Error Rates,Likelihood Ratios,and Jury Evaluation of Forensic Evidence

Forensic examiners regularly testify in criminal cases, informing the jurors whether crime scene evidence likely came from a source. In this study, we examine the impact of providing jurors with testimony further qualified by error rates and likelihood ratios, for expert testimony concerning two forensic disciplines: commonly used fingerprint comparison evidence and a novel technique involving voice comparison. Our method involved surveying mock jurors in Amazon Mechanical Turk (N = 897 laypeople) using written testimony and judicial instructions. Participants were more skeptical of voice analysis and generated fewer “guilty” decisions than for fingerprint analysis (B = 2.00, OR = 7.06, p = <0.000). We found that error rate information most strongly decreased “guilty” votes relative to no qualifying information for participants who heard fingerprint evidence (but not those that heard voice analysis evidence; B = −1.16, OR = 0.32, p = 0.007). We also found that error rates and conclusion types led to a greater decrease on “guilty” votes for fingerprint evidence than voice evidence (B = 1.44, OR = 4.23, p = 0.021). We conclude that these results suggest jurors adjust the weight placed on forensic evidence depending on their prior views about its reliability. Future research should develop testimony and judicial instructions that can better inform jurors of the strengths and limitations of forensic evidence.     

合规顾问在有效合规整改中的作用

律师作为涉案企业聘请的合规顾问,在协助企业合规整改中可以充当三种角色：一是检察机关启动合规考察程序的申请者;二是第三方组织监督考察的应对者;三是检察机关合规验收听证的答辩者。为帮助企业实现有效合规整改的目标,合规顾问应通过积极工作,满足检察机关启动合规考察程序的基本条件,针对涉案企业发生犯罪的内生性结构原因,对其治理结构、业务类型、经营方式、商业模式、企业文化等做出有针对性的调整,消除那些容易导致犯罪发生的因素。在此基础上,合规顾问可以根据企业的规模、业务范围、行业特点、合规风险等情况,帮助企业建立一种体系化的专项合规计划,争取达到有效预防相关违法犯罪行为再次发生的效果。     

基层金融机构在执行《反洗钱法》中的两个误区和建议

《中华人民共和国反洗钱法》自2007年1月1日起颁布施行已经进入第六个年头。这部法律的出台对于我国预防洗钱活动的发生;维护金融秩序稳定;遏制洗钱犯罪及相关犯罪,起到了积极和重要的作用。文章将对基层金融机构在贯彻落实这部法律中存在的问题和误区进行剖析,提出自己的意见和建议。     

美国刑事诉讼中的无害错误规则及其启示

在美国刑事诉讼中,原审法院的错误可以被分为两类:宪法性错误与制定法错误.对所有的制定法错误以及部分宪法性错误,审查法院可以适用无害错误规则进行审查与处理,从而在认定错误无害时,维持原审判决.在直接上诉程序中,对宪法性错误与制定法错误进行审查的标准,分别是Chapman标准与Kotteakos标准.对人身保护令程序中的审查标准,美国联邦法院目前尚没有形成共识.美国法院通过适用无害错误规则,更加强调探求刑事案件的事实真相,更为重视案件的实体正义.我国应当借鉴美国的经验,在刑事诉讼法中明确确立无害错误规则.     

Tooth hop variability in human and nonhuman bone: Effect on the estimation of saw blade TPI

Forensic research has demonstrated that tooth hop (TH) is a valuable measurement from saw-cut bones as it can be used to estimate teeth-per-inch (TPI) of a saw used in postmortem dismemberment cases. However, error rates for TPI estimation are still under development and knowledge of how bone tissue affects TH measurements remains unclear. The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of tissue variability through the use of different taxa on the accuracy and precision of TH measurements in the bone to estimate TPI of the blade. A total of 1766 TH measurements were analyzed from human, pig, and deer long bones cut by two 7 TPI saw blades of different tooth type. Fifty distance-between-teeth measurements before and after sawing were collected directly from each blade for comparison to bone-measured TH to assess potential effects of tooth wear on TH variability. ANOVA and F tests were used to compare mean TH and variance, respectively, by saw-species (i.e., crosscut-deer, rip-deer) and species groups (i.e., all deer, all pig), with significance determined at the p < 0.05 level. TH measurements were converted to usable TPI ranges, which would typically be presented in a forensic report. It is concluded that significant differences in TH (mm) do not necessarily reflect significant differences in associated TPI ranges of suspect blades. Forensic reports should report mean TPI ± 1.5–2.5 TPI while providing a sample size indicating number of TH measured rather than just number of cuts or cut surfaces examined.     

Mechanisms underlying response bias in deception detection

Abstract

The present research aims to explore the mechanisms underlying response bias in detection of deception. In addition to examining the predictive value of generalized communicative suspicion (GCS), age, and professional experience, the present approach also investigates the role of error weighting by testing the hypothesis that a greater concern about Misses is associated with a lie bias. In Study 1, we analyzed samples of (a) students, (b) police trainees, and (c) police officers. Results revealed an asymmetrical error weighting as the strongest predictor of response bias. Supporting our hypothesis, participants who were more concerned about False Alarms were particularly truth biased, whereas a lie bias was observed among those who were more concerned about Misses. In Study 2, we manipulated the error weighting in order to test its causal relation to response bias. Results again show the predictive value of asymmetrical error weighting for response bias in deception detection, and indicate that the effects of the manipulation are moderated by individuals' habitual error weighting.     

空间效应视角下中国省域碳排放总量的驱动因素分析

运用空间计量经济学模型实证分析中国省域碳排放的空间效应及驱动因素的结果显示,中国省域碳排放存在显著的空间自相关性和集群趋势,并主要集中在经济发达、人口密集和能源消费强度大的地区;能源消费强度、人口规模和人均GDP对碳排放总量影响显著,其中能源消费的影响最大;城市化、产业结构和技术创新对碳排放的影响不显著。该研究结论为我国城市化和产业结构升级进程中控制碳排放增量、国家和地方政府建立相应的碳减排鼓励政策和技术研发支持机制,以及各省域构建各具区域特色的低碳经济发展模式具有决策参考意义。     

证明理性化与刑事定罪标准之调整——基于防控司法错误的视角

近年来,一些学者主张我国应吸收借鉴西方国家的排除合理怀疑的证明标准,客观地讲,该证明标准在西方确实能最大限度地防控错判无辜的司法错误,同时还可以兼顾错放罪犯的司法错误,但却是以一套科学合理的证明机制为配套的。鉴于我国现实的制度语境,庭审证明标准能否松动不仅在于语词的改换,更在于语境的转换与配套证明机制之完善。     

纠错机制缺失与苏共衰败探析

苏共的衰败最具本体论意义的是关于苏联模式,这一模式的产生和形成具有历史的合理性,也有长期运行后形成的严重弊端,关键是它纠错机制的缺失。苏共领导之所以没能构建和完善相应的纠错机制,一方面是当政的主要领导者自身没有认识其弊端并加以改革;另一方面是继任者对苏联模式的固守而屡失改革机遇,一错再错使得各种矛盾激化,最终爆发了经济、政治和社会危机而沉疴难起。     

企业员工激励的个性化发展

企业员工的个性差异、需要差别、价值取向不同,决定了激励向个性化发展。员工激励应与其贡献挂钩、与其需要联系、与其个性符合、与其发展一致。激励个性化原则包括灵活性的激励手段、多样化的激励方法、弹性化的激励方式、具体化的激励措施、高效化的激励效果。