Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

A More Turbulent and Troubled World

The year 2016 marked the 25th anniversary of the end of the Cold War and the 15th anniversary of the 9/11 attack.Though international relations are constantly adjusted,the world is by no means more stable and orderly.International order reshaping triggered by the 2008 financial crisis is deepening,with chaos of various kinds popping up here and there.In the sociopolitical field,the "Trump phenomenon" and Brexit indicate serious weakening of the authority of traditional political systems and elites.In major country relations and international security,the world is witnessing the rise of emerging countries and the and fall of the West,fiercer US-Russia and Sino-US wrestling of strategic significance,and greater global and regional security risks.In global governance,while adjustment of UN-centered global governance is laboring along,national rivalries touch core issues,making global governance more urgent.     

Nation-building projects through new capitals: from St. Petersburg to Yerevan and Astana

The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive explanation for the reasons behind governments’ decisions to relocate and build new capital cities. The process of capital-building is not a mere phenomenon of urbanization; rather it is a process of “text inventing” for nation-building projects. To emphasize implications for identity behind city constructions, the paper will discuss urbanization practices of Soviet Yerevan and post-Soviet Astana. However, to verify the validity and generalizability of the proposed argument, the article will also briefly provide historical analysis of relocation of capitals from Moscow to St. Petersburg, and from Istanbul to Ankara. The reconstruction of the capital of Soviet Armenia, Yerevan, in the 1920s is important in understanding the role of utopias in initiating identity transformations. The central conceptual premise of the article is Samuel Huntington’s theoretical concept of a “torn country” and the redefinition of civilizational identity. One reason capitals have been relocated and new capitals have been built throughout history is a need to initiate a long-term transformation of identity.     

关于“一国两制”台湾模式的新构想

在现行“一国两制”构想用来解决台湾问题遇到阻力的情况下,本文深挖国家结构形式的理论资源,提出用“一国两制”来解决台湾问题的新构想。新构想在“一个中国”的前提下,借鉴联邦主义的某些做法,以期建构一个两岸同胞均能接受的国家统一模式。该构想扩大了“一国两制”的包容量,增强了“一国两制”的适用性,具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

当前我国地方政府发行公债的必要性分析——基于政府职能、现实财政收支和代际公平的视角

开放并加强地方政府发债管理是学界多年所关注的改革大计,随着财政部起草的有关加强地方政府债务管理的方案已提交国务院待批,我国允许地方政府发行公债将是大势所趋.从政府职能、现实财政收支和代际公平三个视角对我国地方政府发行公债的必要性进行分析不难发现,地方政府职能重要性的进一步凸显、现行的财政体制改革对于匹配财力与事权效应的不显著、以及基础设施建设中存在的"代际不公平"的问题,都对我国地方政府发行公债提出了紧急而迫切的要求.     

试论中国特色社会主义的实践特色

中国特色社会主义具有鲜明的实践特色、理论特色、民族特色和时代特色。其中,实践特色是中国特色社会主义的首要特色,是深刻理解中国特色社会主义的关键和核心。中国特色社会主义的实践特色主要表现为以发展生产力作为根本任务,以改革开放作为根本动力,以四项基本原则作为根本保证,以民康物阜、民强国富作为根本目标等四个方面。     

昆明地区复方地芬诺酯片滥用情况分析

目的:了解昆明地区复方地芬诺酯片的滥用情况。方法:自行设计调查表,对2006年1月-2006年5月入所发现的复方地芬诺酯片滥用者进行调查。结果:在2152例海洛因滥用者中共发现复方地芬诺酯片滥用者208例,占9.67%。在208例复方地芬诺酯片滥用者中,男162例,占77.88%,女46例,占22.12%;年龄17-50(33.5±s6.2)a;婚姻状况:未婚134例,占64.42%,同居24例,占11.54%,已婚29例,占13.94%,离异21例,占10.10%;文化程度:小学84例,占40.38%,初中105例,占50.48%,高中及以上19例,占9.13%;职业:无业174例,占83.65%,个体15例,占7.21%,驾驶员8例,占3.85%,服务人员5例,占2.40%,其他6例,占2.88%。滥用复方地芬诺酯片的主要方式:口服(100%);初始滥用的主要原因:"戒毒"(49.04%),目前滥用的主要原因:"替代海洛因"(46.63%);主要来源:药店(83.66%)和小诊所(47.52%);有19例(9.13%)曾发生过滥用复方地芬诺酯片急性中毒。结论:昆明地区药物滥用者中出现复方地芬诺酯片滥用情况;复方地芬诺酯片容易获得;滥用的主要原因与海洛因滥用有关;希望有关部门予以重视。     

西安城市发展带动农村发展战略问题探析

近年来,西安农村经济社会虽有了较大改善,但城乡发展之间的差距仍是一个不可回避的突出问题。要实施城市带动农村发展战略,必须从统筹城乡发展和城乡互动式良性协调发展上去考虑,按照城乡联动的社会系统工程规划,积极探索城市对农村建设的多种带动方式,以产业为纽带,实现城乡经济共同发展。     

论刑事被害人国家补偿制度

刑事被害人国家补偿制度是指国家对遭受犯罪行为侵害而又没有得到充分赔偿的被害人或其近亲属．通过法律程序给予一定补偿的制度。我国应当在探讨被害人国家补偿制度的制度发展史、理论依据和功能价值等问题的基础上，借鉴国外立法经验构建中国特色刑事被害人国家补偿制度。     

浅析公民基本道德规范

“爱国守法、明礼诚信、团结友善、勤俭自强、敬业奉献”是公民的基本道德规范。爱国是道德的灵魂．守法是道德的后盾．明礼是道德的窗口,诚信是道德的支柱．团结是道德的品格,友善是道德的标准,勤俭是道德的传统,自强是道德的追求,敬业是道德的表现,奉献是道德的境界。