Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.     

地方工科院校毕业设计“创新模式和创新能力”的探索与实践

毕业设计对工科院校学生创新能力的培养起着举足轻重的作用,阐述了现有毕业设计的局限性与不足之处,针对如何培养学生的创新能力进行了探讨,分析了在毕业设计类型划分、保障制度以及实施步骤等环节中的创新能力培养的方法,通过开展多种模式的毕业设计以更好地培养学生的创新能力,最后通过建立完整的毕业设计操作规范和切实可行的实施步骤,以达到改革现有毕业设计的目的。     

基于DEA模型的汽车产业集群的效率研究

本文利用数据包络分析法的CCR和BBC模型,对我国长三角等六个主要汽车产业集群及六大汽车企业集团的效率进行了实证分析。结果表明,这六个主要汽车产业集群的效率是不相同的,并由此提出了若干政策建议。     

论前期物业服务合同当事人之认定——一个合同示范文本引起的思考

《物业管理条例》第二十一条规定,前期物业服务合同的当事人为开发商与物业服务企业。但《北京市前期物业服务合同（示范文本）》却主张,业主作为甲方将前期物业管理委托给开发商,开发商作为乙方承担前期物业管理的责任,提供前期物业服务。因此,此二者在合同当事人问题上就产生了分歧。然而,无论从学理上分析,还是从实践的层面考察,第二十一条的规定均具合理性。     

针对海量数据的数字取证模型

随着互联网技术的发展,电子产品被广泛应用在各个领域。与此同时,涉及到数字证据的犯罪案件日益增多。目前,侦查取证人员面临的巨大挑战是需要在短时间内在存有海量数据的大容量存储介质中进行搜查取证活动,传统的数字取证模型难以应对。     

论我国民事诉讼模式和程序的变革——从模式选择到程序完善

近现代市场经济的发展和社会关系的日益复杂化,将导致传统解纠方式和社会调整机制无法满足社会的需要,法律的专门化和职业化成为历史的必然。在西方法律传统中,法律的施行被委托给一群特别的人,他们或多或少地在专职的职业基础上从事法律活动。20世纪60年代以来,众多的国家和地区开始对民事诉讼法进行修正,对民事诉讼模式及程序进行变革...     

食品质量与安全专业人才培养模式探讨——“四维一体”应用型复合人才培养模式创新实验基地的构建

基于"地方性"、"应用型"人才培养定位和"注重学理,亲近业界"的人才培养理念,紧密围绕地方经济建设和社会需求,结合专业特点,探索建立食品质量与安全专业"四维一体"人才培养新模式。即"分类定向、学工融通、资源整合、开放管理"为四维,"理工管结合"为一体的复合型人才培养模式。培养食品行业急需的"精食品、强检验、善管理"的应用型复合人才,以服务于长三角经济建设。     

警察职业教育的重建——1+n+1警察教育模式的构想

文章尝试提出建立一种谋求"教学练战"一体化的警察职业教育模式,这种模式的优点在于最大限度地贴近公安工作实际,在教学内容、教学方法、教学机构、教学管理和教学评价的全过程实现"教、学、练、战"一体化,从而使公安院校最大限度地实现与公安工作运作方式的对接,成为真正的警察学校。     

The inadequate legislative response to e-signatures

This article examines the two most influential international initiatives on electronic signatures (UNCITRAL’s 1996 Model Law on Electronic Commerce and the 1999 EU Electronic Signature Directive). It considers whether the legislative approaches in Australia and the United Kingdom based on these initiatives are helpful in deciding whether lower level signature methods such as simple email messages are likely to satisfy a legal requirement for a signature. The conclusion reached is that they are unhelpful. The article goes on to consider whether legislative amendments based on UNCITRAL’s 2001 Model Law on Electronic Signatures or the 2005 UN Convention on the Use of Electronic Communications in International Contracts would improve the identified weaknesses. It concludes that such an update would clarify some issues, but that overall it will not solve the difficulties. The article ends with a brief speculation on the likely attributes of a more helpful approach.