中国——东盟投资自由化进程中的国民待遇问题探析

投资自由化是中国——东盟自由贸易区继贸易自由化之后一个更加深入和复杂的问题。文章基于《中国——东盟全面经济合作框架协议》、《中国——东盟全面经济合作框架协议投资协议》等基本法律文件,结合经济全球化的发展趋势和中国、东盟成员国吸引外国直接投资的相关实践,就外资待遇标准中的国民待遇作集中分析,以期明晰中国——东盟投资自由化发展方向和未来可能取得的成果。     

Simulated foreign policy exchanges: A formal theory of foreign policy interaction (part II)

This article presents the underlying rationale for a theory of foreign policy dynamics, and is the second part of a two‐part series which specifies a theoretical perspective for explaining the exchanges between nations. The task of the first paper was to discuss the substantive thrust of the research, and to give a view of the Monte Carlo simulation which lies at its core. The theory deals with the relevance of such concepts as reciprocity, uncertainty, third party effects, bureaucratic politics and domestic events for explaining foreign policy. This article provides the axioms which structure our theory and formal theorems that follow from these axioms.     

Breaching the levee,waiting for the flood. Testing beliefs about the internationalization of securities markets

Abstract

In the 1970s and 1980s, the three major securities markets in New York, London, and Tokyo underwent significant regulatory shifts that lowered national barriers to entry and liberalized the markets. Popular explanations point toward technologies, economic efficiencies, foreign policy pressures, the removal of controls on international capital flows, or international competition as unleashing forces promoting liberalization and breaching the regulatory levees. Such explanations generate expectations about behavior once the international pressures are unleashed. Significant changes in overseas participants' market behavior should be observable. International competitive pressures should produce convergence in regulatory and transaction costs across markets upon one of two equilibriums—one by competitive deregulations or another by harmonization through agreement. Empirical tests produce results inconsistent with such expectations. Foreign participation does increase following the breach in the regulatory levees, but the unleashed demand cannot be described as a flood. Observable measures of market dynamics and transaction costs remain distinctive. The inconsistencies between results and expectations raise questions about explanations that emphasize increasing interdependence and international pressures as driving domestic political and economic changes.     

The ASEAN-China Investment Agreement: A regionalization of China��s BITs

This paper analyzes the provisions of the Agreement on Investment of the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (the “ASEAN”), especially those on the scope of application, national treatment, Most Favored Nation (MFN) treatment, expropriation, and investor-state dispute resolution. The paper then compares the new agreement with other international investment agreements concluded by China or ASEAN. In comparison with existing Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) between China and individual ASEAN member states, there are significant changes in the Investment Agreement which provides a higher standard of investment protection. Such an investment protection is common in the new generation of Chinese BITs, which were signed by China since 2000. However, unlike some other investment agreements in free trade arrangements, the Investment Agreement rarely touches upon the investment liberalization, although the Framework Agreement of ASEAN-China FTA provides for creating a liberal investment regime. This paper concludes that negotiating an investment agreement in China’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) is regarded as an opportunity to update its old BITs, but China is not yet prepared to undertake investment liberalization in its FTAs. The ASEAN-China Investment Agreement is, rather, an extension of China’s BITs at the regional level, which is a demonstration of China’s growing influence at this level.     

My Country,My Country,directed by Laura Poitras,produced by Jocelyn Glatzer and Laura Poitras Iraq in Fragments,directed by James Longley,produced by John Sinno and James Longley

A new form of “entertaining news,” accessed by most through television, has become a privileged domain of politics for the first time in countries “beyond the West” in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. What are the political consequences of this development: What is the relationship between media and politics in these regions? We answer these questions through a case study of India, the world's largest democracy, where two decades of media expansion and liberalization have yielded the largest number of commercial television news outlets in the world. We show why prevailing theories of media privatization and commercialization cannot account for the distinctive architecture of media systems in places like India. In this article, we first provide an overview of the historical and contemporary dynamics of media liberalization in India and the challenges that this poses to existing models and typologies of the media-politics relationship. We then present a new typology of media systems and a theoretical framework for studying the relationship between television news and democratic politics in India, and by extension in the global South. In the concluding section, we reflect on the broader comparative insights of the essay and discuss directions for future research. We believe that our alternative comparative framework captures more meaningfully the diversity and complexity of emerging media systems and their relationships to democratic practice in these regions.     

Questioning the Hegemony of the Nation State in Belarus: Production of Intellectual Discourses as Production of Resources∗

The bulk of scholarly literature views nationalism as harmful to democratic transition. Yet Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan indirectly suggest that nationalism may benefit democratization. This study shows that under the right conditions nationalism can benefit democratic transition. Building on the typology of Linz and Stepan and the liberal nationalism tradition of Yael Tamir and David Miller, this study examines the transitions in Estonia and Ukraine. It introduces an important layer, the multinational federal state, into the typologies developed by Linz and Stepan to show that nationalism can prove a useful political tool of mobilization in a multiethnic setting.     

Explaining Myanmar's regime transition: the periphery is central

In 2010, Myanmar (Burma) held its first elections after 22?years of direct military rule. Few compelling explanations for this regime transition have emerged. This article critiques popular accounts and potential explanations generated by theories of authoritarian “regime breakdown” and “regime maintenance”. It returns instead to the classical literature on military intervention and withdrawal. Military regimes, when not terminated by internal factionalism or external unrest, typically liberalize once they feel they have sufficiently addressed the crises that prompted their seizure of power. This was the case in Myanmar. The military intervened for fear that political unrest and ethnic-minority separatist insurgencies would destroy Myanmar's always-fragile territorial integrity and sovereignty. Far from suddenly liberalizing in 2010, the regime sought to create a “disciplined democracy” to safeguard its preferred social and political order twice before, but was thwarted by societal opposition. Its success in 2010 stemmed from a strategy of coercive state-building and economic incorporation via “ceasefire capitalism”, which weakened and co-opted much of the opposition. Having altered the balance of forces in its favour, the regime felt sufficiently confident to impose its preferred settlement. However, the transition neither reflected total “victory” for the military nor secured a genuine or lasting peace.     

论东南亚贸易自由化与经济增长

战后,东南亚国家的贸易政策大致经历了三个阶段。80年代末90年代初开始,各国加快了贸易自由化的步伐。各国大幅降低关税水平,减少非关税壁垒,使之关税水平和结构呈现新的变化。东南亚国家贸易自由化推动了进出口贸易规模的扩大,提升了货物与服务的世界市场占有率,促进了产业部门尤其是制造业的出口贸易、劳动生产率和最终收入的增长,从而成为国内经济增长的引擎。在世界性和区域性贸易自由化加速发展的背景下,东南亚国家贸易自由化的进程将有所加快。     

The Laffer effects of a program of deregulation cum detaxation: the Italian reform of labour contracts in the period 1997–2001

We examine the Laffer effects of the policy of social security tax reduction cum partial deregulation of labour market undertaken in Italy in the period 1997–2001. Laffer effects of tax cut are generally delayed and governments responsible of the reform cannot benefit from the resulting increased revenues when in office. Our empirical findings show that tax cuts combined with policies of liberalization determine almost immediate Laffer effects. In terms of coherent supply-side political programs, the effects of the two measures are not separable. Reflection on our results may broaden the scope of the supply-side policies of deregulation and detaxation.

关于ＷＴＯ协定与外资国民待遇的若干思考

综观ＷＴＯ协定中的有关条款,尽管其在许多方面对国民待遇原则有了重在发展,但各领域的发燕尾服很不平衡,特别是在国际直接投资领域,国民待遇问题实际上还没有被ＷＴＯ提上议程,本认为,即使在ＷＴＯ体制下,有条件的国民待遇仍具有不可改变的属性。