台湾的社会流动——基于跨时间段的比较分析

阶级和贫富分化问题是近年来台湾社会的一个热点问题。本文通过对代际和代内流动的分析以及对不同时间段社会流动的比较分析,发现台湾的代际流动性整体上较高,并没有形成明显的阶级边界,而代内流动在整体上呈封闭趋势,特别是向上流动的阻力越来越大,阶级的边界正在形成。台湾的阶级关系处于一种"半结构化"的状态。     

后代人权利理论批判

当今世界环境学科领域存在着具有广泛影响的“后代人权利”理论。但后代人权利论者用以支持后代人权利的各种证据都无法在逻辑上必然推出后代人享有权利的结论。后代人权利理论赖以成立的预设性前提也是虚构的客观事实。虽然近代以来，传统权利的主体范围确实有所扩展，但这种扩展并非是随意的。权利不可能扩展到后代人权利论者所说的“后代人”身上。环境义务是后代人权利理论的本质，也是后代人权利理论的正确出路和归宿。     

Routes and determinants of leaving home: the city of Gothenburg, 1915–1943

This paper deals with the home-leaving of young adults in Gothenburg, Sweden, in the period 1915–1943. We used individual-level panel data from population registers and poll-tax records, taking a competing risk design for the analysis of the determinants of leaving home to marry, or for non-familial living. We found a transitional, marriage-driven pattern of leaving home that neither fits the old context of life cycle service, nor the alternative modern routes out of the parental home into unmarried householdship. Young adults typically stayed at home until they married, although some moved out to temporary non-familial living first. Non-familial living consisted mainly of lodging in another household, but working outside it, which in a way was a forerunner of the modern pattern, in sharp contrast with the remnant of preindustrial times: the flow from rural areas into Gothenburg of teenage women immigrants to become residential domestic servants. Interestingly, we found that the main determinants of home-leaving in studies of modern-day populations were equally important in the population of Gothenburg in 1915–1943. For both young men and young women, having their own resources (employment, earnings) was positively associated with the likelihood of leaving the parental home. We also found clear gender differences. A higher level of human capital of the father was associated with later home-leaving to marry for sons, and earlier leaving for non-familial living for daughters. Lower levels of household income, or the presence of minor siblings or a widowed parent were push factors for non-familial living for daughters. We found no similar push factors for sons.     

La transmission intergénérationnelle de l’orientation idéologique en Suisse dans les familles à plusieurs générations

Ce texte est consacré à la transmission à court terme de l’orientation idéologique gauche‐ droite entre parents et enfants; il utilise les données du Panel suisse de ménages ( www.swisspanel.ch ), qui permet de mener des analyses dans les ménages à plusieurs générations. Les résultats confirment qu’il existe bien une transmission de l’orientation idéologique gauche‐droite entre parents et enfants, qui se fait différemment selon le sexe des parents et des enfants. A court terme, cette transmission se fait plus facilement dans les milieux éduqués, aisés et politisés, ce qui signifie paradoxalement que parmi les jeunes électeurs, ce sont ceux issus de milieux défavorisés ou non intéressés à la politique qui ont la probabilité la plus élevée de changer l’équilibre des forces politiques en présence.     

Adolescent Sexual Onset: An Intergenerational Analysis

Adolescents have begun to initiate sexual activity at increasingly early ages in the past few decades. Using a sample of 2,494 adolescents from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97), structural and parental process variables were examined in the prediction of sexual onset. Results indicated that the age at which youth initiate sexual intercourse is related to the structural characteristics of their grandmothers and mothers, as well as puberty, gender, and race. There is support for partial mediation of the effects of these grandmother characteristics via mother characteristics and parental process. Results are discussed within the framework of the life course perspective and provide support for the importance of previous generations in the explanation of adolescent sexual behavior. Implications for families and adolescents are also addressed. Katherine A. Johnson, is a doctoral student at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. Her research interests include the study of crime, gender, and high-risk youth using both qualitative and quantitative methodology. Kimberly A. Tyler, is an associate professor in the Department of Sociology at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. Her research interests include homelessness, child abuse and neglect, victimization, and high-risk behaviors among adolescents and youth.     

The Relationship Behavior Networks of Young Adults: A Test of the Intergenerational Transmission of Violence Hypothesis

The purpose of this study was to determine how negative relationship behaviors are structured in the semantic networks of young adults from violent versus nonviolent homes. Participants included 110 students (72 females and 38 males) from a large Midwestern university who were enrolled in an introductory psychology class. They completed a sorting task that involved relationship behavior stimuli. As hypothesized, differences were found in the composite sorting patterns, as represented by multidimensional scaling (MDS) solutions, for three different groups categorized by their family-of-origin violence history (i.e., nonvictimized by/did not witness parental violence, None; victimized only, Victim; and both witnessed/victimized, Both). Interpretations of the MDS solutions revealed different associations between violent and nonviolent conflict behaviors for victimized versus nonvictimized individuals, suggesting different semantic associations for conflict for individuals in the two groups. In a second set of analyses, separate solutions were generated for perpetrating and nonperpetrating individuals from violent families. Perpetrator and nonperpetrator solutions were also found to differ significantly. These findings suggest that relationship-specific semantic networks are associated with both past and current experiences with violence. One interpretation of these findings is that cognitive differences, generated in the family of origin, may serve to perpetuate a cycle of violence in subsequent romantic relationships.     

代际交换对中国农村老年人健康状况的影响:基于性别差异的纵向研究

本文利用西安交通大学2001-2003年“安徽省老年人生活福利状况”跟踪调查数据,采用Logistic模型,研究农村老年人代际交换对其健康状况影响的性别差异。本文发现,男性老人对子女的经济支持和情感交流有利于其健康状况,但子女对其生活照料的增加对其健康状况不利。而女性老人对子女生活照料的增加和情感交流对其健康状况有利,子女对其的经济支持则对其健康状况不利。这种基于老人需求的代际交换模式一方面说明子女对老人经济和生活照料的增加在一定程度上暗含了老人健康状况的恶化;另一方面则体现老人对子女的支持和帮助可能得到子女的回馈和补偿,有利于其健康状况。     

信息技术对旅游统计的影响分析

现代信息技术实现了海量信息的低成本高速传播 ,为旅游业提供了全新的信息传播和处理手段 ,对旅游统计产生了深远的影响。只有适应市场变化 ,抓住信息技术革命的机遇 ,改进旅游统计硬件设备 ,开发旅游统计应用软件 ,建立现代化的旅游统计信息系统 ,培养高素质的旅游统计人才 ,才能发挥旅游统计的信息服务功能 ,解决旅游统计信息有效供给短缺的问题 ,实现信息资源共享     

危机管理回路分析

近年来自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生和社会安全等领域的危机事件频繁发生,我国似乎正处于一个危机四伏、危机四起的时代。面对危机,危机管理部门总是疲于应付,却不能有效应对,似乎又经历着"危机管理的危机"。通过对危机管理过程进行分析研究,旨在建立科学合理、运转高效、制度化、系统化的危机管理组织和业务流程,在整个危机管理活动中形成一种环形危机信息传导反馈机制,以及协调高效运转的危机管理回路。     

THE APPLE DOESN'T FALL FAR FROM THE TREE (OR DOES IT?): INTERGENERATIONAL PATTERNS OF ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR—THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY 2008 SUTHERLAND ADDRESS*

There is a growing literature on intergenerational studies of antisocial behavior and a growing understanding of the unique contributions they are likely to make. At the same time, the field has yet to agree on core design features for intergenerational study. In this article, I propose a set of defining design elements that all intergenerational studies should meet and I discuss the advantages of these studies for enhancing our understanding of the onset and course of delinquent careers. I then use data from the ongoing Rochester Intergenerational Study to illustrate these points and the potential yield of intergenerational studies. In particular, I examine intergenerational continuities in antisocial behavior and school disengagement, test the cycle of violence hypothesis to see whether a history of maltreatment increases the likelihood of perpetration of maltreatment, and estimate a structural equation model to help identify mediating pathways that link parents and children with respect to antisocial behavior.