Tremors but no Youthquake: Measuring changes in the age and turnout gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British general elections

In the aftermath of the 2017 UK General Election, some claimed that Labour performed unexpectedly well because of a surge in youth turnout. Polling estimates for the size of this ‘youthquake’ ranged from 12 to 21 points amongst 18–24 year olds. Using conventional and Bayesian statistical methods, we analyse British Election Study and British Social Attitudes random probability surveys and find no evidence of a shift in the relationship between age and turnout of this scale. Using the pooled BES and BSA reported turnout data with an informative prior that there was a modest increase in 18–24 turnout (N{6, 3}), our 95% credible interval for that change is between 0.9 and 8.8 points. Even with a strong youthquake prior (N{15.5, 3.5}), our data suggest that there is only a 4% probability that the change in turnout amongst 18–24 years olds was 12 points or higher.     

Local labour market competition and radical right voting: Evidence from France

How do the economic effects of immigration affect radical right support? The evidence in support of the labour market competition theory — which posits that the economic threat posed by immigration to jobs and wages leads to radical right voting — has been mixed. On the one hand, individual-level surveys underreport economic drivers because of social desirability bias. On the other hand, contextual studies show contradictory findings due to an over-reliance on units of analysis that are too aggregated to meaningfully capture the competitive threat posed by immigrants. This paper identifies the influence of labour market competition on radical right voting at a local level in contexts where native workers are directly affected by the arrival of immigrants who have similar or higher skillsets. Using an original longitudinal dataset of fine-grained municipal electoral, demographic and economic data from France over the 2002–2017 period, the paper provides empirical evidence of local contextual influences of economic competition between natives and immigrants of any skillset. Under local conditions of material deprivation, measured by the local unemployment rate, the effect of labour market competition on municipalities’ radical right vote share is amplified. Moreover, higher radical right support is observed in municipalities with a higher share of any one of the following groups: low-skilled natives, medium-skilled immigrants or high-skilled immigrants. This supports the hypothesis that immigrants with higher qualifications are compelled to accept lower-skilled jobs, and are thus perceived as a competitive threat to low-skilled natives. By reconciling radical right contextual studies and research on the political economy of immigration policies, this paper highlights the importance of a local analysis in detecting the effect of labour market competition on radical right support. This paper also explains why some local areas are more prone to radical right support than others over time.     

行为四分法之初探——兼反思我国犯罪构成模式

我国刑法理论中危害行为和实行行为概念中存在着问题,从司法实践的犯罪评价过程着手,刑法中应有四个居于犯罪论体系不同位置,具有不同属性的行为,并对其性质进行了分析,理清了它们之间的关系,同时也从行为视角反思了我国犯罪构成体系形成的原因及存在的问题。     

英语中的歧义问题

语言的歧义问题是一个自然现象,这是由于思维方式、文化背景的不问造成的。但语言的歧义问题是可以通过语境来消 除的。     

中国特色工会维权观的科学性

中国特色社会主义工会维权观的提出，是中国工会理论的一大创新，标志着工会维权已经步入理性、规范、法制化的轨道。坚持中国特色社会主义工会维权观，是树立和落实科学发展观的重要体现；是对以往维权理论和实践系统化的凝聚与升华；是适应新形势新任务的客观需要；是与工会宗旨的高度统一；是工会维权机制、方式、方法走向科学化的标志。     

浅析商务英语的教学要点

搞好商务英语教学应该从学习者的需要分析、学习动机、教学大纲设计、教学方法四要素入手,同时也要注意这四要素与普通英语的区别。     

阶层分化视域的马克思主义大众化

社会阶层分化对马克思主义大众化带来了严峻挑战。主要表现在各阶层经济差距与马克思主义目标导向的反差,不同阶层政治参与差异与马克思主义民主价值的背离,阶层之间的矛盾与以马克思主义为指导的社会主义和谐社会理论的碰撞等方面。在阶层分化情况下实现马克思主义大众化需要从四个方面入手：一是坚持马克思主义与时俱进的理论品质,不断实现理论创新;二是坚持中国共产党在马克思主义大众化过程中的主导地位;三是运用阶层分析法,实现马克思主义在各阶层的通俗化,增强马克思主义大众化的针对性;四是抓住构建社会主义和谐社会的历史契机,将解决社会民生问题作为实现马克思主义大众化的突破口。     

关于如何看待债法总则对各具体债适用的问题

关于债法总则设立的问题,需要考虑的是其对包括合同在内的各种债的关系的可适用性,然而债法总则只是为各种债提供一套备用的规范体系,我们不宜苛求债法总则的所有规范对各种债都完全适用,即便是合同之债,债法总则的许多规范也不是完全适用的,以债法总则对合同以外的债不完全适用为由而否定其实际效用和存在价值,理由是不能成立的,态度也是不可取的。     

禁止权利滥用的法理分析

禁止权利滥用是在法权观念的变迁过程中 ,由观念发展到判例 ,再发展到成文法上的一项基本原则的 ;禁止权利滥用原则负载了“社会本位”权利观的价值 ,在民法上成为一般条款 ,是指导、评价民事主体正当行使权利、立法以及法律解释和补充的准则 ,也是赋予司法裁量权的依据。基于禁止权利滥用原则是权利社会性的要求 ,因此 ,权利滥用者对其行为应承担不利的法律后果。     

潘得克吞法学中的行为与法律行为理论——民法典总则诞生的序曲

法律行为理论体系是潘得克吞法学的产物。早期潘得克吞法学中的法律行为理论栖身于行为理论体系之中,萨维尼、普赫塔、温德夏等人的研究成果使法律行为理论走向系统化、精细化。法律行为理论的观念史背景是古典自然法学,方法论基础是以形式逻辑为核心的“科学”方法。法律行为理论的勃兴促成了现代民法典总则的诞生,其价值不可低估。