建构主义观下的数学教学论

本从建构主义基本思想出发,重新认识数学本质和数学教学,认为无论是数学创建和数学学习都是个人建构与社会建构相统一的过程,数学、个人、社会三在教学中的关系应当是双向性的,并提出以“在做数学中学数学”作为数学教学设计的基本思想。     

社会形态：数学上的揭示、定义和规律

该文以全资源发展模型为基础,围绕经济活动的开展,演绎研究了资源与社会形态的相互关系,揭示了社会形态发展时序的规律及其本质原因。     

从模式化的八旗制度看满族法律程序意识

满族作为中国封建社会最后一个王朝的建立者,其政治制度、法律制度和民族文化一直是东亚各国研究的热门问题。从法文化的研究角度,对满族入关以前的政治制度和法律文化进行研究和分析,以八旗制度为切入点,思考满族共同体的模式化思维方式和法律程序意识之间的内在联系。     

论法律价值的数量化

现代社会通过科学和货币经济的影响,形成了现代生活风格的算计特征,即把世界设想成一个巨大的算术问题,把发生的事件和事物质的规定性当成一个数字系统。无论是现代人建构的知识学还是通过货币影响了的现代生活,都充斥着定量的、算计的特征。当现代的知识和生活都已数量化了,法律价值自然也会数量化。     

Contagion in the Transpacific Shipping Network: International Networks and Vulnerability Interdependence

To what extent are states vulnerable to disruptions in trade networks? We investigate this question by simulating attacks on the intermodal shipping network, whose ubiquitous containers carry 80% to 90% of all global trade in goods. While this network has reduced transportation costs and spurred international trade, the dependence of modern economies on ship-borne trade means disruptions in one region may produce considerable costs for states in another region. We simulate an “optimal terrorist” that learns about the conditions under which attacks on the network in other parts of the world generate economic losses to the United States. The study illustrates that by adopting a network- and process-oriented ontology, the study of interdependence may better anticipate new sources of interstate and transnational conflict.     

Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level

This paper develops new fundamental models for forecasting presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections at the state level using fundamental data. Despite the fact that our models can be used to make forecasts of elections earlier than existing models and they do not use data from polls on voting intentions, our models have lower out-of-sample forecasting errors than existing models. Our models also provide early and accurate probabilities of victory. We obtain this accuracy by constructing new methods of incorporating various economic and political indicators into forecasting models. We also obtain new results about the relative importance of approval ratings, economic indicators, and midterm effects in the different types of races, how economic data can be most meaningfully incorporated in forecasting models, the effects of different types of candidate experience on election outcomes, and that second quarter data is as predictive of election outcomes as third quarter data.     

基于CT扫描并图像重组青少年锁骨胸骨端骨龄数学模型

目的利用我国青少年锁骨胸骨端骨骺发育变化规律,探讨CT容积再现(volume rendering,VR)数据与生物学年龄的相关性,并建立推断骨龄的数学模型。方法通过对我国华东、华南地区684名15~25周岁青少年双侧锁骨胸骨端进行CT薄层扫描并VR三维图像重组,测量并计算双侧锁骨胸骨端骨骺最长径、干骺端最长径及其长度比、骨骺面积、干骺端面积及其面积比等数据,并建立骨龄推断的数学模型。再将50例训练样本代入数学模型,检验模型的准确性。结果左、右两侧骨骺与干骺端长度比、面积比在同一年龄组男女性间差异具有统计学意义(P0.05)。建立的数学模型表明锁骨胸骨端骨骼的发育规律与生物学年龄具有高度的相关性,所有模型的准确率都高于70.5%(±1.0岁)和82.5%(±1.5岁)。结论建立的骨龄数学模型的可操作性强、准确性较高。这不仅可与图谱法相互印证和支持,提高骨龄推断的准确性;同时,该方法对未来研究其他单一部位骨龄推断具有重要的意义。     

体态与足迹足长、足宽的关系研究

足是人身体的一部分。每个人的头、躯干、四肢都是按一定比例生长的,所以,人的体态与足之间会存在一定的关系,根据这个关系我们可以实验总结出利用足迹分析体态的诸多方法。通过在本单位收集大量平面足迹样本,对足迹样本的足长、足宽和捺印人的体重进行测量、记录,运用excel软件建立足迹数据和体态的一元线性回归关系,针对方程的回归显著性进行相应的F检验,为本单位和友邻单位利用现场足迹分析体态提供可靠依据。     

Structural Models of Voter Behavior in the 2000 Polish Presidential Election

Abstract

The data of the 2000 Polish presidential election have been analyzed according to Newman and Sheth's model of voter's choice behavior (1985). Although this model was originally interpreted within the statistical perspective of discriminant analysis, it could be also extended within the framework of structural equation methodology. Namely, if the seven cognitive domains (Issues and Policies, Emotional Feelings, Candidate Image, Current Events, Epistemic Issues, Social Imagery and Epistemic Issues) are assumed to be distinct and separate, they can be treated as independent (predictive) variables with the voter's intention as a dependent or predicted variable. The three models were tested and the resuits of path analysis show the complex pattern of mutual interdependence between the cognitive domains and voter behavior. The specificity of the cause-effect relationship obtained by the structural equation methodology presented in the paper allows us to put forward some practical suggestions regarding the way electoral campaigns should be conducted.     

Models of Voter Behavior in Traditional and Evolving Democracies

ABSTRACT

The data of Polish, Slovenian, and U.S. political elections have been analyzed according to Newman's model of voter's choice behavior (Newman & Sheth 1985; Newman 1999). The results of the research were interpreted with the methodology of structural equations, where cognitive domains, the media, and the emotional feelings toward the candidates were variables in mutual cause-and-effect relationships. The results of the analyses demonstrated the differences in the importance of the media for the election process. In established democracies like in the U.S. the media play an important role as independent means of delivering information, while in evolving democracies media are not independent and are oftentimes used by the competing political sides as an element in electoral battles. The article also presents proposals for studying voter behaviors within constructivist and realistic paradigms as well as some suggestions for marketing practice.