What price access to the open seas? The geopolitics of oil and gas transmission from the Trans-Caspian republics

In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union was the world's largest hydrocarbon producer. The landmass over which these resources are distributed is vast and the reserves mostly landlocked. To convey these hydrocarbons to refineries and to market, the Soviets constructed the largest integrated pipeline networks in the world. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, new competing national interests have produced tensions over these energy resources and transmission corridors, with economically detrimental and often irrational consequences. In Central Asia, the post-Soviet Republics of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan produce significant amounts of hydrocarbons and export their oil and gas to or through Russian Federation territory. Russian government policy aims to continue exercising political control over these resources and to maximize Moscow's share of profits from their export. This paper examines oil and gas transmission issues in Central Asia, against a backdrop of emerging new relationships between the Russian Federation and the three post-Soviet republics, the resurgent strategic competition between Russia and the United States, China's developing power base in the region and Iran's potentially key geographic position for channelling Caspian energy supplies towards the Persian Gulf.     

防止贫困代际传递——中国反贫新目标

在中国目前存在的两千多万贫困人口中,一些家庭的贫困已经陷入代际传递怪圈。因此,需要在反贫困战略上作出适当调整。“十一五”规划中明确提出“防止贫困代际传递”问题的新目标,是中国反贫困战略调整中的新动向。     

Intergenerational income mobility in Gothenburg,Sweden, 1925–1958, before the rise of the welfare state

This paper investigates intergenerational mobility at the household level by using tax data for the city of Gothenburg, Sweden for two periods, 1925–1947 and 1936–1958, before the rise of the welfare state. Young households (selected persons under 18) are followed and income mobility (defined as changes in household disposable equivalent income) is followed across generations. In addition, socioeconomic mobility (defined as changes in the socioeconomic status of household head) is followed across generations. These two approaches of measuring mobility will tell us to what extent sons and daughters follow in their fathers' footsteps before the rise of the welfare state in Sweden. The results indicate significant intergenerational income mobility for both periods, while the period from 1925–1947 seems to be more mobile. In addition, socioeconomic mobility increased during the last period, 1936–1958. Hence, even before the rise of the welfare state, Sweden had high intergenerational income mobility.     

运输毒品罪概念及不同行为类型的分析

运输毒品罪虽然与走私、制造、贩卖毒品罪相提并论,但是,相对于走私、制造、贩卖毒品罪来说,运输毒品罪行为类型比较多,针对其不同的六种行为类型应当进行不同的定罪与量刑的分析,这能使运输毒品罪的定罪量刑真正做到合理、合法、合情。     

对中国文化传播理论体系的构建前瞻

西方超级媒体主导、控制了全球的传播格局,这既不利于世界正确地解读中国,也不利于中国正确地解读世界。误读与被误读造成东西方文化相互传播的碰撞。要改变不对称的东西方文化传播格局,中国需要提升软实力以谋求在全球传播体系中和平崛起。而对于文化传播持续发展的前瞻性及构建中国文化传播理论体系的探讨不能长期停留在自发状态,中国传媒应积极推动文化传播理论系统化的进程。     

艺术存在于传播中熵与冗余的平衡

从对艺术形态的界定中,可以得出艺术是在传播中张扬其生命力的结论。艺术形态的存在正在于散播、传达、表现。传播使欣赏者感受并可能感同到艺术的“放射波”。欣赏者在传播中被艺术召唤,从而追求艺术。艺术之动在于传播,传播使艺术得生得长,并富于魅力和感召力。在对传播概念的把握过程中,可以寻求关于艺术传播的物质内容。即,信息是传播的必然内容。作为传播形态的一种,艺术传播也不例外。借助传播学信息理论中的熵和冗余的概念,对艺术传播做逐一分析,我们发现:艺术作为有别于其他自然科学和社会科学的存在,以它独有的方式打破了科学规律,熵值决定传播程度的规律。对于非科学的艺术而言,不仅熵影响艺术的传播程度,冗余也在影响艺术传播程度。传播是艺术得以发生存在的环境和系统。熵与冗余的平衡使艺术在传播中得以存在和张扬。     

跨文明传播的不对称性

当今世界的信息传播以跨文明为主要特征。这种跨文明的传播以不同文明的异质性冲突为背景,存在着传播霸权、不对称传播和只拿来不送出等问题。解决的途径除依靠文明内部经济文化的发展,还必须依赖于跨文明研究与对话,寻求不同文明之间的互补与共存。     

论信息网络传播权的刑法保护——以知识产权犯罪司法解释为切入点

根据我国著作权立法中复制发行权和信息网络传播权的构成,可以认定,“复制发行”与“信息网络传播”行为必然是互不包容的两类行为,两高的司法解释将“信息网络传播”行为视为著作权罪中的“复制发行”行为,属于类推解释。类推解释使罪刑法定原则在刑法司法解释领域的贯彻面临困境,刑法司法解释应避免类推制度借类推解释还魂的现象。     

The effects of marital breakdown on offending: results from a prospective longitudinal survey of males

Abstract

We examined the factors that predicted marital separation in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, which is a prospective longitudinal survey of 411 London males. We found that dishonesty, having a wife with a conviction(s), convictions, a poor relationship with parents, no exams passed, unprotected sex and having a shotgun marriage predicted marital breakdown. Males from broken homes due to marital conflict had a moderate risk of suffering marital breakdown themselves but the effect was mediated by having conviction(s). An analysis in which separated men were matched with controls on age at marriage, prior convictions and a propensity score predicting the likelihood of separation showed that a man's convictions increased after becoming separated. However, if a man formed a new intimate relationship, the increase in convictions after separation was reduced.