货币错配与全球失衡

经常项目均衡可视作前瞻性的投资者储蓄与投资最优决策的结果.经常项目大幅的逆差或顺差本身并不必然意味着不稳定,但是,如果国际投资者不再愿意在其投资组合中继续增加逆差国的风险暴露,则该国的储蓄与投资行为就必须调整,使其经常项目头寸与可得融资相一致.分析表明,现存的货币错配与全球失衡难以持续,最终需进行有序调整.     

Envisaging the future — scenarios and public affairs practice

Public affairs in the third millennium will develop in three significant ways.

• (1) It will deal increasingly with global issues and authorities. ‘The chief executive needs to be an entrepreneur with global vision. He needs political skills, to steer a course through the regulatory maze.’
• (2) The companies that succeed may be global, but many of the regimes of regulation and control will remain national. The ability to deal with them will be essential.
• (3) Public affairs will have to deal effectively not only with national and international regimes but also with organised ‘civil society’. NGOs have now formed global alliances. They are recognised and consulted formally and informally and have begun to ‘show their teeth’.

These developments create strong and specific challenges for corporate communications. ‘Sovereignty is what you belong to.’ The European Union (EU) has developed as a model for global public affairs. Companies that have learnt to combine national with supranational public affairs in the EU will be well equipped in the fora of WTO, OECD, ILO and others yet to come. The communications challenges are two:

• (1) Support for mergers: As globalisation proceeds by merger, companies will need fluency in communicating the benefits of mergers, both internally and externally.
• (2) Trading identities: As countries go for national brands to achieve tourism and investment, mega‐merged global companies are using nation‐building techniques to achieve internal cohesion across cultures.

Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications     

Service Sector Productivity: B2B Electronic Commerce as a Strategic Driver

Information technology, and especially the Internet, are exerting an increasingly large and broad influence on industrial structures and measurement and evaluation of such fundamental concepts as risk, the value and benefits of intangibles such as intellectual capital, brand-related goodwill, and service sector productivity. Identifying the key value-adding factors underpinning productivity in the service sector has always been a significant challenge but with the advent of the WWW and the broad diffusion of Internet-enabled technologies and transacting modalities such as electronic commerce, this challenge has become even harder. In this paper, we compile a number of empirical case studies from industry where the use of electronic commerce has served as a strategic differentiator in pushing the service productivity envelop and in maximizing customer value added. Specifically, we examine the impact of electronic commerce on the process and petroleum industries. We profile in detail the role of electronic commerce as a strategy-enabling, infrastructural, path-breaking and general-purpose technology that if properly leveraged, can lead to radical improvements in both quality and productivity in services, thus helping re-define and re-shape the core structure and relationships in the industries it impacts. We end by identifying best practices in deploying electronic commerce as a strategic agent of change within and across firms and industries in the pursuit of increasingly higher levels of service sector productivity and quality.     

The Public Sector Reform Movement: Mapping the Global Policy Network

Public sector reform in both developed and developing countries has now become a routine matter of public policy—reform is almost continuous, if not always successful. While the role of international transfer agents such as the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in promoting reforms has often been noted, there has been no comprehensive mapping of the global network on public sector reform. This article makes a first attempt to map the close to 100 organizations that make up a loose global network around public administration and governance. It then provides a brief history of the evolution of the network, and the key events that encouraged a substantial degree of coherence among its members. It examines the practices and tools that are specific to this global public policy network, and concludes with some observations on policy transfer models. The article shows that in trying to understand the dynamics of public administration reform, we need to pay greater attention to this network, its members, and its influence over national policy priorities.     

From rule-taker to rule-promoting regulatory state: South Korea in the nearly-global competition regime

When rapid economic growth catapults a country within a few years from the margins of the global economy to middle power status, does global regulatory governance need to brace for a challenge to the status quo? To answer this question, we extend the power transition theory of global economic governance to middle powers: A rising middle power should be expected to challenge the international regulatory status quo only if increasing issue-specific strength of its regulatory state coincides with preferences that diverge from the preferences of the established powers, which are enshrined in the status quo. We examine this argument empirically, focusing on South Korea in the realm of competition law and policy. We find that South Korea, a non-participant in the international competition regime until the 1980s, developed in the 1990s substantial regulatory capacity and capability and thus “spoiler potential.” At the same time, however, its policy preferences converged upon the norms and practices established by the United States and the European Union, albeit with some distinct elements. Under these conditions, we expect a transition from rule-taker to rule-promoter. We find that South Korea has indeed in recent years begun to actively promote well-established competition law and policy norms and practices – supplemented by its distinct elements – through technical assistance programs, as well as various bilateral channels and multilateral institutions. The findings suggest that the power transition theory of global economic governance is usefully applicable to middle powers, too.     

Grounding transnational business governance: A political-strategic perspective on government responses in the Global South

Recent scholarship on transnational business governance has begun to examine public-private interactions and the active role of governments. We make two key contributions that integrate and expand this literature. First, in juxtaposition to functionalist accounts, we foreground the fundamentally political and often contentious character of these interactions. As private transnational governance schemes and standards “hit the ground,” private-public interactions, we argue, are embedded in national political arenas and tied to domestic distributional struggles among competing regulatory coalitions. Building upon multiple empirical streams of research, we develop a political-strategic framework that maps the diversity of Southern government responses (substitute, adopt, repurpose, replace, or reject) to transnational private governance. Our framework shows that government responses are a function of both strategic fit with domestic industrial capabilities and structures, and strength of developmental state capacity. Second, our proposed framework adopts the vantage point of Global South governments and industries, particularly how development challenges and strategic options within global value chains affect their understanding of, and responses to, transnational schemes and standards. This is an important corrective to a Northern bias in the private governance literature.     

2030年全球战略预测

未来20年世界发展演进中将不会出现过往20年间较为典型的剧变和震荡。美国将在创新、金融和军事领域保持全球领导者的地位。中国地位的加强将最大程度地影响到全球权力均衡。以市场经济和民主为基础的全球化意识形态将维持其世界主导思想体系的地位。意识形态将更频繁地与全球的政治、社会经济和文化发展趋势相关联。这将成为未来全球治理意识形态的基础。在2030年前,世界文化体系以及各种文化内核发生大规模变化的可能性极小,同时很难形成创新文化和生产文化占主导地位的全球文化。全球治理的机制和原则将继续形成。世界经济发展的主要动力为创新和全球化。全球化在未来20年将继续推动世界经济的增长。但在预测期的前半段,将始终可以感觉到世界金融经济危机的影响。限制增长的主要因素来自于新的世界经济金融危机以及保护主义的抬头。2011-2030年,世界经济年均增速将达到4.0%到4.5%。中国接近中等发达国家水平并拥有较高的社会经济发展速度是2030年前的主要变化。发达国家和发展中国家的传统划分将发生改变。增长质量和竞争力标准将决定一国在世界经济版图中的地位。中国在GDP规模上至少会接近美国的水平,但GDP中的创新成分及其他质量型的成分方面仍将落后于...     

论全球环境立法趋同化的根源及现实表征

当前由于国际环境合作交流的日益加强，各国间相互吸收他国环境保护立法成功经验的趋势日益彰显．全球环境立法从而进一步表现出明显的趋同化态势。这种现象有着深刻思想和文化根源，也是传统法对环境保护之不足的反作用的结果。可以预见，全球环境立法的趋同化已经成为当前世界各国环境立法发展的一种基本趋势和运行常态。