中国城市化进程与犯罪率之间关系的实证研究——基于结构突变的协整分析

在我国城市化发展进程中,伴随着犯罪率的显著上升,二者具有显著的长期趋势的一致性和短期波动的差异性。＂严打＂运动的外部冲击对协整模型具有显著的结构影响,＂严打＂运动在短期也起到了遏制犯罪的震慑效果。     

Sexual Dimorphism of the First Rib: A Comparative Approach Using Metric and Geometric Morphometric Analyses

This research investigated the sexual dimorphism of the first human rib using geometric morphometric and metric approaches on a sample of 285 specimens containing European Americans and African Americans from the Hamann‐Todd collection. Metric measurements were investigated for sexual dimorphism and ancestral differences using univariate statistics. Four type II landmarks and 40 sliding semi‐landmarks were placed outlining the dorsal and ventral curvatures of the ribs. Landmark data were processed using Generalized Procrustes Analyses with Procrustes distance sliding, and the subsequent coordinates were investigated for sexual dimorphism and ancestral differences using Procrustes ANOVAs. Both geometric morphometric and metric data were analyzed using cross‐validated discriminant function analyses to test the hypothesis that variables from both approaches can be combined to increase sex classification rate. European Americans had sex correctly classified as high as 88.05% and African Americans as high as 70.86% using a combination of metric and geometric morphometric variables.     

A test of the stability of punishment hypothesis: The Dutch case

This paper tests the hypothesis of the stability of punishment as developed by Blumstein and his associates against Dutch prison data. After summarizing the existing empirical evidence, Dutch prison data are presented pertaining to the average daily population in penal institutions, on the one hand, and the number of admissions in these institutions, on the other hand. In three ways it is tested whether these data do support the hypothesis: regression analysis, Box-Jenkins analysis, and the analysis of a few dynamic models as presented by Berket al. (1981). The paper ends with discussing Blumstein's hypothesis and considers the way research into the extent of the prison population should be continued.     

Winning at the polls and in the polls: the incumbency advantage in surveys of U.S. house voters

The success of House incumbents at the polls is well known and has been studied extensively. This paper focuses on the incumbents' success in the polls: the support bestowed upon incumbents by survey respondents is substantially higher than that received from the voters. The incumbency advantage at the polls, estimated at about 10% in the most recent elections, is almost doubled when measured in the polls. The data, drawn from the 1982–1996 National Election Studies, show that respondents do not reward all winners; candidates elected to open seats have not benefitted from the kind of bounce consistently enjoyed by winning incumbents. In addition, the pattern of respondents' misreports appears to be inconsistent with earlier explanations based on instrument effects. Respondent bias should be accounted for in order to reach correct estimates of the incumbency advantage in individual-level data.     

A validation study for duct tape end matches

Fracture matches are considered to be the strongest association achievable in forensic examinations of glass, metal, wood, plastic, paint, tape, and other trace evidence. Despite being fairly routine examinations, few publications exist to support their admissibility in court. This study was designed, using duct tape as the fractured medium, to determine the validity and error rate associated with conducting end match (fracture match) examinations on this material. Five test designs, which varied either the source roll of tape or manner of separation (torn or cut) from the roll, were administered to four analysts with instructions to examine the assigned test sets for end matches. If an end match was not identified by the initial analyst, the entire test set was independently evaluated by the remaining three analysts. Results indicated that while tape grade did not hinder end match identification, the manner of separation could affect results.     

Revisiting Respondent “Fatigue Bias” in the National Crime Victimization Survey

For more than three decades the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—and its predecessor the National Crime Survey (NCS)—have been used to calculate estimates of nonfatal crime in the United States. Though the survey has contributed much to our understanding of criminal victimization, some aspects of the survey’s methodology continue to be analyzed (e.g., repeat victimizations, proxy interviews, and bounding). Surprisingly, one important aspect of NCVS methodology has escaped this scrutiny: respondent fatigue. A potential source of nonsampling error, fatigue bias is thought to manifest as respondents become “test wise” after repeated exposure to NCVS survey instruments. Using a special longitudinal NCVS data file, we revisit the presence and influence of respondent fatigue in the NCVS. Specifically, we test the theory that respondents exposed to longer interviews during their first interview are more likely to refuse to participate in the survey 6 months later. Contrary to expectations based on the literature, results show that prior reporting of victimization and exposure to a longer interview is not a significant predictor of a noninterview during the following time-in-sample once relevant individual characteristics are accounted for. Findings do demonstrate significant effects of survey mode and several respondent characteristics on subsequent survey non-participation.     

Medium‐Chain Acyl‐CoA Dehydrogenase Deficiency in Adulthood: A Potential Diagnosis in a Patient with Mental Status Changes Suspected of Drug Toxicity

Medium‐chain acyl‐CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency is a rare but important component of the differential diagnosis for adults with a history of premortem mental status changes and the postmortem finding of hepatic steatosis. This case report describes a 30‐year‐old white man who, following a period of nausea and vomiting, was admitted to the hospital with sudden mental status deterioration followed rapidly by clinical deterioration and death. Treating physicians in this case suspected acute illicit drug toxicity with synthetic cathinones based on social history. Clinicians and medical examiners should be aware that the presentation, signs, and symptoms described may indicate an underlying inborn error of metabolism such as MCAD deficiency and take action accordingly.     

Exploring the Impacts of Ordinary Laboratory Alterations During Forensic DNA Processing on Peak Height Variation,Thresholds, and Probability of Dropout,

Impacts of validation design on DNA signal were explored, and the level of variation introduced by injection, capillary changes, amplification, and kit lot was surveyed by examining a set of replicate samples ranging in mass from 0.25 to 0.008 ng. The variations in peak height, heterozygous balance, dropout probabilities, and baseline noise were compared using common statistical techniques. Data indicate that amplification is the source of the majority of the variation observed in the peak heights, followed by capillary lots. The use of different amplification kit lots did not introduce variability into the peak heights, heterozygous balance, dropout, or baseline. Thus, if data from case samples run over a significant time period are not available during validation, the validation must be designed to, at a minimum, include the amplification of multiple samples of varying quantity, with known genotype, amplified and run over an extended period of time using multiple pipettes and capillaries.     

A Validation Study of Bullet and Cartridge Case Comparisons Using Samples Representative of Actual Casework

The foundation of firearm and tool mark identification is that no two tools should produce the same microscopic marks on two separate objects that they would be inaccurately or wrongly identified. Studies addressing the validity of identification infrequently employ tests that mirror realistic casework scenarios. This study attempted to do so using a double‐blind process, reducing test‐taking bias. Test kits including bullets and cartridge cases but not the associated firearms were completed by 31 analysts from 22 agencies. Analysis of the results demonstrated an overall error rate of 0.303%, sensitivity of 85.2%, and specificity of 86.8%. Variability in performance across examiners is addressed, and the effect of examiners’ years of experience on identification accuracy is explored. Finally, the article discusses the importance of studies using realistic case work scenarios when validating the field's performance and in providing courts with usable indicators of the accuracy of firearm and tool mark identification.     

‘An error is feedback’: the experience of communication error management in crisis negotiations

A range of studies have examined what should be said and done in crisis negotiations. Yet, no study to date has considered what happens when an error is made, how to respond to an error, and what the consequences of errors and responses might be on the negotiation process itself. To develop our understanding of errors, we conducted 11 semi-structured interviews with police crisis negotiators in the Netherlands. Negotiators reported making errors of three types: factual, judgment, or contextual. They also reported making use of four types of response strategy: accept, apologize, attribute, and contradict. Critically, the negotiators did not perceive errors as solely detrimental, but as an opportunity for feedback. They advocated for an error management approach, which focused on what could be learned from another person’s errors when looking back at them. Suggestions for improvement of the communication error management experience in crisis negotiations are discussed.