Probabilistic forecasting of political events

Political conflicts are modeled as Markovian processes where the states are the possible outcomes and the forecast is the steady‐state probability of each outcome. The input variables are the power of the actors, the salience of the issue to the actors and the desirability of each possible outcome to the actors.

The modeling flexibility of the proposed method is verified by its application to twenty‐eight actual conflicts that include economic and political issues resolved on national and international settings. The predictive capability of the method is established by close agreement between probability intervals of the forecasts and the actual outcomes.     

Evaluating Simulant Materials for Understanding Cranial Backspatter from a Ballistic Projectile

In cranial wounds resulting from a gunshot, the study of backspatter patterns can provide information about the actual incidents by linking material to surrounding objects. This study investigates the physics of backspatter from a high‐speed projectile impact and evaluates a range of simulant materials using impact tests. Next, we evaluate a mesh‐free method called smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) to model the splashing mechanism during backspatter. The study has shown that a projectile impact causes fragmentation at the impact site, while transferring momentum to fragmented particles. The particles travel along the path of least resistance, leading to partial material movement in the reverse direction of the projectile motion causing backspatter. Medium‐density fiberboard is a better simulant for a human skull than polycarbonate, and lorica leather is a better simulant for a human skin than natural rubber. SPH is an effective numerical method for modeling the high‐speed impact fracture and fragmentations.     

CONCENTRATED DISADVANTAGE,TRADITIONAL MALE ROLE MODELS,AND AFRICAN‐AMERICAN JUVENILE VIOLENCE*

In a stagnating urban economy, Elijah Anderson's (1999) Code of the Street depicts a disadvantaged environment where residents face high levels of joblessness, poverty, racial residential isolation, and family disruption. Anderson argues that the loss of job opportunities for African‐American men deprived younger generations of traditional male role models. That is, in a disadvantaged urban setting with a lack of male role models participating in legitimate labor market activity, many young people may turn to violence. Drawing on insights from Anderson's ethnographic work, we assess the generality of Anderson's claims more broadly and explore the potential connection between his work and the macrolevel research on urban violence. Specifically, we explore the influence of male role models (older, employed black males) and the concentration of urban disadvantage on black juvenile arrests for violence across multiple cities in 2000. Overall, we find empirical support for Anderson's concerns over the removal of traditional male role models from urban areas as a result of concentrated disadvantage. Specifically, we find that the presence of traditional male role models reduces the rates of African‐American youth violence. Additionally, our measure of traditional male role models mediates the relationship between structural disadvantage and juvenile violence. We discuss the contributions of Anderson's work to the macrolevel study of urban violence.     

The Influence of Emotional Intelligence on Negotiation Outcomes and the Mediating Effect of Rapport: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach

Although early research on negotiation focused on cognition and decision‐making processes, recently, negotiation scholars have started to pay attention to the importance of emotion in negotiation and have suggested that emotional intelligence is likely to improve negotiation performance. Few studies, however, have tested the relationship between emotional intelligence and negotiation outcomes. This study contributes by empirically testing the influence of emotional intelligence on specific negotiation outcomes (joint gain, trust between parties, and the desire of parties to work together again) and also examines the mediating effects of rapport. We used a laboratory experimental design with 202 participants to test the hypotheses. We found that a negotiator's emotional intelligence was correlated with his or her counterpart's trust level and desire to work again but had no effect on joint gain. In addition, rapport fully mediated the relationship between emotional intelligence and desire to work again, and between emotional intelligence and trust.     

THE POWER OF DIVERSION: INTERMEDIATE SANCTIONS AND SENTENCING DISPARITY UNDER PRESUMPTIVE GUIDELINES*

Fiscal constraints and shifting political climates in corrections have recently led to a renewed interest in intermediate punishments. Despite their growing prevalence, though, relatively little empirical research has examined the judicial use of alternative sanctions as a sentencing option. By using 3 years of data from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing (PCS), this study investigates little‐researched questions regarding the use of sentencing alternatives among offenders and across contexts. Results indicate that male and minority offenders are the least likely to receive intermediate sanctions, both as a diversionary jail or prison sentence and as a substitute for probation. The probability of receiving an intermediate sanction also varies significantly across judges and court contexts and is related to county‐level funding for these programs, among other factors. Findings are discussed as they relate to contemporary theoretical perspectives on the perceived suitability of intermediate punishments and on the unique role that offender agency plays in the sentencing of these cases. Directions for future research are discussed.     

“A Plague on both Your Houses?”: Risks,Repeats and Reconsiderations of Urban Residential Burglary

Research has shown that mapping techniques are useful in forecasting future crime events. However, the majority of prospective mapping techniques has focused on the event-dependent influence of instigator incidents on subsequent incidents and does not explicitly incorporate the risk heterogeneity of the setting. The study here discussed is a modest attempt to address this issue by using a two-step process: first, using risk terrain modeling, we operationalized the “environmental backcloth,” (the risk heterogeneity of an area) to forecast locations of residential burglaries in the urban city of Newark, New Jersey. Second, using the near repeat calculator, we assessed the variability of underlying risk between different types of residential burglaries. A discussion of the findings and the joint utility of these approaches is provided.     

Can't get no satisfaction with the Westminster model? Winners,losers and the effects of consensual and direct democratic institutions on satisfaction with democracy

Are citizens in consensus democracies with developed direct democratic institutions more satisfied with their political system than those in majoritarian democracies? In this article, individual‐level data from the second wave of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and an updated version of Lijphart's multivariate measure of consensus and majoritarian democracy covering 24 countries are used to investigate this question. The findings from logistic multilevel models indicate that consensual cabinet types and direct democratic institutions are associated with higher levels of citizens' satisfaction with democracy. Furthermore, consensus democracy in these institutions closes the gap in satisfaction with democracy between losers and winners of elections by both comforting losers and reducing the satisfaction of winners. Simultaneously, consensus democracy in terms of electoral rules, the executive–legislative power balance, interest groups and the party system reduces the satisfaction of election winners, but does not enhance that of losers.     

Statistical Modeling of the Case Information From the Ohio Attorney General's Sexual Assault Kit Testing Initiative

The Ohio Attorney General's Sexual Assault Kit (SAK) Testing Initiative has resulted in nearly 14,000 kits being processed since the initiation of the project in 2012. A logistic regression model was fit to the data from 2500 SAKs in order to determine the probability of obtaining at least one Combined DNA Index System (CODIS) eligible DNA profile based on a number of predictor variables. The probability of obtaining at least one CODIS eligible DNA profile from an SAK varied as a function of (i) days to kit collection following a sexual assault; (ii) years to kit submission to the laboratory for testing following kit collection; (iii) the age of the victim; and (iv) the occurrence of victim‐reported consensual sex around the time of the assault and/or kit collection. These findings demonstrate the utility of the statistical modeling of data obtained from the “forklift” testing approach of sexual assault kits.     

人体内血醇浓度变化及其影响因素分析

目的探索饮酒后人体内血醇浓度(BAC)变化及其影响因素,建立BAC代谢的数学模型。方法采用顶空气相色谱氢火焰离子化检测器和内标曲线法测量酒后人体内的BAC,利用SPSS20.0和R软件对数据进行相关性分析并建立数学模型。结果女性的平均BAC消除速率为9.54mg/100m L/h,男性的平均BAC消除速率为12.19mg/100m L/h,女性消除速率小于男性,并且BAC消除速率与性别中等相关,与体重强相关,与年龄无关。通过构建混合效应模型可以准确的预测BAC,该模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)为1.60mg/100m L,其次利用决策树分析数据,其MAE为9.99mg/100m L。结论饮酒后人体内BAC消除速率与性别、体重有关,通过时间、饮酒量、性别、体重建立混合效应模型可以准确推断BAC。     

Narcotics and crime: A causal modeling approach

The present study examines the relationships between narcotics use and criminality utilizing a confirmatory structural equation modeling approach. Latentvariable and manifest-variable models are used to represent causal relationships between narcotics use and criminality in both the postaddiction and the pretreatment periods of the addiction career. Latent-variable models include a preexisting deviance construct as an exogenous factor, and manifest-variable models include a measure of drug trafficking, or dealing, as an influencing variable. Both inclusions are made as an attempt to minimize specification error in the models. The results are consistent in showing that, while simultaneous relationships between narcotics and criminality are clearly demonstrable, the prediction of either variable from the other across time cannot be demonstrated. It is concluded that causal relationships between narcotics and criminality are probably not characterized by an appreciable or identifiable time lag. Other theoretical considerations suggested by the modeling results are discussed, such as the role of idiosyncratic approaches to the economics of maintaining addition.