Risk factors for recidivism among spousal assault and spousal homicide offenders

Abstract

The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA; Kropp et al., 1995) is a 20-item checklist for the structured professional assessment of risk for partner violence. This study reported on a retrospective follow-up of file-based SARA assessments of offenders convicted 1988–1990 in Sweden. A total of 88 male batterers referred for court-ordered forensic psychiatric evaluations were included. During the 7-year follow-up, twenty-five (28%) were re-convicted of spousal assault. A few SARA items were statistically significantly associated with increased risk of recidivism, namely: Items #3, Past violation of conditional release or community supervision, #10 Personality disorder with anger, impulsivity, or behavioural instability (psychopathy), and #16 Extreme minimisation or denial of spousal assault history. The severity of the index crime (#18 Severe and/or sexual assault) was negatively related to risk for recidivism during follow-up. Offenders scoring above the median on the SARA were at more than 2.5 higher the risk for recidivism than those scoring below the median. In terms of predictive validity, the SARA actuarial score exhibited a marginal but statistically significant improvement over chance in this sample.     

Another look at across-crime similarity coefficients for use in behavioural linkage analysis: an attempt to replicate Woodhams,Grant, and Price (2007)

Abstract

In the absence of physical evidence, investigators must often rely on offence behaviours when determining whether several crimes are linked to a common offender. A variety of factors can potentially influence the degree to which accurate linking is possible, including the similarity coefficient used to assess across-crime similarity. The current study examines the performance of two similarity coefficients that have recently been compared to one another, Jaccard's coefficient (J) and the taxonomic similarity index (Δ_s), using samples of two crime types, serial homicide (N=237) and serial burglary (N=210). In contrast to previous research, the results indicate that Δ_s does not significantly outperform J with respect to linking accuracy. In addition, both coefficients lead to higher levels of linking accuracy in cases of serial homicide compared to serial burglary. Potential explanations for these findings are presented and their implications are discussed.     

Homicide and infanticide in Stockholm 1920–1939

This article studied 45 cases of homicide and infanticide in Stockholm District Court 1920–1939 and compared them with cases in Sweden in the 1990s. Compared with homicide in Sweden today, fundamental similarities were found in the category of domestic homicide, but with the important differences that extended suicides have decreased and changed in character from being passive to becoming active, and from having been committed by many women to being committed mainly by men. Drunken brawls are the same in character, but have increased with time. The free access of alcohol and the financial means of a large group of relatively young people can explain this increase. Infanticide has decreased considerably, indicating that social development has reduced the incitement to this type of killing. The view of offenders' responsibility in the inter-war period depended on their gender and whether they were intoxicated by alcohol. The view of insanity has changed with time, but regarding alcohol no comparable material was available. Finally, the lessons we can learn from studying the inter-war period is that domestic violence has to be taken seriously and the alcohol factor, with its sometimes negative consequences, has to be accepted, unless we want to fundamentally change our society and way of life.     

全球区域经济一体化新趋势与中国的FTA策略选择

进入21世纪以来,以自由贸易协定(FTA)为主要形式的区域经济一体化浪潮在全球风起云涌并呈现出新的发展趋势。在此背景下,中国应当进一步顺应区域经济一体化发展的潮流,采取多维灵活的FTA战略,积极稳妥渐进地开展自由贸易区工作,逐步形成全球自由贸易区合作网络,在地区双边和多边贸易自由化进程中发挥更积极作用。     

从党的群众路线教育活动看党建研究的趋向

党的群众路线教育实践活动是一次全党的执政理念教育,显示党的建设理论研究基本趋向。党建理论研究将以党的执政理念为中心从基本理论、战略布局、战略实施等层面展开。     

The “microwave oven” practice in Brazil

This article presents a forensic case of an unusual illegal cremation of a person using a process colloquially known as the “microwave oven” practice in Brazil. The microwave process involves two actions: placing the victim in a tire stack and then setting the structure on fire using flammable substances to accelerate the progression. A similar practice, identified as “necklacing”, has also been reported in other countries such as South Africa. This report presents a case of microwave oven cremation of a body found in a rural area of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The forensic work helped determine the biological profile and identity of the victim using radiological comparisons. Although the microwave oven cremation practice is rare, it can impose challenges for investigators. Therefore, fully understanding this practice can be helpful to the academic and forensic communities.     

国际碳关税的发展趋势及对我国潜在影响分析

本文从国际碳关税发展趋势入手,分析后危机时代碳关税的发展趋势,指出碳关税的实质是披着＂绿色外衣＂的新型贸易保护主义,体现了发达国家主控全球经济的霸权主义。碳关税的出台将使我国面临的贸易摩擦数量和范围增大、出口及经济增长受到阻碍、制造业及其产业链遭受严重冲击、战略性新兴产业竞争压力增大,因此必须勇于面对碳关税的挑战,从国际国内两个层面采取相应措施。     

改革官僚制:政府治理模式的新趋势

现代官僚制兴起于十七八世纪.官僚制是整合国家权力的重要工具.欧洲、非欧民族国家的兴起都与在国内实行科层制的实践相关.但是,随着时代的变迁,官僚制难以适应已经变化了的政治、经济和技术环境.改革官僚制已成为发达国家行政改革的重要内容.这种政府治理模式的变迁,对发展中国家的政治改革有着重要的参考价值.     

英国公务员培训与开发新趋势的启示和借鉴

英国公务员培训与开发在英国公共管理改革与发展中发挥着十分重要的作用。为适应新形势、新发展的需要,英国公务员培训与开发出现了新的趋势和特点。本文对英国公务员培训与开发的新趋势进行了分析和总结,在此基础上对我国公务员培训与开发工作提出相应的建议。     

COMMUNITIES,STREET GUNS AND HOMICIDE TRAJECTORIES IN CHICAGO, 1980–1995: MERGING METHODS FOR EXAMINING HOMICIDE TRENDS ACROSS SPACE AND TIME*

We merge Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and a semi‐parametric, group‐based trajectory procedure (TRAJ) to classify communities in Chicago by violence trajectories across space. Total, street gun and other weapon homicide trajectories are identified across 831 census tracts between 1980 and 1995. We find evidence consistent with a weapon substitution effect in violent neighborhoods that are proximate to one another, a defensive diffusion effect of exclusively street gun‐specific homicide increases in neighborhoods bordering the most violent areas, and a spatial decay effect of temporal homicide trends in which the most violent areas are buffered from the least violent by places experiencing mid‐range levels of lethal violence over time. In merging these two methods of data analysis, we provide a more efficient way to describe both spatial and temporal trends and make significant advances in furthering applications of space‐time methodologies.