印文墨迹分布特征及材料特性在盖印时间鉴定中的应用

通常情况下一份完整的文件有抬头、内容、落款签名或印文、落款时间等多个要素组成,文件是否真实有效,取决于与该文件有关的诸多要素。在许多案件的审理过程中,文件形成的确切时间往往是当事各方主要争议的焦点,特别是文件上印章印文的盖印时间更是最为常见的提请鉴定的问题。根据鉴定实践和实验研究,对印文墨迹分布特征及材料特性在印章印文盖印时间鉴定中的应用,及在鉴定过程中应当引起注意的相关事项进行探讨,并通过实际案例予以说明。     

Critical junctures and institution-building: regional cooperation on free trade and food security in East Asia

This study examines conditions under which states in East Asia engage in the development of regional institutions. It assumes that crucial external events and shocks, which produce specific historical breakpoints – critical junctures – constitute a significant breakpoint at which the regional states willingly elevated a path to develop regional institutions to a new level. The analysis of the development of regional institutions for a free trade area and food stock for emergency revealed that regional states in East Asia changed their views on the evolving reality created by external shocks and such changes led to the creation of new regional institutions.     

海南自由贸易港临时仲裁制度的建设研究

海南自贸港的仲裁机制应置于国际竞争中去考量。在海南自贸港中构建临时仲裁制度符合市场经济发展的规律和该制度自身发展的规律。尽管目前临时仲裁制度已在自贸区内有限开放,但临时仲裁制度在海南自贸港落地的障碍主要来自于我国仲裁机构的定位不合理,“三特定”的界限模糊,临时仲裁裁决的执行和认可缺乏规制,现有临时仲裁规则普适性的缺失。我国香港地区的临时仲裁的发展数据表明,成熟和强大的法律体系、临时仲裁的高度保密性、仲裁机构的有限介入和当事人的意思自治是该项制度迅速发展的重要原因,值得参考。海南自贸港在立法路径上可根据《立法法》对《仲裁法》第16条和第18条作出变通处理或者根据《立法法》对临时仲裁制度作出系统性的规定,并报全国人大常委会批准,应重新认识仲裁机构的促进性和服务性并高度尊重当事人的意思自治,还原临时仲裁的本质属性。     

Comparative Forensic Soil Analysis of New Jersey State Parks Using a Combination of Simple Techniques with Multivariate Statistics,

This study has shown that the combination of simple techniques with the use of multivariate statistics offers the potential for the comparative analysis of soil samples. Five samples were obtained from each of twelve state parks across New Jersey in both the summer and fall seasons. Each sample was examined using particle‐size distribution, pH analysis in both water and 1 M CaCl₂, and a loss on ignition technique. Data from each of the techniques were combined, and principal component analysis (PCA) and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) were used for multivariate data transformation. Samples from different locations could be visually differentiated from one another using these multivariate plots. Hold‐one‐out cross‐validation analysis showed error rates as low as 3.33%. Ten blind study samples were analyzed resulting in no misclassifications using Mahalanobis distance calculations and visual examinations of multivariate plots. Seasonal variation was minimal between corresponding samples, suggesting potential success in forensic applications.