The ‘Modi Wave’: Behind the Results of the 2014 General Elections in India

Narendra Modi’s spectacular victory over Congress in the 2014 Indian general elections was made possible by many factors. However, the main and overarching cause of Modi’s victory was the process which, starting in 2009 with the backing of the Indian corporate sector, built up the image of Modi as a kind of fearless and unblemished hero who, having raised his home state, Gujarat, to an extraordinary level of economic development, was now in a position to replicate the same feat at the all-India level. ‘Modi’s legend’ first conquered the middle class’ imagination and, then, was spread among the masses and, transversally, among first-time voters by that same middle class, with the help of RSS volunteers. Thus, a juggernaut was created and deployed with devastating effects, not only against Congress but, as shown by the cases of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, against some of India’s strongest regional parties.     

劳动合同内容的妥当性--《劳动合同法》第26条第1款第2项的解释适用

内容的适法性与妥当性均系劳动合同的生效要件。《劳动合同法》第26条第1款第2项应当被定位为体现劳动合同特色的妥当性要件,起到规制劳动合同内容的一般条款的作用。该项的规范功能及主要目的在于遏止用人单位在劳动合同中滥用其经济优势地位,过分压制弱势劳动者的行为。作为概括性条款,该项规定的适用应着重案例化、类型化的操作方式;在适用顺序方面,原则上应明确妥当性要件补充适用的地位;可借鉴《合同法》第52条第4项的操作模式,即在妥当性要件下引入法律、行政法规以外的低位阶规范（地方法规、部委规章等）中的强制性规定,作为确认劳动合同效力的依据。     

政治内容的生成过程

政治内容的确立并不在于它的自我宣称,而是取决于由发出、运作以及反馈等因素和环节构成的生成过程。这个问题对于政治学研究和政治运作都具有重要的现实意义。一方面,政治内容的生成同时也是一种功能实施的过程,预先设计的政治需要通过相应功能的运作和反馈才能获得、并体现出真实的或具体的内容含义;另一方面,功能实施需要相应的载体形式,不同载体承担着不同的职能或功能,并由相应的功能关系维系着政治的一般或常态运作机制。在政治内容生成的过程中,各种转换的主要根据都在于相应的实效反馈,也就是发出预设与运作效果的相互作用;然而从普遍性来讲,各种实效反馈对于政治内容生成的作用根据或运作机制,都在于专门政治与一般政治的转化。     

Do party leadership contests forecast British general elections?

When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lead time (distance to event). Curiously, in both 2010 and 2015 the most accurate forecasts came from models having the longest lead time—albeit at most 12 months. Can we increase the lead time further, supposing we tolerate a small decrease in accuracy? Here, we develop a model with a lead time of more than 3 years. Our Party Leadership Model relies on the votes of MPs when selecting their party leader. We assess the forecasting quality of our model with both leave-one-out cross-validation and a before-the-fact forecast of the 2019 general election. Compared to both simple forecasting methods and other scientific forecasts, our model emerges as a leading contender. This result suggests that election forecasting may benefit from developing models with longer lead times, and that party leaders may influence election outcomes more than is usually thought.     

检察监督与政府权力

权力需要监督,否则就有可能变为暴力.这是一个政治学或者法学的常识,对于政府权力而言,也不能例外.因此,我国宪法奠定了人民检察院国家法律监督机关的地位,有权行使法律监督权.对我国检察机关的检察监督法律关系的定位,经历了一段长时问的沿革过程.从借鉴前苏联的一般监督权,到对其废除,确实有其历史和现实必然性.检察监督权存在与否及其内容和范围如何,也是与现实的要求分不开的,在我国形势已经发生重大变革,对检察机关的一般监督权进行合理调整和适用,以适应对不断膨胀的政府权力监督的要求,巳经成为必要.＃     

常识、常理在司法中的运用

正确理解常识和常理,对司法裁判具有重大意义。常识和常理属于人们的的经验性知识,具有前理性、非系统性、经验性、大众性乃至客观性等特征。在司法中,常识和常理是法官认识案情、解释法律、展开逻辑推理的前提和基础。法官可以运用常识、常理认定案件事实,检验和校正法律推理。常识和常理还是法官进行法律论证的资源之一。但是,不能过于夸大常识和常理在司法中的作用。     

船舶留置权法律制度的特殊性

对船舶留置权、以船舶为客体的留置权和一般留置权的法律定义进行比较,分析船舶留置权所担保的债权合同、被占有船舶的权属、受偿顺序以及实现方式等特殊内容,指出完全以一般留置权的法律规定适用于船舶留置权,无法公平有效地解决船舶留置权在实践中遇到的各种问题,《中华人民共和国海商法》有必要另行规定船舶留置权法律制度,以维护相关各方的合法权益。     

中国行政学院办学模式及创新发展研究——基于七所省、市级行政学院的调查和思考

全国行政学院锐意进取,进行了全方位、整体性办学模式和制度机制创新,已成为公务员培训的主渠道和主阵地。行政学院的改革和发展与国家公务员培训体制及相关政策直接联系。要进一步创新行政学院办学模式,须从制度的层面化解学习目标偏离问题,以改革的思路优化整组培训机构体系,实事求是地解决培训教育与学历教育的矛盾,用统筹方法处理教职工两种人事制度管理问题,创新并完善具有行政学院特色的培训考核评估体系。     

Money laundering in a two-sector model: using theory for measurement

This paper implements a methodology that exploits firms and households’ optimality conditions to measure money laundering for the Italian economy. This approach, first implemented by Ingram et al. (J Monet Econ 40:435–436, 1997) to the household production sector, and by Busato et al. (Using theory for measurement: an analysis of the behaviour of underground economy working paper, Aarhus University, 2006) for measuring the underground economy, allows to generate high frequency time-series for money laundering using a theoretical two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated over the sample 1981:01–2001:04. The analysis of the generated series suggests two main results. First, money laundering accounts for approximately 12 percent of aggregate GDP; second, money laundering is more volatile than aggregate GDP and it is negatively correlated with it.

一般债权作为质押标的可操作性的探讨

一般债权作为质押标的有其存在合理性和合法性,且允许转让.其条件是设定质押的债权必须具有可转让性;必须通知原债务人.为主债权清偿期已到,入质债权清偿期未至时,质权人只能首先向其债务人要求清偿.质权的行使仍需等到作为质押标的的一般债权届满方可.第三债权人可直接向第三债务人要求偿债,按物权优于债权原则,质权应首先得到实现.