数字经济时代的全球数据安全治理与中国策略

进入数字经济时代以来,日益严峻的数据安全风险与变幻莫测的国际形势交织叠加,各国围绕数据安全治理规则博弈呈现加剧态势,引发全球数据安全治理问题。各国际行为体虽然已经意识到数据安全治理的重要性,但对全球数据安全治理并未形成统一的治理框架。全球数据安全治理仅仅由单边、双边和多边框架以及贸易规则拼凑而成,相关治理议题在公民个人、社会、经济以及国家安全等多个层面相继涌现。多领域多维度的数据安全问题难免造成治理主体利益诉求的差异,也导致全球数据安全治理出现了规则碎片化、机制效用不足、治理乏力等问题。与此同时,个别国家的数据霸权主义行为更是使得国际行为体难以凝聚共识,全球数据安全治理步履蹒跚,重视和加强对全球数据安全问题的治理迫在眉睫。中国高度重视数据安全的相关议题,由于中国在数据治理领域起步较晚,仍存在立法不完善、技术创新能力薄弱、国际合作不足、治理乏力等问题。中国需要全面、系统地分析影响数据安全的各种重大风险因素,准确把握全球数据安全趋势,进一步优化中国在全球数据安全治理中的策略选择。     

关于在监所管理中引入数据挖掘技术的思考

信息资源被列为国家信息化要素的第一位，信息资源的开发利用是国家信息化的核心任务。随着近二十多年来公安监管信息化建设的不断发展，“监所数据库”建设及应用得到了长足的发展，对于监管工作的支撑与保障作用日益凸显。然而，在面对监管工作中日益积累的各类数据，如何进一步从海量的数据中提取有用的数据，尽可能的挖掘数据中存在的潜在价值，正是当前监管信息化工作的重点之一，在监所管理中引入数据挖掘技术正是为了顺应这种需求背景而展开的研究。     

美国金融危机对东亚新兴经济体的贸易传染渠道分析

美国金融危机到底以何种方式在全球传播，以至于演变成全球经济海啸，一直是近几年学术界所关注的问题之一。本文以美国金融危机对外传播的贸易传染渠道为切人点，分析了美国金融危机通过贸易伙伴型传染和贸易竞争对手型传染这两个贸易传染子渠道对东亚新兴经济体的溢出程度。对面板数据进行的GLS实证结果显示，美国金融危机通过贸易传染渠道的溢出，与大部分东亚新兴经济体经济波动之间存在10％以上显著性水平的相关性，因而贸易传染渠道是美国金融危机对东亚溢出的一个重要机制。     

A Longitudinal Investigation of Associations Between Boys’ Pubertal Timing and Adult Behavioral Health and Well-Being

To extend research linking pubertal timing and adolescent health outcomes, this study examines boys’ pubertal timing and subsequent interpersonal success and health behaviors in mid adulthood. Past research has shown that boys’ pubertal timing is associated with both positive and negative developmental outcomes in the short term, and so it is unclear how pubertal timing is consequential for adjustment across the long term. Data from 460 boys from the Terman Life-Cycle Study were examined over a 39-year period to relate age of pubertal onset to later marital success, career success, and adult health behaviors. Boys who reached puberty earlier than their peers achieved greater success in their careers and experienced more satisfaction in their marriages. Early-developing boys were not found to be more likely than their peers to smoke cigarettes or drink alcohol as adults. Findings are discussed in terms of the importance of pubertal timing for life-span development.Keiko Taga is a doctoral student at the Department of Psychology at University of California, Riverside. Her major research interests are social and psychological predictors of health and longevityCharlotte Markey is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at Rutgers University. She received her Ph.D. from the University of California at Riverside in 2002. Her research focuses on social and personality influences on healthHoward S. Friedman is Distinguished Professor of Psychology at the University of California, Riverside, where he directs a large project on health and longevity across the life-span. He has authored or edited ten books, with a focus on health psychology, personality, and nonverbal charisma     

Family Structure and Problem Behavior of Adolescents and Young Adults: A Growth-Curve Study

In the present longitudinal 3-wave study of 1274 adolescents and young adults, aged 12–24 at the 1st wave, it is examined whether youngsters from intact versus postdivorce families show long-term differences in internalizing and externalizing problems. Furthermore, possible differences in the development of this problem behavior between offspring from intact and postdivorce families are examined, i.e., possible differences in growth curves of internalizing and externalizing problems are investigated. Longitudinal multilevel analyses reveal long-term differences in internalizing and externalizing problems according to family structure. Adolescents and young adults growing up in postdivorce families display more internalizing and externalizing problem behavior than youngsters of intact families. The development of these 2 types of problem behavior does not differ by gender or family structure. That is, the shape of the growth curves of internalizing and externalizing problem behavior is similar for boys and girls and also for youngsters from intact and postdivorce families. Inge VanderValk is a Postdoc Researcher at the Department of Child and Adolescent Studies, Utrecht University, the Netherlands. She received her Ph.D. in 2004 from Utrecht University. Her major research interests include associations between adolescent adjustment and parental marital quality and parental divorce. Ed Spruijt is an Associate Professor at the University of Utrecht. He received his Ph.D. in 1983 from Utrecht University. His major research interests are the consequences of parental divorce and visitation arrangements on children. Martijn de Goede is an associate Professor at Utrecht University, Department of Methodology and Statistics. He received his Ph.D. in 1988 from Utrecht University. His major research interests are occupational and relational life courses of youngsters. Cora Maas is an Assistent Professor at Utrecht University, Department of Methodology and Statistics. She received her PH.D. in 1992 in Utrecht from Utrecht University. Her major interests are: multilevel analysis (theory and applications). Wim Meeus is full Professor of Adolescent Development at Utrecht University. He received his Ph.D. in 1984 from Utrecht University. His major research interests are personality, identity, and relationships in adolescence.     

On the Robustness and Validity of Groups

In response to Nagin's comment on our paper, Methodological Sensitivities to Latent Class Analysis of Long-Term Criminal Trajectories, we reconsider the robustness and validity of group-based approaches to criminal trajectories and introduce additional issues for future research. We emphasize the limitations of typological approaches and the dangers of reifying the idea of distinct offender groupings for research and policy. We also clarify misunderstandings about the use of hierarchical linear models for studying trajectories of crime. Our basic conclusion is that methods in criminology need to be more tightly linked with theory.     

Time-Varying Risk Factors for Reassault Among Batterer Program Participants

This study uses longitudinal data to identify risk markers for reassault among batterer program participants. Data are from 308 men and their partners collected at five, 3-month intervals. Time-varying situational and behavioral risk factors, as well as time-invariant individual characteristics, are examined. The most influential risk markers, in terms of relative risk and level of statistical significance, were time-varying: 2 measures of the man's drunkenness during the follow-up interval in which the reassault occurred (OR: 3.5-16.3; p > .0005). Other included time-varying batterer characteristics had no significant effect on reassault. Two significant time-invariant batterer risk factors were (1) severe psychopathology and (2) a history of non-domestic-violence arrest, both measured at intake. Results suggest that batterers' drinking behavior after program intake may provide an important and easily observed marker for risk of reassault and that prediction of reassault with individual risk factors at program intake remains problematical.     

Methods for Understanding and Analyzing NIBRS Data

The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) is an incident-basedcrime reporting program for local, state, and federal law enforcementagencies. Within each criminal incident, NIBRS captures information onoffenses, victims, offenders, property, and persons arrested, as well asinformation about the incident itself. The ability to link and analyze thisdetailed information is a significant improvement to the existing UniformCrime Reporting (UCR) summary reporting system. As one might expect,however, this increase in crime data significantly complicates the life ofthe data analyst, particularly when cross tabulating the NIBRS data. To dealwith the complexity of NIBRS data, one must understand its structure. Thisarticle provides an overview of the NIBRS structure and methods formaneuvering within it to present and interpret correctly cross tabulationsof the NIBRS data.     

Examining Space–Time Interaction in City-Level Homicide Data: Crack Markets and the Diffusion of Guns Among Youth

This paper examines the linkage between crack market activity and gunhomicide suggested by Blumstein (1995), who argues that the arrival ofcrack stimulated an increased availability of guns among juveniles. Thisgreater availability of guns, the argument continues, is responsible for thesharp upswing in juvenile homicide experienced in the United States in themid-1980s. Using city-level data on crack arrests and gun-related juvenilehomicide, we fit a change-point version of the Bass (1969) model ofinnovation diffusion. We find that, in most large American cities, thediffusion process for crack cocaine experienced an onset of dramatic growththat was followed by a similar, slightly slower growth in gun homicidescommitted by juveniles. We further use cluster analysis to find that thespatial patterning of the two processes is similar, starting on the East andWest Coasts and working their way toward other regions of the nation. Gunuse in homicide among slightly older offenders (ages 18–24) alsoexperienced a change at roughly the same time as the juveniles, but the rateof diffusion was considerably milder than for the younger group; offendersages 25 or older generally show no growth in gun-related homicide whatsoever. In addition, there is no detectable surge in juvenile nongun homicide activity. Based on these findings, we conclude that the crack cocaine markets–gun availability linkage is highly plausible, and we suggest directions for future research in clarifying the dynamics of the late-1980s surge in juvenile homicide.     

Opinion formation in foreign policy: the Swiss experience

Applying John Zaller's model of opinion formation to survey data covering 15 years (1981–95) of direct democracy in Switzerland, this paper provides a contribution to the debate about opinion formation in foreign policy. On the one hand, the Swiss experience contradicts the widespread view that citizens are poorly informed about and little interested in foreign affairs. On the other hand, direct democracy often translates into governmental defeats in this field. We address these mixed results and show that opinion formation in foreign policy is not a special case, and differs from that in domestic policy only with respect to the circumstances under which it occurs. In particular, we highlight the unusual type and level of conflict within the elite on foreign policy issues, which translates into distinct patterns of attitudes among the public.