两性收入差异的长期变动趋势及影响因素分析

性别平等问题一直为中国政府所关注,中国妇女的社会经济地位也自1949年以来有了根本性的改善。然而,收入的性别不公现象依然比较严重。本文利用"中国健康与营养调查"数据,分析1989-2006年间两性收入的特征、变化轨迹及差异的决定因素。多层模型分析结果表明,女性收入相当于男性收入的70-80%左右。形成差异的原因是多方面的,其中纯粹的性别歧视依然存在。     

Macroeconomic performance,political trust and the Great Recession: A multilevel analysis of the effects of within‐country fluctuations in macroeconomic performance on political trust in 15 EU countries, 1999–2011

Recent cross‐national comparative studies have found no effect of countries’ macroeconomic performances on trust in national political institutions, once political explanations (most notably corruption) are taken into account. Although political trust is not determined by the comparison of national economic performance to other countries, it is argued in this article that it is affected by comparisons to their own past performance. In a multilevel, fixed effects analysis of Eurobarometer data (21 waves in 15 European Union Member States between 1999 and 2011) the extent to which within‐country variations in economic performance affect political trust longitudinally is tested. Three major conclusions are reached. First, within‐country, longitudinal changes in performance (growth, deficits, unemployment and inflation) affect political trust. Second, the impact of macroeconomic performance is stronger among the lower educated. Third, even in times of economic duress, budgetary deficits tend to undermine political trust.     

Conflict of interest regulation in European parliaments: Studying the evolution of complex regulatory regimes

The growing complexity of parliamentary ethics regulation adopted over the last decades makes the systematic examination of its nature and the rationales underpinning regulatory choices an important endeavor. In this paper we introduce conceptualizations and measurements of conflict of interest (COI) regulation directed toward assuring the impartial and unbiased decisionmaking of national parliamentarians. We distinguish the strictness of rules, the nature of enforcement, sanctions, and transparency requirements as core elements defining COI regimes. Applying our framework to 27 European democracies, we select two cases for in‐depth analysis in which legislators chose very different solutions in response to growing pressures to regulate themselves, to inductively explore the drivers underpinning the choice of COI mechanisms: the United Kingdom, which adopted a highly transparency‐oriented regime, and Belgium, which adopted a highly sanction‐oriented COI regime. Echoing neo‐institutionalist perspectives, the longitudinal analyses indicate how the two democracies’ different institutional environments shape distinct answers to similar functional pressures.     

Intergenerational Transmission of Convictions for Different Types of Offenses

The Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development is a prospective longitudinal survey of 411 London males from age 8 to age 56. This article compares the convictions of 343 adult sons (searched up to the median age of 29) with the convictions of their fathers up to the same age. There was significant intergenerational transmission of convictions, since 43% of the sons of convicted fathers were themselves convicted, compared with 18% of the sons of unconvicted fathers. There was significant intergenerational transmission of burglary, serious and minor theft, violence, threatening behavior, carrying an offensive weapon, and serious motoring offenses. The most important mediators between parental and child convictions were the family renting rather than owning their own home, poor parental supervision, an antiestablishment attitude of the father, parental physical punishment of the child, and separation of the son from his father. Implications for the prevention of intergenerational transmission are drawn.     

Using Private Information to Predict Homelessness Entries: Evidence and Prospects

Do people at risk of homelessness have private information—information that social service agencies cannot credibly obtain—that helps predict whether they will become homeless? This article asserts that the answer to this question is yes: homeless people and people at risk of homelessness know important things about their future. Data from Journeys Home (JH), a pathbreaking longitudinal study of people experiencing homelessness and people at risk of homelessness in Australia, are used in this article. In many cases, the private information that participants have predicts entries better than the public information that agencies can obtain. Ways in which this private information can be used to improve service delivery are suggested.     

Changing Relations between Government and Citizen: Administrative Law and the Work of the Australian Commonwealth Ombudsman

This article examines the individual complaint‐taking role of the Australian Commonwealth Ombudsman over a 28 year period between 1977–2005. This study was conceived through a curiosity to determine how a 30 year old administrative law institution is reacting to accommodate a dramatically altered legal, political and economic environment. The suspicion was that, in the absence of legislative amendment to its jurisdiction and role, the Commonwealth Ombudsman must strategically change due to the demands of these external forces. The overall quantitative finding from the data analysis is that the internal strategic direction of the Commonwealth Ombudsman is indeed altering. In terms of dispute resolution it is increasingly using its discretionary powers to turn individual complainants back to government departments/agencies. The data analysis reveals that this administrative law institution is shifting from a reactive individual complaint taker to a proactive standard setter for government administration. This article suggests that this movement may impact upon citizen ‘rights’ or perceptions of their rights to have their individual complaints heard against government. This in turn may have a ripple effect for notions of democratic accountability and the relationship between the citizen and the state.     

Probabilistic SNP genotyping at low DNA concentrations

We present a statistical method for biallelic SNP genotyping that reduces the risk of wrong SNP calls and gives fewer no-calls. The method uses a symmetric multinomial logistic regression model with an intuitive graphical interpretation. Its probabilistic nature gives the user control over the accepted risk through the estimated genotype probabilities. We compared the performance of our method with the HID SNP Genotyper v.4.3.1 plug-in (HSG) (Thermo Fisher Scientific) and the additional criteria of the University of Copenhagen (UCPH) through a series of six DNA dilutions from 500 pg to 16 pg DNA. The HSG method made wrong calls from 62.5 pg DNA and below, while the UCPH method made wrong calls at 16 pg DNA. Our method allowed SNP genotyping of 16 pg DNA without making wrong calls. Depending on the DNA dilution, our method also reduced the number of no-calls by 70–96 % compared to UCPH method and 59–69 % compared to the HSG method. Our method can be used for any biallelic genotyping.     

The SNPforID 34-plex—Its ability to infer level of admixture in individuals

Forensic scientists use genetic individualization markers to include or exclude persons of interest in investigations. However, when there are no suspects due to absence of database matches or eye-witness information, prediction of biogeographical ancestry can be a valuable investigative tool. The SNPforID 34-plex uses 34 autosomal markers to predict ancestry from three geographic regions, Africa, Europe and East Asia. However, its ability to identify levels of admixture within individuals is unclear. We tested the 34-plex assay in 56 individuals from 15 families with varying levels of self-declared Asian/European admixed ancestry. STRUCTURE 2.3.4 was used for population structure analysis and cluster information provided inferences on levels of admixture. Chi-square tests were performed to evaluate the ability of the SNPforID 34-plex to predict level of admixture. The average/SD Asian and European contribution for individuals self-declared as first generation since admixture was 0.46/0.13 and 0.54/0.13, respectively. As expected, the average European contribution increased for individuals of 1/4, 1/8 and 1/16 Asian/European ancestries – 0.78/0.13, 0.89/0.05 and 0.91/0.03, respectively. There were no significant differences between observed and expected average contribution from each ancestry. However, individual outliers were observed, which could have been misclassified if analyzed separately. These results suggest the 34-plex can be a reliable tool to predict levels of admixture; however caution is required when an individual sample is investigated. A larger number of markers, combined with increased sample sizes comprising varying levels of admixture of different biogeographical ancestries, are required to enhance the ability to predict an individual's level of biogeographical ancestry.     

Limitations of the KISS Principle and a Strong Organizational Society: A Rejoinder to Wollebæk and Selle

In their discussion of my article, Dag Wollebæk and Per Selle agree with my central point that changes in the institutional and socio-political context are likely to affect the engagement-values relation over time, and that more theoretical and empirical research is required to better understand the underlying connections. They then highlight a number of weaknesses in my empirical analysis. First, they criticize the operationalization of the isolated–connected distinction I borrow from Paxton, and point to the scope of engagement as a way of ‘keeping it simple’. Second, they express disbelief in the apparent strength of the correlations at the individual level compared to the aggregate level in my analysis, and assert that an ‘organizational society of broad scope’ is primary. In this rejoinder, I briefly discuss both comments.     

现行个人所得税制设计缺陷与完善

我国现行个人所得税制中在资本所得方面存在着轻征税或不征税,而在劳动所得方面存在着重征税;免税额方面搞"一刀切";费用扣除不规范;税率复杂;这些都有违"公平"原则。为此,本文提出:实行分类与综合相结合的税制结构模式;拓宽征税范围;规范税前费用扣除制度;修改税率等改革措施,以进一步完善我国现行个人所得税制。