Examining Space–Time Interaction in City-Level Homicide Data: Crack Markets and the Diffusion of Guns Among Youth

This paper examines the linkage between crack market activity and gunhomicide suggested by Blumstein (1995), who argues that the arrival ofcrack stimulated an increased availability of guns among juveniles. Thisgreater availability of guns, the argument continues, is responsible for thesharp upswing in juvenile homicide experienced in the United States in themid-1980s. Using city-level data on crack arrests and gun-related juvenilehomicide, we fit a change-point version of the Bass (1969) model ofinnovation diffusion. We find that, in most large American cities, thediffusion process for crack cocaine experienced an onset of dramatic growththat was followed by a similar, slightly slower growth in gun homicidescommitted by juveniles. We further use cluster analysis to find that thespatial patterning of the two processes is similar, starting on the East andWest Coasts and working their way toward other regions of the nation. Gunuse in homicide among slightly older offenders (ages 18–24) alsoexperienced a change at roughly the same time as the juveniles, but the rateof diffusion was considerably milder than for the younger group; offendersages 25 or older generally show no growth in gun-related homicide whatsoever. In addition, there is no detectable surge in juvenile nongun homicide activity. Based on these findings, we conclude that the crack cocaine markets–gun availability linkage is highly plausible, and we suggest directions for future research in clarifying the dynamics of the late-1980s surge in juvenile homicide.     

贵阳市“十二五”就业形势与对策研究

文章结合贵阳市实际,初步分析了贵阳市当前就业的基本状况及问题成因,分析和预测了贵阳市"十二五"时期就业的发展趋势,并提出相应的对策措施和建议。     

当前大学生恋爱中不良倾向的分析与思考

当前在大学生恋爱中存在的低龄化、休闲化、时尚化、体验化、实用化、“快餐化”和放纵化等不良倾向，对大学生的成长和成才构成了很大威胁。学校必须加强对大学生恋爱的教育、管理和指导。     

SCOPE AND CONCEPTUAL ISSUES IN TESTING THE RACE–CRIME INVARIANCE THESIS: BLACK,WHITE, AND HISPANIC COMPARISONS*

Our goal in this article is to contribute conceptually and empirically to assessments of the racial invariance hypothesis, which posits that structural disadvantage predicts violent crime in the same way for all racial and ethnic groups. Conceptually, we elucidate the scope of the racial invariance hypothesis and clarify the criteria used for evaluating it. Empirically, we use 1999–2001 averaged arrest data from California and New York to extend analyses of the invariance hypothesis within the context of the scope and definitional issues raised in our conceptual framing—most notably by including Hispanic comparisons with Blacks and Whites, by examining the invariance assumption for homicide as well as the violent crime index, by using discrete as well as composite disadvantage measures, and by using census place localities as the study unit. The mixed findings we report from our comparisons (across Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics; offense types; and type of disadvantage) suggest caution and uncertainty about the notion that structural sources of violence affect racial/ethnic groups in uniform ways. We conclude that the hypothesis should be regarded as provisional, and its scope remains to be established as to whether it applies only under narrow conditions or is a principle of general applicability.     

Homicide and economic change: Recent analyses of the Joint Economic Committee report of 1984

The relation between recession and homicide is classic in the United States. This has been affirmed in the 1976 and 1984 Reports to the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) of the United States Congress. Recent analysis confirms the findings reported in both 1976 and 1984 and demonstrates that the influence of recession on homicide is greater than previously estimated. Differences in the 1976 and 1984 findings on homicide are related to differences in the hypotheses tested, as discussed in detail and highlighted in the 1984 report. JEC staff correctly interpreted and reported the 1984 findings. Reproduction of the 1984 homicide equation is straightforward, provided the same data and any of several standard estimation techniques are used. Evidence does not support any of Cook and Zarkin's claims in their critique of the 1984 homicide equation. The JEC report of 1984 used appropriate techniques in the attempt (a) to ensure that influences attributed to economic changes are not actually due to other social factors and (b) to minimize underspecification of models.     

社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的三大机制

建立科学的引领机制是解决社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的首选之举。动力机制是社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的内力之源；保障机制是社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的现实之选；协调机制是社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮的灵活之策。在坚持一元主导、多元并存的前提下，将三者紧密结合，有利于最大限度地形成社会思想共识，促进社会主义意识形态建设。     

“命案必破”的逻辑解析

“命案必破”是一个规范命题,承诺命题,同时又是一个必然模态命题。“命案必破”之因,产生了公安工作发展之果;公安工作发展之果又不断促进“命案必破”目标的实现;“命案必破”目标的不断实现必然促进社会治安秩序的稳定;社会治安秩序的稳定又为构建社会主义和谐社会提供强有力的保障。因此,无论从逻辑上对命题本身的解读,还是对命题与实践结果的因果分析,都可以得出一个结论,“命案必破”命题的提出不但是科学的,而且具有十分积极的社会意义。     

Violent victimization among males and economic conditions

Research Summary In this article, we use data from the 1973 to 2005 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to estimate previously unknown trends in serious nonfatal violent victimization for Latino, non-Latino Black, and non-Latino White males in the United States. Past research has shown that Blacks and Latinos have been more susceptible than Whites to financial hardship during economic downturns and that economic disadvantage is an important correlate of violence in cross-sectional analyses. If significant declines in the national economy contribute to increases in violence, then crime trends disaggregated by race and ethnicity should show greater changes among minorities during periods of economic downturn. Although rates of violence have declined for all groups, we find that trends for Latino and Black males are similar and closely follow changes in consumer sentiment. In contrast, trends for White males display fewer fluctuations coinciding with changes in economic conditions. Continued disaggregation shows that these patterns appear primarily in stranger violence and not in violence by known offenders. The patterns also suggest that the association between changing economic conditions and male victimization trends might have weakened in recent years. Policy Implications The findings raise concerns about the potential impact of recent economic changes on the risk for serious victimization, particularly among Blacks and Latinos. In light of the possible recent weakening of the relationship between economic changes and crime, future research should assess whether criminal justice policies and other factors moderate the relationship between economic conditions and victimization and use group-specific measures of violence so that important variability across race and ethnicity is not masked. These analyses also should be expanded to consider the potential effects on violence of government policies designed to alleviate poverty and unemployment.     

系列杀人案件侦查对策研究

系列杀人案件具有严重的社会危害性,是公安机关侦查实践中打击和预防的重点。因此,从系列杀人案件形成的原因分析入手,结合系列杀人案件侦查实践,提出了包括并案侦查、专案专办、提升侦查人员能力水平、发动群众提供线索等在内的多种对策。     

和谐警民关系建设的有效途径与方法探析

当前,和谐警民关系是公安机关面临的极为重要的一项工作,对构建和谐社会,维护社会的长治久安有着极为重要的作用。为此,应从:提升认识,转换角色;细化职责目标、有效维护社会安宁;持证上岗定期考核,实施分层、分流使用;理顺警民联系渠道,使大走访成为经常访;广采民智、诚靠民力,真正构筑社会治安立体防控网等途径建设。和谐警民关系建设的方法主要有:主业先行法;亲民爱民法;阳光操作法;人性化执法法;形象建设法;以民为本法;多渠道民意收集法等。