A Study of the Predictors of Persistence in Stalking Situations

Stalkers engaging in persistent campaigns of harassment have the potential to cause immense harm to their victims and themselves. Being able to estimate which stalkers are likely to persist longest is important to clinicians dealing with both perpetrators and victims. This study of 200 stalkers investigated characteristics of the stalkers and their behaviour that were associated with increased persistence. Logistic regression models were developed to predict low, moderate, and highly persistent stalking. The results supported previous research indicating that the type of prior relationship between stalker and victim is strongly associated with persistence, with prior acquaintances the most persistent, and strangers least. Being aged over 30, sending the victim unsolicited materials, and having an intimacy seeking or resentful motivation was also associated with greater persistence, as was the presence of psychosis.

Psychopathy and Stalking

We examined the association between psychopathy, assessed using the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised: Screening Version (Hart et al., Manual for the psychopathy checklist screening version (PCL:SV), 1995), and stalking in 61 men convicted of stalking-related offenses. Psychopathic symptoms were rare, but their presence—especially that of affective deficit symptoms—was associated with victimization of casual acquaintances and with several risk factors from the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM) (Kropp et al., Guidelines for stalking assessment and management, 2008a), including stalking in violation of supervision orders, degree of preoccupation with victims, and targeting of victims with limited access to external resources. The findings suggest that in spite of their rarity, psychopathic traits may be important in the assessment and management of stalking risk.

Can 14,737 women be wrong? A meta‐analysis of the LSI‐R and recidivism for female offenders*

Research Summary Over the past two decades, researchers have been increasingly interested in measuring the risk of offender recidivism as a means of advancing public safety and of directing treatment interventions. In this context, one instrument widely used in assessing offenders is the Level of Service Inventory‐Revised (LSI‐R). Recently, however, the LSI‐R has been criticized for being a male‐specific assessment instrument that is a weak predictor of criminal behavior in females. Through the use of meta‐analytic techniques, we assessed this assertion. A total of 27 effect sizes yielded an average r value of .35 ([confidence interval] CI = .34 to .36) for the relationship of the LSI‐R with recidivism for female offenders (N= 14,737). When available, we also made within‐sample comparisons based on gender. These comparisons produced effect sizes for males and females that were statistically similar. Policy Implications These results are consistent with those generated in previous research on the LSI‐R. They call into question prevailing critiques that the LSI‐R has predictive validity for male but not for female offenders. At this stage, it seems that corrections officials should be advised that the LSI‐R remains an important instrument for assessing all offenders as a prelude to the delivery of treatment services, especially those based on the principles of effective intervention. Critics should be encouraged, however, to construct and validate through research additional gender‐specific instruments that revise, if not rival, the LSI‐R.     

海洋工程对环境影响评价与司法鉴定

为确定污染源、污染范围和污染程度,鉴定民事责任诉讼请求与海洋工程建设项目所产生的环境影响之间有无因果关系,根据《海水水质标准》、《渔业水质标准》、《海洋沉积物质量》和《海洋生物质量》等国家标准对海洋工程建设项目所在的养殖海域水质、沉积物、生物体选点采样。实地勘察,进行环境监测和环境影响评价。结果表明,水质污染物、沉积物污染物．生物体污染物不是民事责任诉讼请求所述养殖贝类大量死亡的直接原因。司法鉴定结论：海洋工程建设项目施工现场．周围海域局部受到施工产生较小泥浆入海泥沙影响,靠近海洋工程建设项目施工现场的一定范围养殖贝类死亡与海洋工程建设项目施工之间有因果关系,依据水域污染事故渔业损失计算方法,评估养殖损失。     

Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

Criminal Recidivism Among Juvenile Offenders: Testing the Incremental and Predictive Validity of Three Measures of Psychopathic Features

We studied the predictive, comparative, and incremental validity of three measures of psychopathic features (Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Antisocial Process Screening Device [APSD]; Childhood Psychopathy Scale [CPS]) vis-à-vis criminal recidivism among 83 delinquent youth within a truly prospective design. Bivariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazard analyses) showed that of the three measures, the CPS was most consistently related to most types of recidivism in comparison to the other measures. However, incremental validity analyses demonstrated that all of the predictive effects for the measures of psychopathic features disappeared after conceptually relevant covariates (i.e., substance use, conduct disorder, young age, past property crime) were included in multivariate predictive models. Implications for the limits of these measures in applied juvenile justice assessment are discussed.     

An Indepth Actuarial Assessment for Wife Assault Recidivism: The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide</Emphasis>

An actuarial tool, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), predicts recidivism using only variables readily obtained by frontline police officers. Correctional settings permit more comprehensive assessments. In a subset of ODARA construction and cross-validation cases, 303 men with a police record for wife assault and a correctional system file, the VRAG, SARA, Danger Assessment, and DVSI also predicted recidivism, but the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R) best improved prediction of recidivism, occurrence, frequency, severity, injury, and charges. In 346 new cases, ODARA and PCL-R independently predicted recidivism. An algorithm was derived for a combined instrument, the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG), and an experience table is presented (N=649). Results indicated the importance of antisociality in wife assault.     

The use and non-use of policy appraisal tools in public policy making: an analysis of three European countries and the European Union

The increasing complexity of policy problems, coupled with the political desire to base new policies on the foundation of firm evidence, has accelerated the development of policy assessment tools. These range from complex computer models and cost benefit analysis through simple checklists and decision trees. In the last decade, many governments have established formal policy assessment systems to harness these tools in order to facilitate more evidence-based policy making. These tools are potentially widely available, but to what extent are they used by policy makers and what becomes of the evidence that they generate? This paper addresses these questions by studying the empirical patterns of tool use across 37 cases in three European countries and the European Commission. It uses a simple classification of tools into advanced, formal and simple types. It finds that even when tools are embedded in policy assessment systems, their use is differentiated and on the whole very limited, in particular when it comes to more advanced tools. It then explores these patterns from contrasting theoretical perspectives to shed light on why, when and how different policy assessment tools are used in the policy process.     

针刺督脉组穴治疗血管性认知障碍临床观察

目的 观察针刺督脉组穴治疗血管性认知障碍（vascular cognitive impairment,VCI）的临床疗效。方法 将51例VCI患者随机分为针刺组（25例）和药物组（26）例,针刺组采用针刺督脉穴位神庭、百会、风府、大椎进行治疗,药物组采用口服多奈哌齐进行治疗。观察并比较治疗前后患者血清血红蛋白（hemoglobin, Hgb）水平及中医证候量表、MMSE量表、Hachinski量表、额叶功能评定量表（frontal assessment battery, FAB）评分。结果 两组治疗前Hgb水平比较,差异无统计学意义(P＞0.05）。两组治疗后Hgb水平均较治疗前显著升高（P＜0.05）,且针刺组升高值显著大于药物组（P＜0.05）。两组治疗前中医证候评分比较,差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）。两组治疗后中医证候评分均较治疗前显著降低（P＜0.05）,且针刺组降低值显著大于药物组（P＜0.05）。两组治疗前MMSE、Hachinski、FAB评分比较,差异均无统计学意义（P＞0.05）。与治疗前比较,两组治疗后MMSE、FAB评分均显著增加(P＜0.05),且针刺组增加值显著大于药物组（P＜0.05）。与治疗前比较,两组治疗后Hachinski评分显著降低（P＜0.05）,且针刺组降低值显著大于药物组（P＜0.05）。两组疗效分布比较,差异具有统计学意义（P＜0.05）,针刺组疗效优于药物组。结论 针刺督脉组穴可改善VCI患者认知能力,且疗效优于多奈哌齐。