Determining Shoe Length from Partial Shoeprints

The length of a shoe has significant value in reflecting characteristics of the owner, and thereby, it can help in tracking suspects in criminal cases. However, the shoeprints left at a crime scene are often incomplete, resulting in difficulties in assessing shoe length. To find a way to estimate the shoe length from a partial shoeprint, 109 shoes with different sizes and general patterns were collected, and their prints were lifted using magnetic powder. Four feature points were defined on a shoeprint, and the longest distance between the feature points was defined as shoe length. Using linear, quadratic, and cubic regression analyses, a total of 15 equations were obtained between the shoe length and the other distances between the feature points. Out of these, the five most accurate equations were selected as the optimal equation. The verified test, including another 18 pairs of shoes, showed an average error of equations between 0.591 cm and 0.732 cm. The equations were also applied in two practical cases, resulting in good accuracy. The study demonstrates that shoe length could be determined from partial shoeprints through the proven equations.     

ECFA对两岸贸易与台湾经济增长的影响研究——基于联立方程组模型的模拟分析

本文构建了包含消费、投资、出口和国民收入恒等式在内的联立方程组模型,选取1980—2008年的时间序列数据,采用二阶段最小二乘法考察了两岸贸易对台湾经济增长的影响。结果显示,两岸贸易对台湾经济具有较强的拉动作用,并且台湾自大陆进口能够＂创造需求＂,其对台湾经济增长的拉动作用强于台湾对大陆出口。在此基础上,以2008年为模拟基期,以2013年为模拟期,模拟了ECFA早期收获清单的实施对两岸贸易及台湾经济增长的影响。模拟结果显示,ECFA早期收获清单的实施无论对两岸贸易还是整个台湾经济都具有较为显著的增长效应。     

Differentiation of Cosmetic Foundation Creams Using Attenuated Total Reflection Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy: A Rapid and NonDestructive Approach in Trace Evidence Analysis

Cosmetic foundation creams are encountered as evidentiary material in criminal investigations, particularly in cases related to sexual and physical assault against women. Analyzing foundation cream exhibit is a challenging task as the exhibit is recovered in trace quantity with similar hue. In the present study, ATR FTIR spectroscopy which is a rapid, nondestructive, sensitive, reliable, and safe alternative to other analytical techniques has been used to differentiate 31 cosmetic foundation creams belonging to 23 different brands supported by chemometric methods such as principal component analysis (PCA) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). The discriminating power of visual analysis is found to be 98.0%, while PCA and LDA further increased the discriminating power to 99.3% and 100%, respectively. The blind test is conducted with three unknown samples (pretended to be unknown to the analyst), which were correctly linked with their respective source. Further, the effect of substrate such as tissue paper (dry and wet) and white cotton cloth during sample analysis are also examined to simulate the actual forensic casework conditions. The stains on substrates could be identified and linked to its parent product as well. The reported method provides significant results for the differentiation of cosmetic foundation creams.     

Why Low-Income Households Become Unstably Housed: Evidence From the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

ABSTRACT

Because of a severe shortage of affordable housing in the United States, an increasing number of low-income households suffer from housing instability. However, little evidence exists as to why they experienced housing instability, although they were stably housed at other times. By applying hybrid models to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data, this study estimates the effects of potential household-level predictors on the likelihood of experiencing housing instability. The results show that changes in family employment structure, job insecurity, automobile ownership, and the number of adult family members within a household correlate with housing instability after controlling for changes in household income and housing costs. Moreover, I find that households with children are particularly vulnerable to housing instability. These results contribute to identifying valid household-level predictors of housing instability and developing preventive policy interventions that help unsubsidized low-income households achieve housing stability.     

Party systems in Latin America: institutionalization,decay, and collapse,edited by Scott Mainwaring

Although coming of age under a totalitarian regime drastically reduces the chances of acquiring democratic values or supporting democracy, factors other than the formal nature of the political regime shape political values as well. The informal structure of the political regime, which consists of rules developed in political practice and economic and human development, may shape individual values and attitudes and produce different attitudes towards democracy in different totalitarian regimes. This article focuses on the effect of early socialization on the support for democracy among citizens who have been ruled under two different non-democratic regimes. We compare the dynamics in Spain and Romania during the post-totalitarian period with the aim of identifying how coming of age operated in these two different totalitarian regimes and how each type of non-democratic regime affected the legitimacy of the new democratic rule. Using survey data from various sources (Standard Eurobarometer, Central and Eastern Eurobarometer and Candidate Countries Eurobarometer) that allow both longitudinal and cross-sectional comparisons, we decompose the social change in support for democracy over the post-totalitarian period in both countries using cross-classified fixed effects models. The analyses demonstrate the different effects of socialization on support for democracy in these two different totalitarian contexts.     

西南地区成人男性颅骨的相关回归分析

目的研究颅骨部分测量指标间的相关性,以期建立在对破损颅骨进行颅骨面貌复原时,利用尚存指标推断缺失指标的方法。方法用人体骨骼测量仪对41个男性颅骨的颅长、颅宽、颅高等14个指标进行测量,将测量值输入SPSS统计软件,找出相关性好的指标,建立各指标间相互推断的回归方程。结果部分测量指标间呈中度以上相关,应用逐步回归的方法得出回归方程24个,方差检验均具统计学意义(P<0.01)。结论本研究所建立的回归方程可为法医人类学和考古人类学的颅骨修复提供备选方法。     

文件形成时间鉴定的统计学方法初探

文件形成时间的鉴定问题一直是文书鉴定领域最具争议和挑战的疑难问题．尤其是如何利用文件要素与时间的关系,定量分析判断文件的形成时间。通过对一起印章印文盖印时间鉴定的实际案例,探讨了如何运用统计学方法定量分析印章印文阶段性特征中的定量特征与印文盖印时间之间关系,为印章印文盖印时鉴定提供一种定量分析的方法,也为如何进一步运用统计学方法定量分析文件形成时间的类似问题提供了一种研究思路。     

What Drives Intermediate Local Governments’ Spending Efficiency: The Case of French Départements

The restructuring of the allocation of governmental competencies in France has increased the importance of subnational governments by transferring additional tasks. We analyse the efficiency of public spending on the intermediate government level for the 96 départements in metropolitan France in 2008. Spending efficiency is measured using Data Envelopment Analysis. Results indicate significant room for improvement and we detect an average spending inefficiency of 12%. To explain efficiency, a bootstrapped truncated regression is applied. The second-stage regression shows that efficiency is also determined by exogenous factors and identifies the distance to the national capital, inhabitants’ income and the share of inhabitants older than 65 as significant determinants of efficiency.     

福柯《规训与惩罚》的理论基础与终极关怀

福柯其人其思想都极为独特。他经常以独特的思维关注主流学术不屑谈及的领域,譬如疯癫、疾病、罪犯与性。《规训与惩罚》是福柯在谱系学历史观的支撑下写就的一部惩罚史,以此解构线性历史观所支撑的主流视域对惩罚史的解读,最终体现了其对现代人自由问题的关注。     

中国汉族成人胸骨多项测量值与身高关系的研究

目的 研究中国汉族成人胸骨多项测量值与身高的关系,建立以胸骨推算身高的方法。方法 测量135例(男100,女35)已知身高的中国汉族成年人干燥胸骨的全长、柄长、体长、柄最大宽、柄最小宽、体最大宽、体最大厚、柄厚、柄最大厚9项指标,采用多元逐步回归分析的方法,分别求出由男性(分年龄组)和女性胸骨的多项测量值推算身高的多元回归方程式。结果 所建立的4个男性(分年龄组)和1个女性胸骨推算身高的多元回归方程式,其复相关系数(R)在0.6237～0.7350之间,标准差(s)在4.5720—7.0348之间。结论 根据人体胸骨的多项测量值可以推算其身高,准确性略低于四肢长骨的同类推算;相同身高组的男女性胸骨多项测量值均存在明显的性别差异,胸骨柄长不能作为单因素推算身高的测量指标。