Swedish quantitative criminology in the 1990s: A brief overview

Quantitative criminology research published in Sweden in the 1990s is reviewed and put in the context of major Swedish traditions in quantitative criminological research. Sweden has a strong tradition in sophisticated longitudinal and ecological research which continues into the 1990s. Other traditionally prominent areas of Swedish quantitative research include studies of crime trends, violence, and youth criminality. Traditionally Swedish quantitative criminology has been dominated by studies using official statistics and criminal records as data. In the 1990s there has been a significant upswing in survey studies, motivated partly by an increased interest in questions of etiology and crime prevention. More fundamental research on the causes of crime, including new longitudinal studies, and more evaluations of crime prevention initiatives are needed.     

Subject index : Volume 25 (1984)

Biostatistical Parameters such as the paternal markers in the child (PM), individual exclusion change (IEC) probability of incidental involvement (Z), probability of paternity (POP), plausibility of paternity according to Essen-Möller (PLEM) and paternity index (PI) are defined and discussed in respect to their application in cases of disputed paternity. In order to calculate these parameters for up to 24 marker systems, including HLA under strict observation of the linkage disequilibrium, a computer programme in BASIC has been developed.     

Voltammetric analysis of luminescent markers in gunshot residues

Currently, SEM-EDS is used to detect gunshot residue (GSR) from the presence of Ba, Pb, and Sb in the sample. However, the development of new nontoxic ammunition (NTA) has prevented conventional metals from being found. In this work, we aim to determine the presence of an inorganic luminescent chemical marker based on rare earth in gunshot residues using the technique of squarewave voltammetry (SWV). After firing, the luminescent complex [(Eu₂Zr)(btc)₃(Hbtc)_0.5.6H₂O], which is used as a chemical marker, can be detected under a UV lamp. An aqueous solution with 0.1 mol L⁻¹ KCl as supporting electrolyte can be easily collected on carbon paste electrode surfaces for SWV analysis A = 100 mV, f = 10 Hz, and step potential of 5 mV are required. The luminescent marker incorporated into the carbon paste electrode showed two anodic peak currents in the region of 0.4 V (vs Ag/AgCl) and at 0.75 V (vs Ag/AgCl) and also a cathodic one in 0.4 V (vs Ag/AgCl). SEM-EDS was able to analyze the same voltammetric results for conventional and nontoxic ammunition containing the luminescent marker. Therefore, voltammetry and SEM-EDS are valid for detecting the new residue marker in GSR. Despite this, the electrochemical method is still more advantageous because of its low cost and lack of expensive equipment and supplies in forensic laboratories.     

法医学混合斑研究进展

混合斑是性侵案件中常见生物检材,对其分析结果的解释是法医学检验中的难点之一。混合斑的种类较多,多个个体或多种体液、分泌液形成混合斑的提取、分离方法比较复杂。目前,法医学用于对混合斑量化评估主要应用杂合型均衡比和混合比例两个参数,而其分析受多种因素的影响。分析常用的遗传标记包括:常染色体和Y染色体STR,SNP,mt DNA,INDEls等。统计分析方法主要有似然率法(LR)以及随机男子不能被排除率法(RMNE)。混合斑分析软件的出现,有助于对检验结果的分析和判断。本文对相关文献进行综述,意在为混合斑的研究和鉴定提供参考和借鉴。     

Y-STR遗传标记在大家系中的突变

目的调查大家系中Y-STR基因座在减数分裂等位基因传递过程中的突变现象。方法收集一个林姓父系家系的163个男性个体口腔拭子样本,采用AGCU Y24荧光检测试剂盒(AGCU Y24体系)进行22个Y-STR遗传标记分型。AGCU Y24体系包含YfilerTM复合扩增试剂盒(Yfiler体系)的全部16个YSTR遗传标记。比较该家系内男性个体两两之间的Y-STR分型差异。结果该林姓家系163个男性个体在Yfiler和AGCU Y24体系分别获得20和30种单倍型,男性个体两两之间单倍型差异率分别为0.9105和0.922 7,平均遗传标记差异数目分别为6.582 1个和9.824 8个。男性个体两两之间的单倍型差异率随着减数分裂次数增多而增加。结论 Y-STR突变会使同一父系男性个体的Y-STR基因分型产生差异,随着减数分裂次数增多差异增加。     

Tracking individuals and households: longitudinal features of Danseong household register data

Household registers, which were compiled every three years and contained a variety of demographic information, are invaluable sources with which to investigate family and demographic behaviors of historical populations in Korea, especially during the period of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Linking three sets of household registers that covered the area of Danseong from 1780 to 1786, in this study we examine longitudinal features of Korean household registers. We assess the degree of attrition over six years at both individual and household level, and identify social and demographic characteristics associated with attrition. Our investigation shows a considerable degree of attrition of individuals and households over six years which is significantly associated with the social status of individuals and the household heads. We supplement the analysis of exits with the analysis of new entrances, which shows that in each year of register a substantial number of individuals, comparable to the size of individuals and households lost, were newly added. Those who newly entered the registers are very similar in their characteristics to those who exited the registers. We discuss the implications of our findings for studies that rely on Korean household registers to examine family and demographic behaviors of historical populations in Korea and East Asia.     

Is Violence Bad for Your Health? An Assessment of Chronic Disease Outcomes in a Nationally Representative Sample

Longitudinal offending research has grown substantially in the last two decades. Despite this increased scholarly attention, longitudinal investigations of the effects of offending on physical health have not kept pace. Acknowledging the intersections of criminology, criminal justice, and public health, this study examines the relationship between violent offending and chronic diseases among a nationally representative longitudinal sample of young adults. Results suggest that variation across offender typologies (i.e. adolescence-limited, adult-onset, and consistent violence during youth and young adulthood) significantly predicts experiencing chronic disease in early adulthood, with the risk being the most pronounced among those individuals, who demonstrate violence continuity. Study limitations and policy implications are discussed.     

Bullying in Childhood,Externalizing Behaviors,and Adult Offending: Evidence From a 30-Year Study

This study examined the developmental processes linking childhood bullying to criminal offending in adulthood, using data from a 30-year longitudinal study. The linkages between bullying in childhood and three criminal offending outcomes in adulthood were estimated both before and after control for a range of confounding factors. A series of protective factors that potentially mediated these linkages were also examined. The results of the study showed that while the majority of the association between childhood bullying and adult offending could be explained by confounding factors including childhood externalizing behavior, there was evidence for direct linkages from bullying to violent offending and arrest/conviction. There was little evidence to suggest mediation of the associations. The results suggest that bullying prevention requires interventions aimed specifically at bullying behavior.     

基于质量标志物的白芍配方颗粒量值传递规律及工艺优化研究

目的 研究白芍配方颗粒生产过程中白芍质量标志物的量值传递规律,优化其制备工艺。方法 通过白芍质量标志物6个成分含量及转移率,分析白芍饮片-提取液-浓缩液-干膏粉-配方颗粒中的量值传递关系,寻找生产过程中关键影响因素;并以出膏率、质量标志物的含量为考察指标,结合信息熵赋权法优化工艺关键参数。结果 浓缩和制粒两个过程中,6种成分含量略下降,但无显著性差异（P>0.05）,且转移率相对较高;提取过程中,氧化芍药苷、芍药内酯苷、芍药苷、没食子酰芍药苷、苯甲酰芍药苷等5种成分含量分别下降44.00%、24.74%、27.50%、19.57%、37.25%,其中芍药苷、没食子酰芍药苷、苯甲酰芍药苷等3种成分含量有显著性差异（P<0.05）,且氧化芍药苷的平均转移率为51.98%,相对较低;干燥过程中,6种成分含量均有降低趋势,其中芍药内酯苷、芍药苷、没食子酰芍药苷、苯甲酰芍药苷等4种成分的转移率分别降低10.79%、11.29%、15.45%、10.95%,均有显著性差异（P<0.05）;提示关键过程为提取和干燥过程,进一步确定关键影响因素为提取时间和干燥温度。通过优化,确定最佳工艺为“白芍饮片加10倍量水,浸泡30 min后,煎煮40 min,再加8倍量水,煎煮40 min;70℃减压浓缩至相对密度为1. 07~1. 09 g/mL,以进风温度为140℃进行喷雾干燥;加适量糊精,混合均匀,干法制粒”。经过优化,芍药内酯苷、芍药苷、没食子酰芍药苷、苯甲酰芍药苷等转移率在提取过程中分别增加16.73%、9.50%、12.92%、7.48%,均有显著性差异（P<0.01）,在干燥过程中分别增加15.68%、11.80%、11.69%、10.42%,均有显著性差异（P<0.01）。结论 优化的工艺稳定、重复性好,白芍质量标志物中6种成分很大程度上得到保留,白芍配方颗粒的整体质量得到提升,为之后的生产和质量控制提供科学参考。