Survival models of recidivism among juvenile delinquents

Among juveniles, the probability of recidivism has a curvilinear relationship to age. Rates of reoffending do not simply increase or decrease with age, but rather, they increase as a function of age up to a certain point of peak activity and decrease with increasing age thereafter. Because of this, the forms of recidivism functions between cohorts of widely varying ages will differ considerably. This renders inapplicable one model for the analysis of recidivism rates which assumes proportional hazards (Cox proportional hazards regression models). Appropriate models will posit curved nonmonotonic hazard functions. This paper compares fits of the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal models to recidivism data collected on samples of chronic juvenile offenders and finds generally closer estimation of the recidivism functions using the latter model. Implications for the development of models of recidivism are discussed.     

Juvenile Crime Trends in Post-War Europe

In the literature, two models - routine activity and social control - are most often used in attempts to account for a continuous upward trend in the number of juvenile offenders during the post-war period. In Sweden, contrary to what we might expect given these models, the number of juvenile offenders has been stable, and may even have decreased, over the last 25 years. This article will present an analysis of juvenile crime trends in West European countries during the post-war period (1950-1995). A sensible way to begin a comparative study is to take advantage of the analyses already carried out by researchers in the relevant countries. Besides the official crime statistics this study also uses alternative statistics, that is, self-report studies and victim surveys. An obvious advantage with these surveys is that they are independent of the relevant country's judicial system and official statistics. The availability of data played an important part in the choice of countries to be included. In addition, contacts were established with researchers and research centres in most countries covered by the study.     

Juvenile Justice and the 'Shift to the Left'

The notion of 'shift' is used as a symbol for procedure in criminal cases, understood as a sequence of legal interferences by the police, the prosecution and by proceedings in court. If this sequence is symbolised by a horizontal line, the procedural stages move from left to right. But the distribution of competences has recently lost its prior balance, due to 'modern' crime and society: The functions of the judge appear reduced, whereas the range of action of the prosecution has widened; also the police has gained more influence. On the symbolic line of procedural stages this all makes for a 'shift to the left'. This paper deals with the question as to whether juvenile justice is undergoing the same changes. The first answer is 'yes', based on the enlarged diversionary competence of prosecutors and the police. From a different perspective, however, juvenile offending is a 'natural' phenomenon connected with young age, which a priori places juvenile justice on a 'left' position of the imagined line. A plea is made for this juvenile justice to stick to its inherent concern for young offenders individually and not to sacrifice this to collective interests in public order and safety.     

The Attitudes Towards Dating Violence Scales: Development and Initial Validation

This study describes the development and validation of three Attitudes Towards Male Dating Violence (AMDV) Scales and three Attitudes Towards Female Dating Violence (AFDV) Scales. These scales measure attitudes toward use of psychological, physical, and sexual dating violence, respectively, by boys and by girls. Eight hundred twenty-three students from grades 7, 9, and 11 participated in the validation study. All six scales have good internal consistencies. As predicted, students were more accepting of girls' use of violence than of boys' use of violence, and boys were more accepting of violence than were girls. The six scales were positively correlated with traditional attitudes toward gender roles and with each other, providing evidence for their construct validity. Higher scores on the AMDV Scales were related to boys' past use of violence in dating relationships and to their having aggressive friends, supporting their criterion-related validity. Higher scores on the AFDV Scales were associated with girls' past use of dating violence but not with their having aggressive friends, providing partial support for their criterion-related validity. Singly or in combination, the Attitudes Towards Dating Violence Scales can be used to increase our understanding of the development and maintenance of violence-supportive attitudes in adolescents of all ages.     

Facilitating Violence: A Comparison of Gang-Motivated, Gang-Affiliated, and Nongang Youth Homicides

It is well established that gangs facilitate violent offending by members,but the mechanisms by which that facilitation occurs remain unclear. Gangsmay promote violence indirectly by facilitating members' access to riskysituations such as drug markets or directly through gang functions such asturf defense. We explore alternative modes of facilitation in a comparisonof gang-affiliated homicides (which involve gang members but do not resultfrom gang activity), gang-motivated homicides (which result from gangactivity), and nongang youth homicides in St. Louis. We find importantdifferences as well as similarities in the time trends and eventcharacteristic of the two types of gang homicide; in key respects thegang-affiliated homicides more closely resemble the nongang events. Thegang-motivated events exhibit a somewhat distinctive spatial patterning,as might be expected from their connection to turf conflicts. However, allthree homicide types are highly concentrated in racially isolated,disadvantaged neighborhoods, which remain the fundamental socialfacilitators of both gang and nongang violence.     

The Overrepresentation of Juvenile Crime Proportions in Robbery Clearance Statistics

Many, especially casual observers, interpret juvenile arrest statistics to bea measure of crime committed by juveniles. Others argue that clearancestatistics are a more representative index of the relative responsibility ofjuveniles. Using data from the FBI's National Incident-Based ReportingSystem, this paper explores the likelihoods of arrests for juvenile andadult robbery offenders. The findings show that juvenile robbery suspectsare 23% more likely to be arrested than adults, and 32% more likely aftercontrolling for other incident characteristics. Analyses also found anincreased likelihood of arrest in robbery incidents in which (1) the victimwas a juvenile, a female, or white; (2) the offender was white or female;and (3) the victim was injured. The presence of a weapon was not relatedto the likelihood of arrest. The differential influences of specificincident characteristics on the likelihood of arrest for juveniles andadults highlight the underlying biases of law enforcement statistics inassessing the juvenile component of crime.     

Connecting the dots: Crime rates and criminal justice evaluation research

The National Research Council’s report on evaluating anticrime programs contains sensible suggestions for improving evaluation research in criminal justice but neglects the important role of substantive theory in linking evaluations of anticrime initiatives to variation in crime rates across time and place. A working knowledge of crime rates is essential for designing and evaluating anticrime programs. This essay calls for the development of a policy evaluation infrastructure that would support the continuous monitoring of crime rates, generate knowledge of crime-producing conditions, and link evaluation research findings to one another and to expected policy outcomes, notably crime reduction.

Narratives of the Past and Present: Young Refugees' Construction of a Family Identity in Exile

Little attention has been given to the ‘refugee experience’of children who follow their parents in escaping violence. Thisstudy examines how the experiences of violence become importantevents in the lives of a group of young refugees who were bornin the Middle East, but escaped with their parents to Denmarkten years ago. On the basis of a narrative analysis the studyshows that the adolescents' experience of being a refugee isgreatly influenced by the stories of the past narrated aboutthe family, and the internal relations and conflicts withinthe families. Adolescent refugees who have grown up with violencein their family relations experience greater difficulties increating new homes in exile than adolescents whose memoriesof violence are connected with a narrative of the historicalpersecution and suffering of their family and people.     

Working together: local and global imperatives for women in Mongolia

Mongolia is a country in transition. Domestic violence has just begun to reach the public and political agenda, due in large part to the activism and lobbying of women’s groups within Mongolia. State attention to domestic violence accords with Mongolia’s declared democratic and human rights agendas which are driven by political and economic shifts within society, the influence of trans-national feminism and the activities of two of the most influential non-governmental organisations (NGOs), each of which focus on violence against women. Local, feminist campaigning intersects with the global imperatives of treaty obligations and has resulted in the introduction of new legislation on domestic violence in 2004. Since then it has become apparent that there is a gap between the rhetoric of the law the reality of implementation. Women’s groups are battling this lack of political will to effectively implement changes.

Juvenile sex offenders: a complex population

Individuals who engage in sexual offending behavior represent a heterogeneous population. Recent research has found some success in categorizing sexual offenders based on a number of variables, particularly the type of victim. For example, differences have been found between those offenders who victimize adults when compared with those who victimize children. However, the research in this area has been conducted predominantly with adult samples. As the adult sex offender literature has progressed, it has become evident that risk assessment, treatment effectiveness, and risk management are dependent on such offender characteristics. Unfortunately, the relevance to juveniles of characteristics deemed to be important with adult sex offenders is limited due to the complexity of developmental processes, particularly with respect to mental disorders and personality formation. As such, the formulation and implementation of treatment and risk management strategies that will be effective with juvenile sex offenders are challenging. The goal of this paper is to review some of the complexities inherent in the juvenile sex offender population by focusing on specific areas of complication, including: classification systems, comorbid paraphilias and other mental illnesses, and maladaptive personality traits.