青岛地区汉族人群13个STR基因座的频率分布及法医学应用

目的　调查青岛地区汉族人群无关个体的 13个STR基因座 (D3S135 8、VWA、FGA、D8S1179、D2 1S11、D18S5 1、D5S818、D13S317、D7S82 0、D16S5 39、TH0 1、TPOX、CSFIPO)的基因频率分布 ,研究其遗传多态性及其在法医学个体识别及亲子鉴定中的应用价值。　方法　用美国ABI - 310型遗传分析仪对ProfilerPlus和Cofiler两个系统的 13个STR基因座的复合扩增产物进行毛细管电泳及四色荧光自动分析检测 ,基因分型软件为GeneScanv3.1和Genotyperv2 .5 .2。　 结果　获得 13个STR基因座在青岛地区汉族人群的基因频率分布数据 ,13个STR基因座的PIC >0 .5 ,DP >0 .71,CCE =0 .999999,TDP值接近 1,TPm =1.2× 10 -14 ,家系调查符合孟德尔遗传规律。　结论　ProfilerPlus和Cofiler两个系统的 13个STR基因座在法医学个体识别及亲子鉴定中具有较高的应用价值。     

Beyond CSI: Calibrating public beliefs about the reliability of forensic science through openness and transparency

What drives public beliefs about the credibility of a scientific field? This question is increasingly important, with recent discussion of a “reproducibility crisis” affecting many fields. Such discussions are vital in forensic science, a discipline that has experienced severe scrutiny from both the media and large oversight bodies. In this paper, we make three contributions to this discussion. First, we bring together and compare several studies in which laypeople were asked about the reliability of forensic science practices. This review suggests that forensic practices do not enjoy uniformly high reliability ratings from the public and these ratings are not calibrated with the scientific consensus. We then review three empirically-tested ways that other fields are dealing with their own crises, all centred around transparency and openness. Finally, we make recommendations for how forensic science can leverage transparency and openness to improve and maintain its long-term credibility. As part of these recommendations, we find that empirical research supports the Houston Forensic Science Center’s recent claims that it has improved its credibility through openness and transparency.     

The Use of CT Scans in Estimating Age at Death by Examining the Extent of Ectocranial Suture Closure

We examined the utility of CT scans in the evaluation of degree of ectocranial suture closure. Five cranial points (left and right midcoronal positions, left and right midlambdoidal positions, and the lambda) were evaluated in 231 CT scans using a three‐point scoring system (open, partial closed, and closed). The slice increment and thickness varied between three groups of the scans. The results showed a good correlation between degree of suture closure and increasing age in each group. Young individuals (<40 years) and old individuals (>60 years) could be clearly distinguished from the middle‐aged individuals. ANOVA test revealed no difference between two groups of scans and between left and right sides (p > 0.05). Interobserver agreement was good, especially considering the score by sides. The results of this study create the base for developing a robust and simple method to estimate the age at death using CT scans.     

Interpreting Injury Mechanisms of Blunt Force Trauma from Butterfly Fracture Formation

According to biomechanics of fracture production during blunt impact, tubular bones are subject to compressive (impact site) and tensile (opposite impact site) forces; this causes bones to break in tension before compression, producing Y-shaped fracture patterns with breakaway (butterfly) fragments. In current forensic models, the side of the bone exhibiting the breakaway fragment is designated the impact side, with initial breakage occurring opposite. Fracture production and patterning of blunt impacts to 255 sheep femora were analyzed. Contra the existing model, only 60% of complete butterfly fractures exhibited impact side breakaway fragments. Although fractures initiated on the tension, nonimpact side, butterfly fragments formed on either compression or tension sides. Using newly defined breakaway fragment shape criteria, impact side was estimated with 98% accuracy for both complete and partial butterfly fractures. Furthermore, the results suggest that the impact site is the located on one of the Y-fracture's arms, not the butterfly fragment's center, as previously modeled.     

明清之际中国人的科学观--以徐光启为例

明清之际以徐光启为代表的中国思想家对待科学的态度,和当时到中国来的西方传教士是不相同的;当时中国思想家的科学观,未必都是西方文化刺激的结果.徐光启等人的科学哲学思想及其方法论,远远超出当时来华的西方传教士之上,甚至可以和同时代西方的培根、伽里略、笛卡尔等大思想家相提并论.     

Japanese political studies: where are we? How did we get here? Where are we going?

Abstract

We offer a historically grounded analysis of major works in the study of Japanese politics with a focus on the period since the Second World War. The article traces an evolution from early assessments of Japanese democracy and modernization through the focus on the political economy of high growth to the current disciplinary-based emphasis on narrower but more empirically defensible research. We close with a call for future research to take greater risks at synthetic analyses of Japanese politics broadly considered.     

The likelihood approach to compare populations: a study on DNA evidence and pitfalls of intuitions

The paper follows on from earlier work [Taroni F and Aitken CGG. Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence. Science & Justice 1998; 38: 165-177]. Different explanations of the value of DNA evidence were presented to students from two schools of forensic science and to members of fifteen laboratories all around the world. The responses were divided into two groups; those which came from a school or laboratory identified as Bayesian and those which came from a school or laboratory identified as non-Bayesian. The paper analyses these responses using a likelihood approach. This approach is more consistent with a Bayesian analysis than one based on a frequentist approach, as was reported by Taroni F and Aitken CGG. [Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence] in Science & Justice 1998.     

The downstream consequences of long waits: How lines at the precinct depress future turnout

Researchers have increasingly paid attention to the impact that the administrative component of elections has on voter behavior. Existing research has focused almost exclusively on the effect that legal changes--such as voter identification laws--have on turnout. This paper extends our understanding of the electoral process by exploring how one aspect of the precinct experience--standing in line to vote--can shape the turnout behavior of voters in subsequent elections. I demonstrate that for every additional hour a voter waits in line to vote, their probability of voting in the subsequent election drops by 1 percentage point. To arrive at these estimates, I analyze vote history files using a combination of exact matching and placebo tests to test the identification assumptions. I then leverage an unusual institutional arrangement in the City of Boston and longitudinal data from Florida to show that the result also holds at the precinct level. The findings in this paper have important policy implications for administrative changes that may impact line length, such as voter identification requirements and precinct consolidation. They also suggest that racial asymmetries in precinct wait times contribute to the gap in turnout rates between white and non-white voters.     

Chemical Contamination of Soft Drinks in Sealed Plastic Bottles by Environmental Stress Cracking

Abstract:  A contamination of soft drinks in sealed bottles by organic solvents is reported: closed bottles full of soft drinks were accidentally placed on a cardboard soaked with thinner and the organic fluid subsequently fissured the bottom of the bottles and penetrated into the soft drinks without any apparent leakage of the soft drinks. Experiments were carried out to simulate the process: the penetration of different organic solvents into soft drinks through the bottom of closed bottles was tested. The penetration occurred only when the closed bottles contained carbonated soft drinks (CSD), indicating that inner pressure is a necessary condition for the fissuring of the bottles. This paper discusses environmental stress cracking of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles by organic solvents and migration of chemicals to CSD. Experiments were conducted to determine the conditions in which PET can be permeable to poisoning organic products.