Is the Nexus of Gang Membership,Exposure to Violence,and Violent Behavior a Key Determinant of First Time Gun Carrying for Urban Minority Youth?

Two waves of longitudinal data from a high-poverty sample of minority youth living in extreme poverty was used to determine if the nexus (or intersection) of gang membership T1, exposure to violence T1, and violent behavior T1 is a precursor of first time gun carrying T2. The findings indicated a significant amount of overlap between gang membership, exposure to violence, and violent behavior. The multivariate findings also revealed that: (1) the effect of exposure to violence T1 on initiation of gun carrying T2 became non-significant after controlling for gang membership T1 and violent behavior T1; and (2) only 1.8% of youth were part of the nexus of gang membership T1, exposure to violence T1, and violent behavior T1, but they were 665% more likely to initiate gun carrying T2. The theoretical and policy implications of the findings for the prevention of youth gun violence as well as areas for future research are also discussed.     

An atypical gunshot wound from a home-made zip gun--the value of a thorough scene investigation

Zip guns and the atypical gunshot wounds they produce are rare in forensic pathology. Because of this, investigators and forensic pathologists may be unfamiliar with their construction, appearance, and the wounds associated with them. A 43-year-old mechanic, with a history of depression was found dead in a washroom stall at work with an atypical gunshot wound of the head. Upon initial investigation, no weapon was found at the scene. Due to the nature of the scene, and the unusual characteristics of the wound, the manner of death was at first thought to be a homicide. Subsequently, a simple zip gun, which had been overlooked during the scene investigation, was discovered by a co-worker while he was cleaning the stall. Examination of the wound revealed evidence of contact range firing. A markedly deformed bullet was recovered from the head, consistent with the use of the home-made gun. These findings, along with further police investigation and review of the past medical history, indicated that the manner of death was a suicide.     

THE SHORT‐TERM EFFECTS OF EXECUTIONS ON HOMICIDES: DETERRENCE,DISPLACEMENT, OR BOTH?*

Does the death penalty save lives? In recent years, a new round of research has been using annual time‐series panel data from the 50 U.S. states for 25 or so years from the 1970s to the late 1990s that claims to find many lives saved through reductions in subsequent homicide rates after executions. This research, in turn, has produced a round of critiques, which concludes that these findings are not robust enough to model even small changes in specifications that yield dramatically different results. A principal reason for this sensitivity of the findings is that few state‐years exist (about 1 percent of all state‐years) in which six or more executions have occurred. To provide a different perspective, we focus on Texas, a state that has used the death penalty with sufficient frequency to make possible relatively stable estimates of the homicide response to executions. In addition, we narrow the observation intervals for recording executions and homicides from the annual calendar year to monthly intervals. Based on time‐series analyses and independent‐validation tests, our best‐fitting model shows that, from January 1994 through December 2005, evidence exists of modest, short‐term reductions in homicides in Texas in the first and fourth months that follow an execution—about 2.5 fewer homicides total. Another model suggests, however, that in addition to homicide reductions, some displacement of homicides may be possible from one month to another in the months after an execution, which reduces the total reduction in homicides after an execution to about .5 during a 12‐month period. Implications for additional research and the need for future analysis and replication are discussed.     

枪击案件中射击残留物提取方法的探讨

目的结合现场勘查提取和实验研究,探讨了几种提取射击残留物的不同方法。方法采用富集浓缩、颗粒收集等方法。结果运用上述方法提取了附着在玻璃、汽车、塑料和织物上弹孔周围的射击残留物。结论收到良好的效果,大大提高了射击残留物提取率和检出率。     

Stubs Versus Swabs? A Comparison of Gunshot Residue Collection Techniques

Abstract: The collection efficiency of two widely used gunshot residue (GSR) collection techniques—carbon‐coated adhesive stubs and alcohol swabs—has been compared by counting the number of characteristic GSR particles collected from the firing hand of a shooter after firing one round. Samples were analyzed with both scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X‐rays by an experienced GSR analyst, and the number of particles on each sample containing Pb, Ba, and Sb counted. The adhesive stubs showed a greater collection efficiency as all 24 samples gave positive results for GSR particles whereas the swabs gave only positive results for half of the 24 samples. Results showed a statistically significant collection efficiency for the stub collection method and likely reasons for this are considered.     

Victim resistance and offender weapon effects in robbery

What happens when victims resist robbers? Logistic regression analysis of over 4500 sample robbery incidents reported in the 1979–1985 National Crime Surveys reveals the following about various forms of victim resistance. Self-protection (SP) of any kind apparently reduces the probability of the robbery being completed, i.e., the robber getting away with the victim's property. Armed resistance is more effective than unarmed resistance, and resistance with a gun, though relatively rare, is the most effective victim response of all. Resistance with a gun also appears to reduce the likelihood of the victim being injured, while two types of resistance appear to increase it: (1) unarmed physical force against the robber and (2) trying to get help, attract attention, or scare the robber away. The robber's possession of a gun appears to inhibit victim resistance, which can sometimes provoke a robber to attack; robber gun possession thereby reduces the probability of victim injury. However, even controlling for victim resistance, robber gun possession, is associated with a lower rate of injury to the victim. Finally, robbers with handguns are much more likely to complete their robberies, and those with knives and other weapons are somewhat more likely to do so, compared to unarmed robbers.     

Defensive Gun Uses: New Evidence from a National Survey

The number of civilian defensive gun uses (DGUs) against criminal attackers is regularly invoked in public policy debates as a benefit of widespread private ownership of firearms. Yet there is considerable uncertainty for the prevalence of civilian DGUs, with estimates ranging from 108,000 (using the National Crime Victimization Survey) to 2.5 million (using smaller telephone surveys) per year. In this paper we analyze the results of a new national random-digit-dial telephone survey to estimate the prevalence of DGU and then discuss the plausibility of the results in light of other well-known facts and possible sources of bias in survey data for sensitive behaviors. Because DGU is a relatively rare event by any measure, a small proportion of respondents who falsely report a gun use can produce substantial overestimates of the prevalence of DGU, even if every true defensive gun user conceals his or her use. We find that estimates from this new survey are apparently subject to a large positive bias, which calls into question the accuracy of DGU estimates based on data from general-population surveys. Our analysis also suggests that available survey data are not able to determine whether reported DGU incidents, even if true, add to or detract from public health and safety.     

The Gender Gap among Teen Survey Respondents: Why are Boys more Likely to Report a Gun in the Home than Girls?

It is a reliable though unexplained feature of national surveys that include items on gun ownership that wives are less likely to report a gun in the home than husbands. In this article we extend the inquiry regarding this gender gap in reporting of household guns to include adolescent children (age 12–17 years). The California Health Interview Survey of 2001, the largest-ever state survey of its kind, includes over 4000 marital households in which both a parent and adolescent child were interviewed and asked whether there was a gun in the home. There is little “age gap” in reporting—California teens are almost as likely to say that there is a gun as are their parents—but there is a gender gap among both the teens and their parents. We also find a large gap in personal experience with guns—boys are three times as likely to report hunting or shooting with a family member than girls. This difference in experience fully accounts for the gender gap in reporting. The relevance of these findings for the interpretation of survey data is clear. Whether there is a gun reported in a home depends to a remarkable extent on which member of the household is asked the question. Hence, the method of selection of respondent(s) from within a household will affect estimates of the patterns and prevalence of gun ownership, and, potentially, the accuracy of case–control studies that use self-report information about guns in the home.

The “war on cops,” retaliatory violence,and the murder of George Floyd*

The police murder of George Floyd sparked nationwide protests in the summer of 2020 and revived claims that public outcry over such high-profile police killings perpetuated a violent “war on cops.” Using data collected by the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) on firearm assaults of U.S. police officers, we use Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) modeling to empirically assess if and how patterns of firearm assault on police officers in the United States were influenced by the police murder of George Floyd. Our analysis finds that the murder of George Floyd was associated with a 3-week spike in firearm assaults on police, after which the trend in firearms assaults dropped to levels only slightly above that which were predicted by pre-Floyd data. We discuss potential explanations for these findings and consider their relevance to the contemporary discussion of a “war on cops,” violence, and officer safety.