TRANSITORY MOBILITY,CULTURAL HETEROGENEITY,AND VICTIMIZATION RISK AMONG YOUNG MEN OF COLOR: INSIGHTS FROM AN ETHNOGRAPHIC STUDY IN CAPE TOWN,SOUTH AFRICA

The coupling of racial and economic stratification has been found to result in a range of adverse outcomes for youth of color, including disproportionate exposure to violence and victimization. Primary explanations of these patterns, particularly at the micro‐level, have focused on the impact of street culture. In this article, we draw from a multiyear ethnography in Cape Town, South Africa, to offer a theoretical elaboration of the place of culture in contributing to victimization risks among urban minority young men. The study is based on data collected from a sample of 26 young men of color who lived on the Cape Flats between 2003 and 2006. Using grounded theory methods, we suggest the import of unequal access to spatial mobility as a multifaceted means by which culture mediates young men's risks for victimization in disadvantaged communities. We find that transitory mobility—conceptualized as youth's temporary access to cultural spaces outside their segregated residential neighborhoods—is an important source of cultural heterogeneity in townships that can intensify the strength of local social identities and outgroup antipathies directed at those whose mobility is perceived as a cultural threat. Transitorily mobile young men's cultural repertoires are a key facet of street efficacy that can either insulate them from risk or heighten their vulnerabilities. Our findings are suggestive of important sources of variation in young men's victimization outcomes in disadvantaged communities, offering insights about factors that shape risks beyond those linked to the victim–offender overlap in high‐risk settings.     

Eastward Enlargement of the European Union and the Identity of Europe

The constitution of a European demos with a collective identity is one of the preconditions for adjusting the legitimacy problem of the European Union (EU). The analysis attempts to clarify empirically whether there is sufficient commonality regarding Europeans' political value orientations to substantiate a collective identity. Particularly in view of the European Union's eastward enlargement, the question arises whether widespread cultural heterogeneity in Europe allows the formation of a European demos at all. In Europe we can identify a West-East axis of political value orientations. Democratic attitudes decrease the further to the East while at the same time there is an increase in etatist orientations. Thresholds can be observed which distinguish Western European countries on the one hand and Central and Eastern European countries on the other. Within the group of Central and Eastern Europe a further distinction can be made between the three Slavic republics of the former Soviet Union and the rest of the countries. These findings support Huntington's theory of civilisations.     

Diversity,identity, and the indeterminacy of the size of nations

Recently economists have explored the impact of ethnic and social diversity on nation size and on the relative efficacy of the production of private and public goods. In a neoclassical framework with perfect and complete information, diversity increases the costs of government, and both the size of government and of the nation are limited. The paper proposes an alternative evolutionary framework building on the economics of identity. With imperfect and incomplete information, the relation between nation size and diversity is indeterminate, because heterogeneity plays an important role for the coordination among actors, and because political organization is crucial for the endogenous formation of preferences.      

The Battle for Baghdad: Testing Hypotheses About Insurgency From Risk Heterogeneity,Repeat Victimization,and Denial Policing Approaches

The Iraqi Insurgency (2003–2011) has commonly been characterized as demonstrating the tendency for violence to cluster and diffuse at the local level. Recent research has demonstrated that insurgent attacks in Iraq cluster in time and space in a manner similar to that observed for the spread of a disease. The current study employs a variety of approaches common to the scientific study of criminal activities to advance our understanding of the correlates of observed patterns of the incidence and contagion of insurgent attacks. We hypothesize that the precise patterns will vary from one place to another, but that more attacks will occur in areas that are heavily populated, where coalition forces are active, and along road networks. To test these hypotheses, we use a fishnet to build a geographical model of Baghdad that disaggregates the city into more than 3000 grid cell locations. A number of logistic regression models with spatial and temporal lags are employed to explore patterns of local escalation and diffusion. These models demonstrate the validity of arguments under each of three models but suggest, overall, that risk heterogeneity arguments provide the most compelling and consistent account of the location of insurgency. In particular, the results demonstrate that violence is most likely at locations with greater population levels, higher density of roads, and military garrisons.     

都市社会语境下法治认同模式的构想

城镇化进程的全面启动与依法治国战略的全面推进使得都市社会中的法治认同成为一个重要论题。一方面,都市社会的发展消解了传统法治认同模式赖以存立的共同体,另一方面都市化的进程又塑造了一种新型的社会关系并具有独特的精神气质,进而构成了一种新型的共同体——媒介型共同体。媒介型共同体以异质性的不断生成为其正当性基础,以多重空间分配与构造为其基本特征,并且超越传统的依托于民族国家的共同体模式,形成了一种依托于都市和全球的新型共同体。都市社会中的法治认同要求利他主义的都市法律主体,立基于"都市—全球"的互动结构,以空间分配促进都市法律主体对于都市法治的认同,最终指向都市法治的实现。     

FAMILY DISPUTE RESOLUTION: CHARTING A COURSE FOR THE FUTURE

This article summarizes ideas for future directions in the field of family dispute resolution, as discussed by legal experts, social scientists, and other participants at the Indiana University–Bloomington conference on family dispute resolution. Five major categories of future directions were discussed: (1) clarifying differing goals for work in this field; (2) recognizing, understanding, and assessing for heterogeneity among couples and families facing divorces, break ups in adult relationships, and reconfigurations of adult relationships with the children ("relationship dissolution"); (3) testing our assumptions and commonly held beliefs about relationship dissolution; (4) empirically testing the efficacy of interventions for families experiencing relationship dissolution; and (5) disseminating research findings to those on the frontline.     

INTERGROUP AND INTRAGROUP VIOLENCE: IS VIOLENT CRIME AN EXPRESSION OF GROUP CONFLICT OR SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION?*

The impact of residential turnover and compositional change at the neighborhood level on local patterns of crime lies at the center of most ecological studies of crime and violence. Of particular interest is how racial and ethnic change impacts intragroup and intergroup crime. Although many studies have examined this effect using city‐level data, few have evaluated it using neighborhood‐level data. Using incident‐level data for the South Bureau Policing Area of the Los Angeles Police Department aggregated to census tracts, we use a novel methodology to construct intragroup and intergroup rates of robbery and assaults. The South Bureau has experienced dramatic demographic change as it has transitioned from a predominately African‐American area to a predominately Latino area. We find support for the social disorganization model, as racial/ethnic transition in nearby tracts leads to greater levels of intergroup violence by both groups as well as to more intragroup violence by Latinos. Such neighborhoods seem to experience a breakdown in norms, which leads to higher levels of violence in all forms. Particularly noteworthy is that intragroup crime is highest in all settings, which includes the most heterogeneous tracts. We also find support for the consolidated inequality theory, as greater inequality across the two groups leads to more violence by the disadvantaged group.     

Investigating Life Course Offender Subgroup Heterogeneity: An Exploratory Latent Class Analysis Approach

Within developmental criminology, a common classification of offender behavior is life course trajectories broken into discrete groups of early onseters, late onseters, persisters, or desisters. Yet some investigators state that this is an oversimplification of offending behavior and may not be applicable to females and males. The current study utilizes National Youth Survey data and exploratory latent class analysis to determine whether substantive latent classes exist within offender life course trajectories for females and males and to examine differences between the genders across these groups. The analyses reveal the presence of 4 types of latent subgroups: (a) female-majority de-escalators, (b) male-majority persistent de-escalators, (c) male-dominated persisters, and (d) male-majority chronic fluctuators. Post hoc analyses reveal similarities and differences among the latent groups. Research implications of this study suggest further explorations into whether strict 2-pronged developmental models are indeed appropriately tapping and capturing the full essence of criminal careers for both females and males. The results suggest that continued programming that disrupts delinquent peer associations and reduces consumption of drugs and/or alcohol may be promising in promoting desistance—particularly for females.     

Holding governments accountable? Individual heterogeneity in performance voting

This study suggests that performance voting is characterised by extensive individual heterogeneity. Most economic voting studies to date treat voters as rather homogeneous in their reactions to economic performance of incumbents. Yet, a large and well‐established line of research from the American context demonstrates the conditional impact of political sophistication and salience on voters' political attitudes and behaviour. Building on this work, this article explores individual‐level variation in performance voting due to political sophistication and salience. Utilising cross‐national data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) including 25 democracies, performance voting is examined across an array of policy areas including the economy, social welfare, immigration and national security, and it is shown that political sophistication and salience are key moderators of performance voting. The findings suggest that holding governments to account for past performance is mainly the prerogative of the highly sophisticated and thus may be more laborious than previously assumed. At the same time, the results indicate that the sophistication gap in performance voting narrows when voters attach a higher degree of salience to a policy area. As long as voters care enough about government activities in a particular policy area, incumbents can expect credit or blame for policy outcomes. This should provide at least some impetus for responsive policy making.     

Predicting pretrial misconduct with drug tests of arrestees: Evidence from eight settings

Identifying defendants at high risk of pretrial misconduct is a major problem for the judiciary. Currently, some have argued that testing arrestees for recent drug use is one way to distinguish between those who will and those who will not commit pretrial misconduct. The research reported here questions whether the incremental predictive power resulting from drug testing always improves predictions of pretrial misconduct. Using survival analysis to study time until rearrest and a probit model to analyze the occurrence of a failure to appear, we show that urine test results have no consistent power to predict pretrial misconduct after accounting for defendant's criminal records, community ties, and other factors commonly known by the court. These results are based on our analysis of eight data sets from different locales, time periods, and age groups.