学术批评认识中的四个误区

当前学术界存在严重的学术腐败现象,亟须进行严肃的学术批评。但对学术批评,人们却在认识上存在四个误区:一是认为学术成果不具有学术性;二是认为学术批评者是为了追名逐利;三是认为搞学术批评是别有用心;四是认为只有“圣人”或“神”才有资格做学术批评。结果,在学术批评上出现了所谓“沉默的大多数”。学术界真正的希望不在于他们,而在于那些勇于捅破学术“溃疡”的人们。     

医疗过错:现实立法与学者意向--基于《医疗事故处理条例》和《中国民法典*侵权行为(法)篇草案建议稿》的分析

本文以新出台的<医疗事故处理条例>和学者们提出的<中国民法典*侵权行为 (法)编草案建议稿>为对象进行比较研究,试图探讨有关医疗过错的现实立法态度和学者们的意向,并对医疗过错立法提出个人的观点,希望能对我国民法典的起草起到一定的参考作用.     

Exploring the Impacts of Ordinary Laboratory Alterations During Forensic DNA Processing on Peak Height Variation,Thresholds, and Probability of Dropout,

Impacts of validation design on DNA signal were explored, and the level of variation introduced by injection, capillary changes, amplification, and kit lot was surveyed by examining a set of replicate samples ranging in mass from 0.25 to 0.008 ng. The variations in peak height, heterozygous balance, dropout probabilities, and baseline noise were compared using common statistical techniques. Data indicate that amplification is the source of the majority of the variation observed in the peak heights, followed by capillary lots. The use of different amplification kit lots did not introduce variability into the peak heights, heterozygous balance, dropout, or baseline. Thus, if data from case samples run over a significant time period are not available during validation, the validation must be designed to, at a minimum, include the amplification of multiple samples of varying quantity, with known genotype, amplified and run over an extended period of time using multiple pipettes and capillaries.     

A Validation Study of Bullet and Cartridge Case Comparisons Using Samples Representative of Actual Casework

The foundation of firearm and tool mark identification is that no two tools should produce the same microscopic marks on two separate objects that they would be inaccurately or wrongly identified. Studies addressing the validity of identification infrequently employ tests that mirror realistic casework scenarios. This study attempted to do so using a double‐blind process, reducing test‐taking bias. Test kits including bullets and cartridge cases but not the associated firearms were completed by 31 analysts from 22 agencies. Analysis of the results demonstrated an overall error rate of 0.303%, sensitivity of 85.2%, and specificity of 86.8%. Variability in performance across examiners is addressed, and the effect of examiners’ years of experience on identification accuracy is explored. Finally, the article discusses the importance of studies using realistic case work scenarios when validating the field's performance and in providing courts with usable indicators of the accuracy of firearm and tool mark identification.     

侦查错误的类型、原因与预防策略

错误是与参照标准、规范、预期不一致的观念或者非故意行为,而侦查活动具有求真属性、策略属性和规范属性。因此,侦查错误可以分为事实型错误、决策型错误（或策略型错误）、规范型错误。事实型错误的原因包括侦查人员的认知心理等因素;决策型错误的原因包括事实型错误、对规范的理解错误等方面;规范型错误包括事实型错误、决策型错误、偏见、过度追求事实真相等。根据不同错误的原因,可以提出相应的预防策略。     

论刑事司法错误的发生机理与现实危害——基于诉讼运行的分析

从诉讼运行的角度讲,"不枉不纵/程序合法"仅是一种具有理想色彩的迷思,相反,刑事司法错误在诉讼现实中无可难免。这主要是因为,主观上,刑事司法制度的构建与运行受制于人类的有限理性;客观上,刑事司法活动的开启与完成也受到认知规律和物证技术的限制,难以保障不枉不纵和程序合法。而刑事司法错误的现实危害却极大,微观上造成本案权益的损失与司法成本的耗费,宏观上则导致程序刚性的式微与国家信用的流失。     

Does ticket-splitting decrease the accuracy of recalled previous voting? Evidence from three German panel surveys

This paper addresses the role of ticket-splitting in decreasing the accuracy of recalled previous voting. It suggests that ticket-splitting makes recalling vote choice a more difficult task and thus increases recall error. Using data from three German panel surveys conducted from 1998 to 2008, the paper demonstrates that ticket-splitting increases recall error by a considerable margin, even after controlling for behavioral and attitudinal predictors. This finding suggests that recall accuracy is not a stable voter characteristic. It also lends credence to the notion that the increase in ticket-splitting in recent German elections decreased the accuracy of recalled previous voting. Finally, the evidence suggests that electoral systems affect the validity of survey answers concerning previous vote choice.     

Optimal agency contracts: The effect of vicarious liability and judicial error

Under the doctrine of vicarious liability, a deep-pocket principal is often held responsible for a third-party harm caused by a judgment-proof agent’s negligence. We analyze the incentive contract used by the principal to control the agent’s behavior when a court can make an error in determining the agent’s negligence. We show that (1) reducing the error of declaring the agent not negligent even when he was (pro-defendant or type II error) is better than reducing the error of declaring the agent negligent even when he was not (pro-plaintiff or type I error) and (2) allowing the principal to penalize the agent even when the court declares the agent not negligent improves welfare. The latter supports the argument that causing an accident (or a reliable allegation of misconduct) should be sufficient to justify a “just cause” termination of an employee.     

The Contribution of Body Mass and Volume of Distribution to the Estimated Uncertainty Associated with the Widmark Equation

The Widmark equation is used forensically for the determination of the amount of ethanol (alcohol) that may have been consumed and also to determine the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of an individual at a specific time. It is important to be able to estimate the uncertainty associated with Widmark equations. To date, there has been no detailed determination of contribution to the final uncertainty of Widmark calculations of the volume of distribution of ethanol (V_d), using anthropometric equations, or the contribution of an individual’s body mass. Using published data, published literature, and freedom of information data, we determined that the variability (%CV) associated with V_d was ~10% (Watson et al. and Forrest anthropometric equations) and that the %CV associated with estimated body mass was ~15% compared to ~3% when body mass was directly measured. These data allow an estimation of the overall uncertainty of Widmark calculations using general error propagation. The estimated total uncertainty for BAC calculations increased from ~11% (volume consumed) and ~22% (BAC) to ~19% (volume consumed) and ~37% (BAC) when using measured body mass compared to estimated body mass. These results demonstrate that forensic practitioners should be mindful of the increase in estimated uncertainty in calculated Widmark equation results when estimated body mass is used rather than measured body mass. These data further improve the knowledge around the uncertainty of results calculated with the Widmark equation.     

Measuring Exposure to Political Advertising in Surveys

Research on the influence of negative political advertising in America is characterized by fundamentally conflicting findings. In recent years, however, survey research using estimates of exposure based on a combination of self-reported television viewing habits and Campaign Media Analysis Group data (a database of all advertisements broadcast on national and cable television in the top 75 media markets) has argued that exposure to negative political advertising boosts interest in the campaign and turnout. This paper examines the measurement properties of self-reports of television viewing. I argue that the errors from common survey formats may both be nonrandom and larger than previously acknowledged. The nonrandom error is due to the tendency of politically knowledgeable individuals to be more sensitive to question format. Thus the inferences drawn about the relationship between political knowledge, exposure to negative ads, and political behavior are also sensitive to the measures used to estimate exposure. I demonstrate, however, that one commonly used measure of exposure—the log of estimated exposure—is not only more theoretically defensible but also alleviates some of the more serious problems due to measurement error.